Climate change has been increasingly affecting the world in the last few decades, since the early 2000s policymakers have started to understand that they must take into account the implications of climate change on the world’s security and peace because climate change is now a matter of international security. With the expeditious rise in climate change, there has also been another area that has grown in importance which is artificial intelligence. AI is what all the hype is about these days. Technology has evolved into a new era, a new world, which is increasingly becoming more and more dependent on artificial intelligence. In this paper, the upside and downside of the involvement of AI in climate security are mentioned to reach an understanding of these new emerging concepts and their consequences for the world.
The main question we have to start with is, how on earth could AI ever help counter climate security threats? Well, the answer to that is complicated, to say the least, but to break it down; AI works by solving problems through learning patterns and coming up with actuate solutions. In that context, through feeding information to AI about climate change patterns, its effects, the insecurities caused by it, the pathways that lead to climate change, and most importantly the vulnerabilities caused by it we can try (hope) to come up with effective solutions.
AI can help significantly in addressing climate hazards. It enhances cost-efficiency by easily collecting data, particularly in poorer countries with limited infrastructure. AI can detect extreme weather patterns and climate changes through satellite images. Its accuracy surpasses human predictions by analyzing large datasets through machine learning, reducing human error. Additionally, AI can analyze both environmental and socio-economic data, improving early warning systems. In conflict-prone areas lacking weather stations, AI utilizes satellite imagery to study weather patterns. Financially, AI is advantageous, conserving resources for future climate mitigation due to limited funding for climate studies.
The benefit of AI in climate vulnerabilities and exposure starts with mentioning how it can help governments and international policymakers in designing adaptation measures that are more suitable and less risky. AI is fast, it saves time when a disaster is underway to use AI for finding solutions to a problem whereas humans would spend far more time and one too many arguments before coming to an agreed course of action. There have also been mentions of satellite images and their use through AI, for example, satellite images can be used to find which infrastructures were damaged during a disaster and which survived to form a report on affected areas and damages. These images can also be used to identify a safe route for affected people because when facing a disaster, finding a way to provide humanitarian aid to the affected people is the top priority and it is important to find effective disaster management techniques that are both cost-efficient and quick; AI is both. When a disaster hits, there has to be a well-functioning system through which relief can be provided to people depending on how much they are affected, for that a large number of data needs to be analyzed and assessments need to be done efficiently, AI can help with that as well. In terms of climate resilience, AI can provide an accurate analysis of which areas are more prone to be hit and which infrastructure will likely be affected so that mitigation measures can be taken to avoid both from happening.
There are also several benefits to using AI for detecting climate change-related grievances and tensions, starting from how AI can provide early signs of a conflict before it escalates which gives enough time to take proactive measures and find a suitable agreement for the parties involved. Since AI is such a broad tool it can also take into account the psychological mindsets of the communities and people involved which helps in making more effective adaptation policies for that certain area, these policies would be conflict-sensitive and would serve the purpose of bringing down tensions which are rising as a result of climate change. AI can be used in many areas, one of them can be to monitor social media trends, which could help policymakers by providing them an understanding of how the public is feeling and what sort of grievances exist in the minds of the people for them to be countered and dealt with. AI could also potentially provide a comprehensive analysis of which areas are becoming the root causes of conflicts in any given territory, for example, if the issue is water, land, or unemployment, AI can find suitable solutions for people of those areas which cater to their needs with the purpose of deescalating the conflict. Some additional benefits of AI are mentioned in the report i.e. how AI can help in the development of proactive measures; how AI can work in mitigating risks as well as in protecting vulnerable communities; how AI can provide a more inclusive analysis to counter climate change and work towards climate resilience.
Moving on to the drawbacks of using AI in climate hazards, one main issue highlighted is how AI cannot take out any biases from the data that has been provided to it so if the data lacks accuracy or if the data is incomplete then the AI could give a false prediction which could lead to potential disasters. Talking about disasters, in areas that have seen conflicts or human-made disasters, AI might struggle to pull an accurate prediction in the said territories. One point to note here is it is cheaper to sustain AI but it is expensive to install it, hence for countries that lack the resources to install AI, it is a struggle for them to adopt this technology. Most importantly, there’s also an irony in using AI to counter climate change. Let me explain, what is the cause of climate change? It’s the environmental degradation through human-induced activities. Now to build and run an AI model there would be a use of significant environmental resources and a large amount of energy would be required to keep it up and running. Hence it’s kind of an oxymoron in itself.
The drawback of using AI in climate vulnerabilities and exposure can also be that the data AI collects could be misused if the personal information of individuals reaches the wrong hands. Also, if governments decide to rely solely on AI to monitor climate change and come up with predictions and solutions to climate security issues while leaving the traditional forms of knowledge and analysis altogether then that could lead to potential risks of failures as well as inaccuracy. One hurdle in using AI to counter climate change lies in how to get people to trust the information that is being provided by the AI. Human beings are more likely than, not to be scared of the unknown and depending on Artificial intelligence instead of human cognition is a fairly new concept hence people might get skeptical and be less inclined to follow the solutions and measures that AI comes up with.
When discussing the benefits of AI in detecting climate change-related grievances and tensions there are also similar drawbacks that can be concluded from those benefits, using social media to analyze public opinion can be a short-sighted approach for backward countries where the internet is not easily accessible to everyone, that can lead to certain areas and their grievances being marginalized? The psychological aspect that was mentioned as a benefit can also lead to cultural insensitivity if it is not understood and analyzed by taking the correct contexts into account. Also, there can be misleading information available which could cause the AI tools to face difficulties in differentiating what is accurate and what is just baseless misinformation.
Another new concept that has emerged in this field is “AI for sustainability and sustainability of AI.” The argument posits that if AI can be used to sustain the climate, then focus must also be given to developing AI that is itself sustainable. This means addressing issues such as the carbon footprint and the computing power required for AI, ensuring they do not negatively impact the environment. Otherwise, it would be ironic to use AI to counter climate change while AI itself contributes to the problem.
To conclude, artificial intelligence has countless benefits when it comes to countering climate security challenges. AI, if used correctly can be a key instrument in overcoming the threats which are evolving as a result of climate change. But that can only be made possible if solutions are found for the possible drawbacks of using this technology.
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