5th Province? Pak-Afghan Relations

The bond between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a polygonal one, characterized by a rich tapestry of historical layers and underlying tensions, presenting a dynamic interplay that is ripe for further investigation. The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has long been marked by a complex interplay of historical, political, and security factors. At the heart of this correlation are shared cultural and ethnic ties, as well as a common border that has been a source of both cooperation and tension [1]. However, the recent escalation of tensions between the two countries has once again brought their relationship into sharp focus.

Ties further soured after the Taliban took power. Pakistan initially celebrated the departure of American forces from Afghanistan and the removal of the Ashraf Ghani administration. General Faiz Hameed and Prime Minister Imran Khan expressed optimism about the situation in Afghanistan. However, tensions arose when the Taliban’s actions did not meet Pakistan’s expectations, particularly in their treatment of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The relationship further deteriorated after the TTP carried out attacks on police stations in Peshawar and Karachi earlier this year [2].

One of the key factors driving this escalation is the changing dynamics within Afghanistan. The Taliban’s takeover and subsequent developments have significantly altered the power dynamics in the region, creating a new reality for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. On one hand, Pakistan has long been accused of providing support and sanctuary to the Taliban. This has been seen as a strategic depth for Pakistan, allowing it to exert its influence in the region and counter the influence of India. However, this approach has also been criticized for providing a safe haven for terrorist groups and undermining efforts towards regional stability. On the other hand, Pakistan has also been a crucial player in facilitating peace talks and negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban [3].

Moreover, the recent airstrikes and border clashes have also brought to the forefront the issue of cross-border terrorism. Howbeit, reports indicate that Al-Qaeda is utilizing Afghanistan as a “favorable environment” for fundraising, recruitment, and training of its members. Significantly, the U.N. Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, in the last week of January 2024, disclosed that the Al-Qaeda camp in the Afghan border province of Kunar is actively “conducting suicide bomber training” to aid the operations of TTP [4].

Moreover, the involvement of external powers in the region, particularly India’s growing presence in Afghanistan, has added a new layer of complexity to the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship. As India and Pakistan continue to compete for regional influence, Afghanistan has become a battleground for their proxy wars, further complicating the dynamics between the two countries.

Impact of Taliban Rule on Bilateral Relations

The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan has not only altered the region’s geopolitical landscape but also presented both countries with challenges and opportunities. Pakistan has historically had a complex relationship with the Taliban, involving support, competition, and disagreement. The group’s return to power has put Pakistan in a delicate balancing act, as it tries to leverage historical ties and shared affiliations while managing relationships with other stakeholders.

Furthermore, the reemergence of the Taliban has brought about new security challenges, especially about transnational militancy and the danger posed by organizations such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The porous border shared by Pakistan and Afghanistan has historically enabled the movement of militants, worsening security conditions on both sides.

Nevertheless, the Taliban’s control over significant areas of Afghan territory has raised concerns about the potential spillover effects on Pakistan’s security environment [5].

Shifts in Strategic Calculus

In the case of Pakistan, domestic political considerations play a significant role in shaping its policies towards Afghanistan. The military establishment holds considerable sway over Pakistan’s foreign policy decisions, including those about Afghanistan. The military views Afghanistan as a crucial arena for safeguarding Pakistan’s strategic interests, particularly its rivalry with India and concerns about encirclement. Additionally, Pakistan’s civilian leadership must navigate the intricate landscape of domestic politics, striking a balance between the interests of various stakeholders while ensuring stability and security[6].

Similarly, Afghanistan’s strategic calculations are influenced by internal power dynamics and regional alliances. The ability of the Afghan government to formulate and implement coherent policies toward Pakistan is influenced by factors such as ethnic rivalries, factionalism, and the enduring legacy of decades of conflict. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s relationships with neighboring countries, such as India, Iran, and the United States, exert significant influence on its strategic decisions concerning Pakistan. The Afghan government’s pursuit of strategic autonomy amidst competing regional interests adds another layer of complexity to bilateral relations [7].

Role of Non-State Actors

The TTP’s presence complicates Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, eroding trust and cooperation. Cross-border attacks fuel violence and strain relations, posing a threat to security and hindering peace efforts. Pakistan has consistently employed both Track-I and Track-II diplomatic channels to address the security challenges posed by the TTP, which operates from Afghanistan under the shadow of the TTA. However, despite sincere endeavors, these initiatives have consistently faced obstacles and have not yielded the desired outcomes. To draw global attention to the interconnectedness of the TTP and TTA, Pakistan’s Special Representative for the United Nations, Ambassador Munir Akram, formally approached the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on March 7, 2024 [8].

In his plea, Ambassador Akram emphasized the urgent need for the Taliban to sever ties with the TTP due to the associated global terrorism risks. During his address, Ambassador Akram highlighted the alarming statistics of 306 attacks in Pakistan in 2023, with 82% of them attributed to the TTP. He urged for a comprehensive investigation into the sources of funding and arms for the TTP. Additionally, he stressed the importance of prioritizing counter-terrorism efforts in engagements related to Afghanistan. It is crucial to recognize that the threat posed by the TTP is not limited to Pakistan alone. The connection between the TTP and the TTA enables other terrorist groups in Afghanistan, such as Al-Qaida, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), to become more active. This strategic alliance amplifies the security concerns not only for Pakistan but also for the broader region [9].

In Conclusion, the complex Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has been marked by years of mistrust, conflict, and occasional cooperation. Recent tensions highlight the need for deeper scholarly examination within evolving regional dynamics. Additionally, the role of regional actors like China, India, and the US in shaping the relationship requires further investigation.

Bibliography

Siddique, Q. (2011). Pakistan’s future policy towards Afghanistan: A look at strategic depth, militant movements and the role of India and the US (Research Report 2011:08). DIIS Report. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/59843

Karim, D. (2024, March 18). Ttp-tta nexus: A global security threat. South Asia Times. https://southasiatimes.org/ttp-tta-nexus-a-global-security-threat/

Baqai, H., Wasi, N., & Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Eds.). (2021). Pakistan-Afghanistan relations: Pitfalls and the way forward. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), Pakistan Office.

In a major rift, pakistan ramps up pressure on the taliban. (n.d.). United States Institute of Peace. Retrieved March 20, 2024, from https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/11/major-rift-pakistan-ramps-pressure-taliban.

Pakistan’s hard policy choices in afghanistan | crisis group. (2022, February 4). https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/pakistan/pakistans-hard-policy-choices-afghanistan

Hussain, E. (2022). Taliban 2. 0 and afghanistan–pakistan relations. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 9(3), 462–474. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970221130546

APP. (2024, March 7). Pakistan urges UNSC to ask Afghan Taliban to cut ties with TTP, eliminate terrorism. DAWN.COM. https://www.dawn.com/news/1819821

Ali, I., & Sadiq, M. (2023). The perils of non-state actors in pakistan: Assessing the risks of nuclear safety and security. International Journal of Nuclear Security., 8(1). https://doi.org/10.7290/ijns082376