“Absolutely Not” & the Future of Afghan Peace Process

The recent direct and unambiguous interview statement of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan “Absolutely Not” in response to the question over hosting US military airbases to be used against other countries is what has been advocated by him since post-9/11. He has been an explicit dissident of military solution for Afghanistan even in the days he was not in the decision-making process.  In the backdrop of change in White House, Biden’s announcement of troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan (though not a disengagement) on 20^th anniversary of 9/11 attacks and Imran Khan’s statement, it is pertinent to understand how the USA aspires to develop its alliances in future, yet in the presence of its policy ‘us Vs. them’.

Afghanistan, the heart of Asia, where the longest war of American history has been fought is once again amidst the mess.  In October 2012, a Republican Congressman said, “You can make a monkey ride a bicycle in that length of time-the longest war in history”. When America invaded Afghanistan as a response to 9/11 attacks, Tehrik-I-Taliban had stated that the Americans might had watches but they had time and so they were not in hurry. With the passage of time, it proved right as after decades, it is considered as seemingly endless war. History of American Diplomacy articulates that a war may be started with certain things on mind, as a purpose of what one is doing, but in the end, one finds fighting entirely different things that had never thought of before.

There is no denying fact that war delocalizes you away from all the considerate ends and objectives. Though a bilateral agreement was signed between the US and Taliban representatives on February 29, 2020 yet the formal initiation of Afghan Peace Process between the Kabul Government and Taliban took place on September 12, 2020. It was considered to be a breakthrough in the reconciliation process. The fact cannot be ruled out that the execution and implementation of any peace agreement is not an easy task whereas security is only sustainable when it is comprehensive. Afghanistan issue has been and is the core point when it comes to South Asian security.

 Few questions remain to be assessed and re-evaluated while analyzing the future scenario of Afghan Peace Process?

• In the face of any failure, how the USA is going to shift its standpoint? 
• What type and direction of Afghan society will be formed or emerge out of the peace deal?
• Will the liberties, especially the citizenship rights and freedom be safeguarded or lost (Particularly a point of concern for those Afghans who were born and grown up in Post 9/11 era and who have not seen Taliban’s rule)?
• Are there any chances which may compel Washington to divert its withdrawal strategy?

Imran Khan’s clear stance at the present critical time of history is an eye-opener for the world powers to realize that the world is of bilateralism. Pakistan is a responsible country of International community and so is the USA. However, it is not 1945 that you may create the enemy and push the world into Hot or Cold War. International security and politics is a complicated process, where the states have to safeguard their own interests, regional interests and more broadly the big powers’ interests as well. But at the same time, it is not obligatory for any country to compromise its national interests so as to attain the national interests of others.

The role of both Pakistan and US has been pertinent in order to achieve the strategic objectives in this region. Pakistan is a unique country that has operationally, technically and practically defeated the terrorism and its narrative. The best relations can be between two equals. No state should be subservient to the other state in a relationship, to follow the instructions of others, in order to achieve their objectives or be used to achieve their objectives. The strategic interest on both sides may need to be respected. The ground realities must be understood as Pakistan has been a pertinent actor in facilitating the negotiations between Taliban and the US government that testifies that Pakistan is an equal partner. The cooperation is not one-sided picture; it has to be bilateral by all means. The notion of “Me” and the “other country” is not applicable though. 

The future of Afghanistan in the offing of peace process reminds the very fact that the protracted and violent conflict zones lead to hostile environment, even after it is resolved. The conflicts otherwise have undying or slowly dying energy and at times, they can re-emerge out of the ashes of the same conflict or its resolution. The future of Afghanistan is at crossroads today. Afghan peace process and withdrawal of foreign troops is undoubtedly interconnected with the reconciliation process between Afghan factions. The recent development on the part of USA shows that it has lost its interest in the reconciliation efforts; however it is indispensable not only for the regional but global peace as well. Since any option of Washington’s U-Turn is not foreseeable except that a war breaks out on a large level/or any international terrorist group may emerge which becomes a danger for regional stability including Pakistan. If left in mess, the future scenario could be; blood bath/ civil war, new power blocs, sectarian / ethnic conflicts, new wave of terrorism, regional security imbalance and refugees influx.

On the optimistic front, it may be anticipated that the peaceful peace agreement between Afghan Government and Taliban may be concluded and the situation turns out to be favorable. However it will not be devoid of challenges. The next 5 years will be challenging, in the presence of short and long-term trials such as impact of COVID-19, unemployment among youth, economic crisis, terrorism, internal strife, rampant corruption and Ethnic hatred

 In the worst scenario, if the Superpower leaves everything in mess, then the regional powers may come on the front because the neighbors are to stay here forever. Afghans need to be ensured that only the mutual harmony can enable Afghanistan to become a bridge between the two continents. Geographically, Afghanistan has the capacity but the ground realities need to be altered. The opportunities are there in the form of energy corridors. This prospect of economic boom can bring a new life to war-torn Afghanistan. It should be learnt that there are no points of “No return” in International Relations. Still it is time to generate spaces of common interests which if not focused, will be dangerous for international security and peace. The lesson learnt in the Post-Cold war is that the engagement is always the best option because it is the only key to success. The Post-Cold war scenario illustrates that the big powers of the world have ensured peace through cooperation. Eventually Russia and the USA had to resolve their issues on the negotiation tables, ranging from arms control to disarmament. As far as post conflict peace is concerned, it does not necessarily mean the end of violence everywhere. It may never get completely eliminated. The peace must be considered as a spectrum ranging from insecure to secure. Fundamentally, Pakistan will always be a partner in terms of building sustainable peace with its neighbors- as a partner of socio-economic developing and tackling the cross-border problems of environment, climate change and health. The great powers should also focus on the economic development for the welfare of their people in order to have a lasting impact on their domestic vote bank. Although there is no single theory applicable to peace-building process yet peace is possible nonetheless the approaches could be divergent. The world powers need to make efforts for peace-building rather than peace-making. Since the states learn the scope for controlling peace, the politico-economic and social resources are possibly the desirable substitutes to intimidating means of peace-building.