Aleppo Under Siege – Anti-Government Forces Advance

A coalition of Syrian government opposition groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched a lightning offensive attack against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on 27 November 2024. These forces have captured most of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, and are rapidly advancing southward to Hama Governorate as government forces retreat from the area. This represents the greatest advancement by anti-government forces since the civil war began in 2011.

Since 2016, President Bashar al-Assad has held power in Aleppo, Syria’s economic center. At that time, Assad regained control of the city’s eastern area from rebels, aided by Iran-backed troops and Russian airstrikes. The current battle for Aleppo, codenamed ‘Operation Deterrence of Aggression,’ involves multiple groups, with HTS taking the lead. HTS, a religious group originally set up in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra (a direct affiliation of Al Qaeda), later unfastened its ties with the group under the leadership of Abu Mohamed al-Jawlani. Despite the circumstances, HTS remains a significant actor in the Syrian conflict.

Meanwhile, the Turkey-backed SNA is playing a leading role in the Aleppo attacks. According to analysts, the longevity of the partnership between HTS and SNA will depend on their differing priorities. The former head of the British Army’s chemical weapons unit, Hamish De Bretton-Gordon, noted that the rebels have taken substantial territory in Aleppo and Idlib province and are advancing southward. Charles Lister, an analyst with the US-based Middle East Institute, highlighted the potential consequences, stating that the fighting “has the potential to be quite consequential and potentially game-changing” if Syrian government forces fail to hold their ground. Observers suggest that Turkey aims to reshape the battlefront map in Syria to exert pressure on the Syrian regime.

According to Aaron Y. Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Since breaking ties with Al Qaeda, HTS’ goals have become more localized, focusing on establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than pursuing a broader caliphate. HTS maintains approximately 30,000 fighters, most based in northwestern Syria. Despite its political focus, Zelin emphasizes that HTS remains committed to jihad, with foreign fighters still among its ranks.

Another significant actor in the Aleppo offensive is the SNA, an umbrella organization for armed faction. Established in 2017, the SNA serves as the military wing of the Turkish-backed interim government in northwest Syria. It has played key roles in Turkey’s military operations, including campaigns against Kurdish forces in 2018 and 2019. However, factions within the SNA have faced criticism for alleged human rights violations, with the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioning two key factions in 2023.

According to Caroline Rose from the Washington-based New Lines Institute, the partnership between HTS and SNA is fragile. Turkey, which intervened late in the conflict, has invested in fostering this partnership to enable the Aleppo offensive. However, divergent priorities could challenge the alliance. While the SNA focuses on combating the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in areas like Tel Rifaat, HTS aims to establish its governance over Aleppo. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan blamed the Syrian government for the crisis, citing unresolved longstanding issues rather than foreign interference.

Several other groups are also involved in the Aleppo offensive, including Ahrar al-Sham, an Islamist coalition formed during the early years of Syria’s civil war and the Nour al-Din Zengi Movement, an Islamist group with close ties to HTS. As the battle unfolds, various regional and global actors, including the U.S., Iran, and Turkey, continue to advance their interests in Syria.