Brinkmanship in the Iran-Israel Crisis: The Edge of War

“When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail” – Abraham Maslow

The Middle East prepares for another repetitive cycle of war after Israel’s Operation Rising Lion. Since June 14th, acting in Israel preemptively attacked Iran. This caused a shift from unilateral strategic targets to a broader assault encompassing civilian infrastructure and lives alike. This comes 61 days after President Trump gave Iran the ultimatum to halt all uranium enrichment processes and come to the negotiating table. However, the operation has effectively derailed any chances of a detente in the region. Tel Aviv’s foreign policy blunders in regards to the region have manifested themselves in the form of a strategic gamble which led to mutual conflict escalation. With a high risk of systemic behavior dragging the United States to provide military cover for Israel coupled with their operational dependency on the US, there exists the danger of the Middle East going through a ‘forever war,’ which would see it pass through multiple stages until major powers involve themselves in a bid to compete and rollback each other’s influence from the region; the Thucydides trap. The US attacking three of Iran’s nuclear set up sites has exacerbated escalation risks and cemented a security dilemma in the region.

Taking a structural lens to understand the regional situation, Israel and Iran have been locked in a tussle for regional hegemony. The Israeli thirst for absolute security, on the rationale that Iranian superiority is an unacceptable risk to their existence, forces them into a preventive war stance by conducting attacks on Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, and assassination attacks on Iranian leadership. This causes a reciprocal retaliation by Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in the region against Israel.  Already under a ring of encirclement by the US military bases in the Middle East, along with their support of Israel’s strategic goals in the region, Iran would naturally pursue building up their arms and retaliatory capability to safeguard their survival and national interests. A cycle that would repeat itself until one state eventually decides to act offensively to eliminate the threat, sparking a war.  The recent events, especially the US attacks have potentially set up Iran to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Brigadier General Alireza Tansgiri of the Iranian navy also announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed down. This will give the conflict a major economical paradigm as well, interrupting a trade of approximately twenty million barrels of crude oil per day. Such rapid decisions are making headway towards a spillover effect in the region.

The root cause of such domineering by Israel can be attributed to the enabling behaviour and support by the US. Much of America’s iron-clad support for Israel (most evident in the Gaza genocide) can be attributed to its status as a declining superpower. Turning this not only into contention between Israel and the Middle East, but also the ideologies of global order and the revisionist powers of the East seeking a multipolar world order. The Middle East has been a battleground of the new cold war between the East and the West, with the Russian, Turkish, and Iranian axis arming their proxies to fight against American backed rebels in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The Chinese and Iran 25 years cooperation accord, an integral part of the ambitious Belt Road Initiative (BRI), proves the fact that energy, mineral, and fuel resources prevalent in spades within the Middle East act as a medium between rivaling ideologies. Under the Waltzian understanding of International Relations, a hegemon may be forced to intervene in a region in order to preserve its status. The neologisms for justifying US aid to Israel in this crisis are already being forced upon the American public, done through various mainstream media outlets such as CNN and Fox News. Post 9/11 rhetoric is reviving itself and the threat perceptions are making Iran out to be another holder of ‘weapons of mass destruction.’ The parallels between the Invasion of Iraq and today are being projected without restraint. Solely because it was on Israeli urging that the invasion was carried out despite Arab warnings that Saddam Hussein acted as a counterbalancing force to Iran’s regime.

While the president Trump’s government struggles with justifying their actions with their manifesto back home, Iran and Israel’s constant retaliatory strikes are leading to a rising death toll. According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, at least 224 people have been killed and 1,481 gravely wounded, while the Israeli government has claimed that two dozen civilians have lost their lives in the following attacks. Both countries are unwilling to relent in the attacks, turning this into a war of attrition with the only goal to exhaust the other’s arsenal before any decisive step can be taken. The Israeli air defense systems (iron dome, david sling) reportedly malfunctioned multiple times, making them unable to intercept Iran’s ballistic missiles and the Fattah hypersonic missile. With Iranian social media handles and national news channels propagating an extended arsenal of drones and missiles ready to be used on Israel, the latter has been baying for US intervention, deeming it important if it is to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, especially at Fardow. And the result was achieved, further forcing Iran to reciprocate.

A prevalent cause of unrestricted escalation is the lack of a diplomatic engagement framework focusing on mitigating any tensions. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) 2015, was one such example where Iran made a deal to keep their nuclear program strictly peaceful in return for sanctions relief. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) later verified that Iran had implemented the key aspects of the program, however the US unilateral decision to pull out of the deal in 2018 bore no fruit for the region and rolled the conditions back to the realist confrontation norms. On 21st June, Israel and America’s coordinated strikes in Iran have pushed the nuclear redlines to the limits. Giving Iran the justification to have a nuclear deterrent in order to prevent such blatant disregards for its sovereignty. However, the responsibility relies on the major powers, especially those having nuclear capability, to advocate for a complete halt in attacks from both sides and mediate a solution between Iran and Israel, before the entire region is dragged into the trap of war through the pressure of systemic forces or further strategic miscalculation.