Civil Nuclear Energy and the Architecture of Sustainable Growth in Pakistan

The economic trajectory of Pakistan is long calculated with erratic growth patterns such as periodic balance of payment crises, dependence on imports of energy, institutional erosion, and a weak rule-of -law environment that strictly restricts long-term investments. In this regard, approaches to nuclear energy are confined to megawatts, or geopolitical affairs are confined to megawatts, which is not a wise approach. Pakistan’s peaceful nuclear program is not merely a source of energy generation but is one of the most strategic tools of the country for macroeconomic stability and regulatory disciplines, which are the two major prerequisites in achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) that call for sustained economic growth and a long-run productive potential.

The economic growth model of Pakistan is exposed to fuel price shocks systematically because of the strain in foreign exchange reserves, widened fiscal deficits, and intensified inflationary pressures due to Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported fuel particularly oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). According to the estimation of various reports (such as World Meter, International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC)), Pakistan’s oil consumption is showing an upward  trend since 2001, a rise of approximately 365 thousand barrels/day (kbd) to roughly 470 – 500 kbd by 2024. In contrast, production shows moderate growth, increasing approximately 93 kbd in 2007, 98 kbd in 2014, and 107 kbd in 2018 from 63 kbd in 2001. The gap between the production growth and consumption growth is huge and is widening consistently over time, which points to the state’s reliance on external sources.

Pakistan is one of the biggest importer of the LNG, crude oil (main raw material refined into petrol (MOGAS), diesel (HSD), jet fuel (JP-1), etc.), and refined product imports (High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (LSFO), Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), MOGAS (petrol, including 92 RON and 95 RON), High-Speed Diesel (HSD), Jet fuel (JP-1) etc.), for its energy needs. In 2024, the production was estimated at around 81,426 b/d, placing the country 51st in world ranking, while consumption was estimated at around 479,218 b/d, bringing the state to 34^th position in the world. The daily deficit was counted around -397,792 b/d. Furthermore, the country has proven oil reserves of approximately 243,000,000 barrels, ranking 52nd globally and accounting for 0.014% of the world’s total reserves. At 2024 consumption levels, these reserves are projected to last for approximately one year.

A heavy reliance on energy imports has major structural implications for the macroeconomics of the state. It pressurizes the energy trade deficit, demands volatility and supply rigidity. It poses peak-and-adjustment patterns. Depreciation of Pakistani currency is inversely proportional to the increased import bills. Since fuel prices affect transportation and electricity generation, higher imports combined with high global prices contribute to inflation. Therefore, the economy of the state is exposed to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions due to its overreliance on imported oil and its refineries (such as crude oil and diesel etc.).

Expanding on this point, it is crucial to understand that if the primary energy inputs are volatile and externally vulnerable, economic growth cannot be sustained. The state needs to move towards more reliable sources of energy, such as renewables and nuclear power.  Nuclear energy is the most reliable option to reduce such vulnerabilities for a developing country. It is a reliable, good alternative to fossil fuel in power generation. As a strategic component in the sustainable growth architecture of Pakistan, it contributes significantly to energy security, import substitution, carbon reduction, industrial upgradation, and macroeconomic stability. Additionally, it is less volatile, reliable, and environmentally friendly. Keeping the safeguard measures for the operation of nuclear infrastructure in view, Pakistan has consistent, reliable, and tightly structured governance frameworks under the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).

Currently, Pakistan is facing a strategic choice in its energy and economic planning. It can maintain the status quo of reactive policymaking, that is, import-driven energy fixes, short-term loans, emergency fiscal adjustments, and short-term stabilization under external pressure. Or it can take a consistent long-term modernization approach, and incorporate civil nuclear energy technology, which demonstrates that nuclear energy is not merely a technical infrastructure initiative, but a macroeconomic and institutional fortification tool. Non-violent applications of nuclear power will be able to minimize the vulnerability of the state to the unstable market of fuels in the world and strengthen the control over the regulatory discipline and the ability to plan long-term, provided they are under the control of the transparent rules. These attributes cannot be done without to attain Sustainable Development Goal 8 which will require sustainable and productive growth as opposed to cyclical recovery.

The actual question, however, is not whether Pakistan can afford to invest in nuclear energy, but whether it can afford to remain economically vulnerable without such investments. The state needs to move the debates beyond kilowatts and political symbolism. Currently, a more fundamental factor of the state is at stake, whether the nation can develop the macroeconomic stability and institutional credibility, which are the preconditions of a high-quality sustained growth. If SDG-8 is to be more than rhetorical alignment, nuclear energy must be treated not as a peripheral energy option, but as a structural pillar of economic strategy.