Evolving Dynamics of Pakistan’s Sea-based Deterrence: Impact on Strategic Stability of the Region

In International Security, a nation’s strategic considerations evolve in response to changing geopolitical dynamics and technological advancements. Among many important elements of global security framework, the concept of sea-based deterrence is pivotal.  According to John F. Kennedy, “Control of the seas means security, control of the seas means peace, and control of the seas can mean victory.”

Sea-based deterrence is essential to maritime nations’ defense strategies. With its unique geostrategic position and associated security challenges, Pakistan is progressively developing its sea-based deterrence capabilities to strengthen its national defense posture.

The evolution of Pakistan’s sea-based deterrence is essential for establishing a credible second-strike capability in response to India’s expanding maritime capabilities. While the development of Pakistan’s sea-based deterrence strengthens its national security and enhances regional strategic stability through deterrence stability, it also risks contributing to an arms race and escalating crisis if not carefully managed within South Asia’s security framework.

Sea-based deterrence involves deploying nuclear weapons on submarines to enhance a nation’s nuclear arsenal’s survivability and credibility. The main goal is to uphold a believable threat of retaliation, even after an initial attack.

1. Evolving Dynamics of Pakistan’s Sea-based Deterrence

Pakistan’s sea-based deterrence is continuously evolving, realizing the importance of strategies shift and technological advancement, Pakistan’s navy is progressively expanding its ability to meet its mission, “Protect Maritime Interests of Pakistan, deter aggression at and from sea, provide disaster relief, participate in development of coastal communities and contribute to international efforts in maintaining good order at sea”

1.1 Strategies for Modernization

Advancement in maritime technology is crucial for addressing security dynamics and enhancing sea-based deterrence, and Pakistan is focusing on modernization strategies. The country is acquiring new Hangor-class submarines with advanced weapons and sensors. All the while upgrading existing Agosta-90B submarines with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, enhanced combat capabilities. Pakistan is also developing the Harbah missile, a medium-range, subsonic cruise missile system which has capability of targeting sea as well as land target. It possesses the quality of “all weather operation”.

To improve its operational effectiveness, the Pakistan Navy is also upgrading its naval aviation by incorporating maritime patrol aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for enhanced surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting.

1.2 Strategic Alliances

Pakistan relies on strategic alliances to strengthen its sea-based deterrence strategy. China’s significant role in Pakistan’s sea-based deterrence includes technology transfer, military cooperation, and defense collaboration, particularly in submarine development and provision. Hangor-class submarines, which are being procured from China, are advanced diesel-electric vessels equipped with AIP systems. China’s assistance in upgrading surface fleet modernization, such as type 054A/P frigates, has been crucial for Pakistan. Turkiye’s support, including the provision of MILGEM-class corvettes has further enhanced Pakistan’s naval capabilities.

Joint ventures and international cooperation such as the AMAN series of multinational naval exercises have bolstered Pakistan’s naval strength, enabling it to maintain credible sea-based deterrence in the Indian Ocean.

1.3 Conventional Build-up

Pakistan Navy has been gradually adding conventional weapons to its sea-based deterrence strategy, with a main focus on upgrading warships. The Navy is enhancing its electronic warfare capabilities to protect its assets and disrupt adversary operations in the maritime domain. The induction of PNS Hunain, a multi-role, ultrafast warship with advanced defense systems, will strengthen regional maritime security patrols in the Indian Ocean. According to ISPR, this addition will enhance Pakistan’s ability to disrupt adversarial operations. Additionally, the PNS Yarmook, equipped with modern helicopters, has been deployed on regional patrols to ensure the safety of commercial vessels and address multifaceted maritime threats.

2. Impact on Strategic Stability of the Region

The evolving dynamics of sea-based deterrence in Pakistan significantly impact the strategic stability of the region. Strategic stability is defined as states deterred from initiating conflict or escalating crises due to the clear and predictable consequences of such actions. This concept is centered on two key components: deterrence stability and arms race stability, both of which are essential for ensuring strategic stability in nuclear deterrence and military power dynamics.

2.1 Deterrence Stability

Deterrence stability refers to a strategic balance between rival powers that reduces the likelihood of conflict or war, both of which possess sufficient retaliatory capabilities to deter each other from initiating an attack.

Babur-III provides Pakistan with a credible second-strike capability, ensuring a devastating response to any nuclear attack. The mobility and stealth of submarines deter India from considering preemptive strikes on Pakistan’s nuclear forces.

India’s sea-based deterrent capabilities, including nuclear submarines, could create regional instability, if not addressed. Pakistan’s development counterbalances this, preventing India from gaining dominance and strategic advantage, which could encourage risk-taking or aggressive actions.

However, Pakistan’s strategies may not provide a long-term solution because of the technological disparities with India. India’s advanced sea-based deterrence, particularly its SSBN fleet, gives it a strategic advantage over Pakistan’s reliance on diesel-electric submarines, which are more vulnerable in critical missions, especially in a high-stakes environment like the Indian Ocean.

As a developing nation, Pakistan is facing economic issues, which is one of the reasons for its limited sea-based deterrence. Thus, Pakistan needs to create a path through maritime trade with the world, especially India. This will boost its economy as well as its sea-based deterrence.

2.2 Arms Race Stability 

Arms race stability is essential for minimizing the competitive build-up of military capabilities among rival nations, thereby achieving strategic stability in the region. India and Pakistan are engaged in a naval arms race, continuously enhancing their military strength in response to each other, which escalates the risk of conflict.

The strategic stability of South Asia is further jeopardized by other nuclear powers and U.S.- India agreement, and Pakistan’s relationship with China. To mitigate risks, both countries must engage in effective dialogue to establish communicative channels and confidence-building measures as well as explore arms control initiatives addressing sea-based nuclear weapons.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Pakistan’s evolving sea-based deterrence system marks a pivotal development in South Asia’s strategic landscape, enhancing its security and contributing to regional deterrence stability. Pakistan has made strides to create a credible sea-based deterrent by countering India’s regional superiority. However, certain risks and challenges associated with this development must be addressed in order to ensure long-term strategic stability. While, nuclear deterrence remains central to strategic stability, the changing geopolitical landscape and emerging threats require adapting deterrence concepts the 21st century.

To achieve this, Pakistan must take key actions. First, the development of a robust sea-based deterrence strategy, including operationally ready SSBNs and a Continuous at Sea Deterrence (CASD) strategy, will be crucial for ensuring survivability and strategic flexibility. Second, effective communication and confidence-building measures with India are necessary to avoid escalation or miscalculations at sea. Third, Pakistan must leverage maritime trade to address economic constraints while fostering better regional relations. Additionally, both nations should explore bilateral arms control initiatives tailored to the unique challenges of sea-based nuclear weapons. Finally, Pakistan must shift its academic and strategic focus from a land-centric to maritime-centric approach, acknowledging the importance of maritime deterrence in its national security calculus.

As Pakistan strengthens its sea-based deterrence, a holistic approach that integrates economic development, regional diplomacy, and academic engagement is essential for securing long-term stability and preventing conflict in the region. It is a call to both Pakistan and India to prioritize dialogue, transparency, and cooperation in the maritime domain, ensuring safer and more stable South Asia.