Implications of India’s Hypersonic Missile Test for Strategic Stability in South Asia and Beyond

India with its maiden test of a “Long-range Hypersonic Missile” has introduced a technology in the region that will have serious implications for the strategic stability in South Asia and beyond.   The test was conducted from the test site off the coast of Odisha, on 16th November 2024. The missile, capable of carrying a variety of warheads, is reported to have a range greater than 1500 km, which actually places it in the Intermediate-range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) category. This test was conducted on the heels of India’s maiden test of Long-Range Land-Attack Cruise Missile (LRLACM) on 12th November 2024.

The statement released by the Indian Ministry of Defence claims that the missile conducted successful terminal maneuvers and exhibited high degree of accuracy. The reported terminal maneuvering of the hypersonic missile before impacting the target is an indication that the missile carried an inflight maneuverable Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) as its standard payload. Reportedly the missile is primarily designed to be used as an anti-ship missile like the Brahmos Supersonic Anti-ship Cruise Missile. However, its use in land-attack mode cannot be ruled out.

The hypersonic missile test received extensive coverage in international media and Social Media platforms. However, no major power including the US, Russia and China made any official comment on this missile test. If this test was indeed successful as claimed, it puts India in league with Russia and China, the only other countries with demonstrated capability to successfully develop HGVs. The US and other western powers are still struggling to field a hypersonic missile, let alone an HGV.

Beyond its performance parameters and announced technical details, this delivery system, if further developed to the point of achieving operational capability in due course of time, carries serious implications for the regional security and the strategic stability. It will compel countries in the region and beyond to reassess their threat perception and take appropriate measures.

Hypersonic missiles pose challenges of detection and interception for other countries. These missiles travel at five times the speed of sound or more (Mach 5 or higher), that is 6000 kmph or more. Such high speeds make detection and interception nearly impossible through the use of existing detection technologies and anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems. Even if detected and tracked, the complexity posed by the maneuverability of HGV makes it nearly impossible for it to be intercepted.

Russian strike on a military target in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on 21st November 2024, using Oreshnik hypersonic missile, was the first-ever confirmed use of a hypersonic missile in combat. According to Reuters, Moscow gave an advance warning of thirty minutes to the US before firing the missile. Yet the latest air defence systems supplied to Ukraine by the west were unable to intercept the six Oreshnik missiles that struck their target at the speed of Mach 11.

The test has strategic implications, as a hypersonic missile can also carry a nuclear warhead.  This capability can potentially affect conceptual, operational and technical parameters of regional security environment as it would create vulnerabilities, fuel crisis instability and adversely affect the strategic stability in South Asia and beyond. Countries falling within the range of this missile, especially Pakistan and China, are likely to respond to this new dimension of threat to their national security.

China, with proven hypersonic technology is relatively secure, as it can respond in kind to any Indian misadventure. However, in case of Pakistan, a hypersonic missile fired from 300 km deep inside Indian territory, will take a maximum of three minutes to breach Pakistan’s airspace, giving minimal response time to decision makers. It will therefore be imperative for Pakistan to consider taking counter measures on priority to mitigate the security threat posed by India’s hypersonic missiles.

India’s advancement and investment in offensive weapon systems, in particular, the development of Agni-V Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of over 5000 km and its Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) variant, tested on 11th March 2024, should be a cause of serious concern to regional countries, as well as India’s western allies, given the great power ambitions that the state harbours. The range of the ICBMs can be extended by India to target any country in the world.

India is also working to rapidly increase its nuclear arsenal. According to SIPRI year book 2020, India was in possession of 150 nuclear warheads.  Three years later, by the end of 2023, India’s inventory increased to 164 and jumped to 172 warheads in 2024. India has the fastest growing nuclear program in South Asia.

India demonstrated ASAT missile capability in 2019. It is co-producing Brahmos supersonic Anti-ship Cruise Missile with Russia, with a hypersonic version in the pipeline. India is now delivering these missiles to some ASEAN countries. Thus, engaging in proliferation of sensitive missile technology.

The sudden and ominous increase in India’s strategic capability, coupled with its increasingly tangent stance to the US policy in Asia-Pacific region, which has run into roadblocks owing to India’s insistence on maintaining strategic autonomy, should be the primary focus and cause of concern for policy makers in Washington DC, who have ironically assigned India with the the role of ‘Net Security Provider’ in the region, which is actually a net security spoiler. They are apparently blinded by the desire to contain China at any cost and obsessed with Pakistan’s modest missile development program, which is designed to defend the country against the existential threat posed by its neighbour.

Pakistan has always strived for peace by restoring strategic stability in the region through its nuclear doctrine based on Full Spectrum Deterrence as part of Credible Minimum Deterrence and Quid-Pro-Quo Plus response policy. Time and again, Pakistan has successfully restored the strategic balance disturbed by India’s aggressive posture and introduction of offensive weapons. Be it the 1974 and 1998 nuclear tests carried out by India to which Pakistan responded with its own nuclear tests in May 1998, or India’s Cold Start Doctrine which Pakistan countered through the development of Tactical Nuclear Weapon, the short-range missile, Nasr. In the wake of recent Indian hypersonic missile test, it is time for Pakistan to do what it does best – restore deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia once again.

As India is a nuclear-weapon state, it is logical for Pakistan to take appropriate counter measures to mitigate the threat posed by any new technology introduced by India in the region. Just as Pakistan declared its nuclear capability in response to Indian nuclear tests, it is the right time for Pakistan to respond to Indian hypersonic missile test by declaring its own hypersonic missile and HGV programme. Simultaneously, Pakistan must invest in microwave and laser based Directed Energy Weapon technologies that carry the promise of interdicting Hypersonic missiles and HGVs along with an AI integrated satellite surveillance system to increase advance warning time.