Implications of US space weaponization on China

Space is becoming a vital part of modern warfare, posing new challenges and opportunities for the defense and intelligence communities as a result of its growing significance in the modern warfighting arena and security operations, with major space-faring countries like China, Russia, and the United States poised to develop advanced defense space assets and capabilities for dynamic space operations like on-orbit servicing, space mobility, and logistics to outmaneuver and deter other countries

With the creation of the U.S. Space force. The United States Department of Defense, recognized space as a new operational domain, acknowledging the critical role that space-based assets play in national security. The development and testing of anti-satellite capabilities by major nations represents a shift in space’s strategic landscape. It reflects the significance of space in national security and the changing character of military force in the twenty-first century. Recognizing this transformation, the department highlighted the need to adjust its policies, doctrine, and capabilities to secure US space interests while also deterring and, if deterrence fails, defeating aggression against our allies and partners. The formation and evolution of the United States Space Force, as well as other recent reforms, are crucial to the United States’ space leadership.

The onset of the space race is indicated by the US’s move toward space weaponization. Some major breakthroughs are seen as a first step toward space weaponization, such as the 2001 space commission’s proposal that the US government investigate capabilities for deploying weapons in space to protect US interests. Furthermore, the United States has been able to enhance missile defenses, especially space-based systems, as part of its plan since it withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.

The United States’ intention to strengthen its space-based defense capabilities is demonstrated by the launch of the Ground-Based Midcourse Missile Defense system and the Pentagon’s projects, which include the creation of improved target monitoring satellites and space-based kinetic energy interceptor’s. Initiatives such as the Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) satellite, which was initially designed to collect ballistic missile data.The United States’ intention to strengthen its space-based defense capabilities is demonstrated by the launch of the Ground-Based Midcourse Missile Defense system and the Pentagon’s projects, which include the creation of improved target monitoring satellites and space-based kinetic energy interceptors. Projects like the Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) satellite, which was designed primarily to gather data on ballistic missiles has raised concerns about possible militarization. Major Powers have expressed fear that the NFIRE’s interceptors may target satellites. Additionally, the United States has plans to build a complete missile defense system that could engage interceptors and defenses that are intended to be deployed in space in addition to ballistic missiles at various stages of war. The United States’ interest in space-based offensive capabilities is further demonstrated by research on Space-Based Lasers (SBL) and other directed-energy projects.

Chinese leaders, meanwhile, are becoming increasingly concerned that American plans for missile and space defense could incite an expensive and dangerous arms race. Specifically, the general consensus in Beijing is that the US wants to eliminate China’s strategic nuclear deterrent so it can interfere in China’s internal affairs and undermine Beijing’s efforts to encourage Taiwan’s reunification. Therefore, Beijing might feel forced to react by introducing its own space weapons if U.S. intentions are not halted.

Beijing, though, would like not see this come to pass. Chinese officials contend that while continuing space exploration for peaceful purposes benefits all states, weaponizing space is not in the interests of any state. China wants nations to create an international ban on space weaponization rather than engage in space wars.

When it comes to space exploration, the US and China are beyond any doubt two of the world’s leading powers. Even though the current events are commonly referred to as a “space race,” a closer look indicates that China is much behind the United States in this regard. The United States budgeted an astounding $73.2 billion for space exploration in 2023. China, in sharp contrast, spent $14 billion in total that year on both military and civilian space endeavors. This enormous difference in funding commitment highlights the fact that space exploration is currently being led unquestionably by the United States.by 2022 With 3,433 operational satellites in orbit; the United States leads the world, followed by China with only 535 active satellites.

It’s crucial to realize that although the US has a dominant position in space, the majority of its satellites, whether they are in orbit or are scheduled for launch, are for civilian use. These technologies are frequently created by civilian, for-profit companies. In China, on the other hand, it is more difficult to distinguish between military and civilian space exploration. This differentiation is in line with China’s strategy, which more effectively integrates military and civilian space endeavors. China may be able to gain an advantage in some areas of space competition by using this strategy to boost its civil space programs and utilize its military capabilities in return.

However, one should keep in mind that this is a dynamic race even though the United States and China may currently be leading the space race. China poses serious challenges to US dominance in space with its expanding global partner network and more cohesive strategy to merging civilian and military space operations. The fate of this race is still unknown as the world watches it play out, and there is still much competition in space exploration.

One cannot emphasize the strategic importance of space in modern warfare. As the competition evolves, assessing the implications of China and the US’s space race on international security and stability becomes crucial. The potential disruption of strategic balance and stability, which poses threats to both national and international security and undermines current arms control agreements, particularly those pertaining to nuclear weapons and missiles, is one of China’s main concerns regarding U.S. plans for space weaponization, and is often expressed at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD). This could lead to new arms races. Furthermore, the United States’ deployment of space-based missile defenses may force Russia and the United States to make slight reductions  in their nuclear arsenals, and China may be forced to increase the number of nuclear weapons in order to maintain its nuclear deterrent, which may lead to similar actions by Pakistan and India. Russia has also threatened to retaliate against any nation that deploys space weaponry. Neglecting to advance nuclear disarmament could exacerbate the already precarious nuclear nonproliferation regime, endangering the core interests of every country.