Interplay of Afghan Taliban and TTP: Challenges for Pakistan

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has long been marked by complexity and tension, rooted in historical disputes and geopolitical dynamics. Despite shared cultural and historical ties, Afghanistan was the first country not to recognize Pakistan and oppose its admittance into the United Nations. Additionally, ongoing disagreements over the disputed Durand Line, drawn by British colonial powers and sanctuaries of TTP in Afghanistan, have further fueled bilateral tensions and pose serious security concerns for Pakistan, respectively.

The emergence of the Taliban in the 1990s, following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, added a new dimension to the Afghan-Pakistan dynamic. According to ex-President, Pervez Musharaf, in his book, “In the Line of Fire: A Memoir,” he wrote: “It is true that we had assisted in the rise of the Taliban after the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, which was then callously abandoned by the United States. For a while, at the embryonic stage, even the United States had approved of the Taliban. We had hoped that the Taliban, driven by religious zeal based on the true principles of Islam, would bring unity and peace to a devastated country.” On the contrary, the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, has shown its close ties with terrorist outfits such as Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a staunch enemy of Pakistan, and provides it with a safe haven. Last year in November, the caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan, Anwar ul-Haq Kakar, stressed and criticized the Afghan Taliban government and its leadership for supporting the TTP’s insurgency against Pakistan. Consequently, this has led to an increase in violence and fatalities of 2,867 since the Taliban takeover. However, this menace of TTP needs a deep understanding, which is posing threats to Pakistan’s security and challenging its stability.

Central to Pakistan’s security concerns is the presence of TTP in Afghanistan. TTP originated in 2007 with an alliance of militant networks to unify against Pakistan’s military. Their many objectives are to overthrow the influence of Islamabad in former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and to implement strict Sharia law in Pakistan. On top of that, they seek to establish an Islamic Caliphate in Pakistan and overthrow the existing form of government. To achieve such goals, they turn to violence and kill thousands of innocent people. Moreover, Pakistan has seen a surge in such deadly attacks since 2022, when the TTP walked out of the ceasefire with the government. 93% of attacks were seen in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with KP being the worst affected province. Such events highly impact the security landscape of Pakistan, and most counterterrorism analysts believe that this security dilemma is mainly due to the incoherent policy of Pakistan’s government toward Afghanistan.

Afghan Taliban, on the other hand, are consistently downplaying this issue of TTP despite its footprints in Afghanistan. Taliban dismiss this as an internal issue of Pakistan, whereas it is speculated that the Afghan Taliban are protecting and sheltering TTP. Consequently, it fuels concern for the commitment of the Afghan Taliban against terrorism and their sincerity towards Pakistan. In this stance, Pakistan has few options to navigate its path to peace.

Pakistan can opt to put economic and trade pressure on the Taliban as Pakistan is the hub of almost 50% of exports, and the border crossing with Pakistan contributes to 40% of the customs revenues, which makes a total of 60% of the Taliban’s total revenues. Another option for Pakistan can be to cross-border military action striking TTP in Afghanistan. This may incur more increased support for TTP by the already deeply angered Afghan people. Therefore, Pakistan needs to have a more balanced approach toward Afghanistan and engage the Taliban more diplomatically so that the common masses of both countries are less affected and Pakistan gains its security and diplomatic goals. These can be achieved by Strengthening border security by monitoring every individual’s entry, fencing the border all over, and installing the latest equipment technology has to offer to curb TTP infiltration. Furthermore, enhancing counter-terrorism measures and intelligence-sharing with the Afghan Taliban. This could involve intelligence-sharing mechanisms and joint counterterrorism operations to target TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Moreover, addressing the root causes of extremism through socio-economic development and education must be a top priority. Afghan nationals’ admission quota to educational institutes in Pakistan should be exceeded, and more trade and business opportunities should be explored.

Relations with the Taliban and Afghan Government have been strained from a very long time and have grown more complex with the TTP’s existence in Afghanistan. This calls for a more multifaceted approach from both sides, especially from Pakistan. Pakistan needs to have strategic foresight and collaborate with the Afghan Taliban to address the challenges posed by extremist and militant groups. This scenario will likely be a win-win situation for both neighboring countries. Pakistan can work toward securing its interests while contributing to peace and stability in the region.