Iran – Israel Conflict: Weighing a painful response

During the Israeli war cabinet meeting, Benny Gantz reiterated that “We will build a regional coalition and collect the price from Iran, in the way and at the time that suits us.”

This sparks speculations that Israel will indeed respond to the unprecedented Iranian drone and missile attacks. If that happens to be the case, it will not affect the security of the region but will endanger global security as a whole.

Iran’s missile strikes indicated three elements. First, it showed Iranian resolve to defend their territory against aggression of all sorts. Second, it showed an existing commitment to controlled escalation. Three, it highlighted Iran’s long-range capabilities whereby it can strike targets with precision at the time and placing of its choosing. All these three elements put together compose Iran’s missile deterrent capability, and with a rich pool of targets within the range of its diverse set of missiles, it is not difficult to deduce that a massive barrage of ballistics, unlike the attacks last weekend, would certainly obliterate a majority portion of the US, Israeli, and the Western assets in the region.

On the other hand, Israel seems to be further bolstered by repeated verbal support by its main ally, the United States. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken pledged continued support to Israel’s defense especially if attacked by Tehran. In addition to this, some Western countries have protested diplomatically against Iran for its recent attacks. The US and its allies, nonetheless, helped Israel intercept a large number of missiles launched from Iranian territory, Lebanon, and Yemen. The military and diplomatic support received by Israel will not help de-escalate the situation, rather grant Israel a false invincibility aura whereby it might be forced to assess the situation to its advantage, even though it might not be at all.

In order to assess the Iranian response to an Israeli counter retaliation, one must know the political dynamics within Iran, especially in context with Israel. The current theocratic set up in Iran, to be taken in congruence with Iran’s establishment or its deep state, hinges on the singular premise that the US and Israel are the enemies of the Iranian people and the Muslim world in general. Most of Iran’s foreign military interventions, through its proxies, are justified as axes of resistance against the aforementioned. Iran’s Quds force is named after the holy sites in Jarusalem indicating an implicit desire to liberate those lands from Israeli occupation. Iran’s 40 years long streak of being under sanctions is entirely attributed to the US and Israeli enmity of the Iranian nation. Thus, another direct Israeli attack on Iran may be met with an even swifter and more severe response that has the probability of melting the entire escalation ladder itself.

To grasp the gravity, one must recall a war game conducted by Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, where Iran-Israel conventional conflict quickly turned nuclear with both Israel and Iran launching nuclear weapons on each other. What is meant here is that neither the Israelis, nor the Iranians will back down in face of further attacks. Both consider each to be an existential threat for one another. This is especially true for Iran, whose post revolution policies have entirely been centered around isolating and surrounding Israel, and undermining American influence in the region.

However, General David Petraeus, a former US Army General and CIA Chief, believes otherwise. Stating that Israel would formulate a response showcasing its deterrent capabilities while also avoiding “ratcheting up the escalation any further”.

Yet the top-level executives both in Iran and Israel can be safely classified as hawkish towards one another. In addition to that, both possess fatalist elements within their governments who have a rather insatiable desire to go to war. With Iran acquiring 85% enrichment in late 2023, it may not be a far-fetched assumption that Iran may have developed nuclear weapons covertly. They also possess the requisite delivery systems i.e. Ballistic and Cruise missiles that can be tipped with nuclear warheads. However, there is no strong evidence to this assumption.

What is left, therefore, is a spark that will set the entire region and possibly the world in flames – not conventional but nuclear. With Iran’s response last weekend, both countries can now claim victory. Iran has done enough to save face whereas Israel can claim  how it intercepted 99% of Iranian air-borne weapons.

It is up to the Israelis now to maintain the fragile peace in the region and decide against any counter retaliation which has the capacity to escalate to a point where the escalation ladder itself might disintegrate in a nuclear inferno.