Iron or Ploughshare: The Choices in Pakistan-Afghan Relations

With the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban came into power—much to the delight of their long-time supporters in Pakistan. As the news spread, the former Pakistani prime minister tweeted, “Afghanistan has broken the shackles of slavery.” This is quite a turnaround from fifty years ago, as Pakistan and Afghanistan had strained relations due to their border issue, the Durand Line, which Afghanistan has rejected since its inception. Even the Taliban, which Pakistan expected would take a soft stance, have dismissed it as “just a line, not a border.”

Fast forward to today, and relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have hit rock bottom. Both sides are engaging in a game of tit-for-tat, with kinetic and non-kinetic moves straight out of a bad action movie. This is the opposite of what Pakistan envisioned when they popped the champagne at the Taliban’s comeback party. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban was driven by the dream of having a friendly neighbor—essentially a strategic safety net in case things went south with India. But that dream has turned into a nightmare, with terrorist attacks in Pakistan spiking by 73% in the first 21 months of the Taliban’s rule.

The real tragedy isn’t just the diplomatic rift—it’s the growing animosity between the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This deep-seated resentment is splashed all over social media, in post-match brawls during cricket tournaments, and even in attacks on Pakistani embassies abroad. Pakistan, once the mediator and self-appointed mentor, is now desperately courting other players, like China, to mend fences with Afghanistan. From BFFs to bitter rivals, where did it all go wrong?

Looking Back to Move Forward

Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan post-Saur Revolution has been a rollercoaster ride of self-interest and short-term gains. Foreign policy has been a hot mess—constantly shifting with the tides of security concerns and personal agendas. After the Saur Revolution, Pakistan cozied up to the Mujahideen to thwart the Russian invasion. Once that chapter closed, Pakistan hitched its wagon to the Taliban, seeing them as potential allies who’d turn a blind eye to the Durand Line and play nice with Pakistani interests. But just five years later, when the War on Terror kicked off, Pakistan flipped the script again.

Suddenly, Pakistan was hosting the Americans and offering up bases to fight against the very Taliban they once supported. Afghanistan often felt like a pawn in Pakistan’s geopolitical chess game—a client state to be managed, not an equal partner. Even as Pakistan backed a U.S.-friendly government, it continued to support groups that aligned with its own interests. This double-dealing didn’t go unnoticed, and the Afghan government started flirting with Pakistan’s arch-nemesis, India, which was busy winning hearts and minds by helping to rebuild Afghanistan. India’s growing influence in Afghanistan wasn’t just a thorn in Pakistan’s side—it was seen as a full-blown strategic encirclement.

During this period, India and Afghanistan became best buds, while Pakistan’s reputation took a nosedive, especially among Afghanistan’s Gen Z and new Taliban 2.0, who hadn’t witnessed Pakistan’s earlier support in back 1980-90s. Instead, they saw Pakistan as the villain, believing its actions had caused Afghanistan’s suffering. Meanwhile, India was the shiny new friend helping to pick up the pieces. This resentment now bubbles over in every skirmish, tweet, and diplomatic spat.

Afghanistan’s Take: It’s complicated

In response to the surge in terrorism in Pakistan post-Taliban takeover, Pakistan has pointed fingers at the Taliban for harboring TTP leaders. The Taliban and TTP go way back—they fought shoulder to shoulder against the U.S.-backed Afghan government. Given this “bromance,” the Taliban isn’t keen on cracking down on the TTP. There’s also a legitimate fear that if they go after the TTP (estimated to be about 6,000-6,500 strong), they might push them into the arms of other militant groups like ISKP, which is already causing headaches in Afghanistan.

ISKP, by the way, is largely made up of former TTP fighters who fled Pakistan during the military’s crackdown in 2014–15. So, there’s a real possibility of them reuniting with their old buddies. Plus, there’s a sneaking suspicion that the Taliban might be using the TTP as a bargaining chip against Pakistan. With bigger fish to fry—like governance, economic woes, and seeking international legitimacy—the Taliban isn’t rushing to bite the hand that fed them.

Pakistan’s Playbook: Tough Love or Tough Luck?

Pakistan’s response to the Taliban’s reluctance has been a mix of tough love and tough luck. Instead of sitting down for a heart-to-heart, both countries are playing the unilateral game. Pakistan started by deporting illegal Afghan immigrants in waves, hoping to get the Taliban’s attention. Spoiler alert: it didn’t work. This move has only further eroded goodwill in Afghanistan and may have weakened Pakistan’s leverage without delivering any results.

When that didn’t pan out, Pakistan upped the ante by hinting at possible airstrikes within Afghanistan, essentially saying, “If you won’t deal with the TTP, we will.” Pakistan has also played the economic card, shutting down borders and halting trade with the Taliban to squeeze them financially. But this has backfired—trade between the two countries has dropped by 15%, with Iran swooping in to become Afghanistan’s top trading partner. Afghanistan, fed up with the border drama, has announced plans to invest $35 million in Iran’s Chabahar port to reduce its reliance on Pakistan.

Pakistan’s mixed bag of unilateral actions hasn’t yielded the desired outcomes. It’s time to rethink the strategy.

Is It Too Late to Tango?

If Pakistan and Afghanistan keep this tit-for-tat strategy going, they may soon find themselves in a no-win situation. Pakistan, with its security challenges and struggling economy, can’t afford another hostile border. Meanwhile, Afghanistan, eager for international recognition, can’t ignore Pakistan—the first country to recognize the Taliban back in 1996 and a key player in building diplomatic bridges.

Pakistan could be a lifeline for Afghanistan, offering economic support and acting as a gateway to the world. A stable Afghanistan is crucial for Pakistan’s long-held dreams of Central Asian connectivity, which could open up new trade and energy avenues. Strong ties between the two nations could also help curb terrorism, bringing much-needed peace to the region.

The Welsh Way: Turning Rivals into Partners

To tackle issues like distrust, resentment, security concerns, and economic woes, Pakistan’s current strategy of going it alone isn’t cutting it. It’s time for a long-term game plan. Pakistan should consider engaging Afghanistan through a bilateral strategic partnership framework—think of it as “APAPPS 2.0.” The Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS) is designed to create a structured approach for addressing security issues and boosting economic cooperation. It’s also a great way to build trust and manage those pesky border disputes, turning a strained relationship into a strategic partnership.

APAPPS includes key commitments: both countries agree to take action against elements posing security threats, deny their territories to anti-state activities, avoid territorial and aerial violations, and stop the public blame game, using APAPPS mechanisms instead.

Improved bilateral relations could pave the way for regional collaboration on projects like TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline), CASA (Central Asia-South Asia Electrical Line), and TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Power Project). These initiatives not only meet Pakistan’s energy needs but also create job opportunities on both sides of the border. For the Taliban, this is a golden chance to bolster political legitimacy, strengthen the economy through transit fees, and create jobs for their people. The Taliban have shown interest in these projects, but a little more commitment wouldn’t hurt.

By fostering economic interdependence and developing a strategic engagement framework, Pakistan can address security concerns, heal old wounds, and rebuild a strong, mutually beneficial relationship with Afghanistan.