Is the Trump–Modi Bromance Over for Good?

Once hailed as a “natural alliance” between two of the world’s largest democracies, the US-India relationship has rapidly turned into an uneasy and uncertain alignment. What took a quarter-century of careful engagement, spanning the terms of over four US presidents and three Indian Prime Ministers since President Clinton’s landmark 2000 visit, was shaken by US President Trump’s trademark brand of economic arm-twisting. Tariffs, reaching as high as 50 per cent, symbolise this undoing. With the Trump–Modi bonhomie fading, both India and Pakistan are drawing very different lessons, ones that could potentially reshape the strategic balance in South Asia.

The fallout stems from three flashpoints: the widening trade imbalance between India and the US, New Delhi’s large-scale import of Russian oil to refine and export, and PM Modi’s refusal to extend the credit of the Indo-Pak latest ceasefire to President Trump. Each element played a role in straining ties, but the confluence of the three together undermined the chemistry between PM Modi and President Trump.

The unravelling of the relationship played out like dominoes, chronologically one after the other. After congratulating PM Modi on his re-election, things turned sour when President Trump started deporting illegal Indian migrants, and PM Modi, despite travelling to the US, failed in securing concessions on tariffs. By April 2025, the US had imposed 27 per cent tariffs on India, later increasing it to a total of 50 per cent.

The security arena did not fare any better. Following the Pahalgam attack, President Trump refrained from condemning Pakistan, much to New Delhi’s dismay. Pakistan-India war, Trump repeatedly crowned himself as the indispensable broker of the ceasefire between the two arch-rivals, which India firmly rebuffed. Not much later, Trump hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the White House, and walked back on his promise to attend the QUAD summit in India. In short, India was sidelined symbolically and substantively.

India has decried the tariff hike as unfortunate, noting that China and Türkiye, both major players in Russian oil imports, were given rates as low as 30 and 15 per cent, respectively.  Analysts quickly concluded that the source of India’s discomfort may have been President Trump’s bruised ego for not being recognised as a global peacemaker.  Constrained by his domestic politics and long-held Indian foreign policy position, PM Modi’s inability to indulge in Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize ambitions has cost India dearly.

Cold strategic logic has overridden personal whims, as some reproachment efforts between the US and India have surfaced. After an uneasy halt, renewed talks for negotiating a trade deal were underway. Even if the trade talks succeed and India forfeits its right to import Russian oil, the bitter aftertaste of this episode will linger.

The incident has burst the bubble of strategic partnership, reducing India to a client state. Traditionally, a non-aligned state, PM Modi has edged towards the US to capitalise on India’s massive population, market, and geopolitical weight in the competition between China and the US. This proved to be an incorrect measurement of national power. India realised it could only assert this kind of autonomy with home-grown technology, a modern economy, and a strong military. Moreover, India’s utility to the US as a counterweight against China is contingent upon its military and economic capacities.

As India adopted a relatively warmer approach to dealing with China (as seen at the recent SCO summit), this suggests India had reconsidered how to move forward. Rather than a barefaced demonstration of alternatives, PM Modi’s travel and optics surrounding it signal a tempered approach, with India looking to reinvent its foreign policy, adopting a position that is more diversified and essentially non-aligned, rather than firmly aiming at a position in Washington.

Pakistan has followed the developments closely and successfully captured the space created by the India-US rift. From a ‘one-stop-shop’ access to strategic mineral reserves to recommending him as the Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Pakistan has played every card perfectly. Moreover, the upsurge in diplomatic prestige resulting from the outcome of the aerial engagement in May has positioned Pakistan well in the good graces of the US Government.

As US-India relations enter damage control and perhaps recovery, Pakistan has clearly established a much-needed foothold in terms of a right-sized role. In the long term, Pakistan must hold and sustain its gains by employing a holistic relationship with the US, unlike in the past. However, this certainly must not come at the cost of goodwill with China.

As both India and Pakistan scramble to adjust to the post-Trump-Modi bromance era, they will make amends. India is likely to revert to a stricter non-alliance stance. For Pakistan, it presents a rare opportunity to rectify past mistakes and reset its ties with the US on an equal footing, while maintaining its relationships with other great powers.