Lessons from History: Indo-Pak Escalations in Nuclear Era

When countries with long-standing grievances obtain nuclear weapons, tensions rise, and the likelihood of war is increased. That might be unavoidable. Regardless of one’s stance on deterrent optimism or pessimism, the fact remains that escalation between adversaries in a nuclear environment is a serious concern, with an unacceptable risk of it spiraling out of control. In fact, it can be argued that the extreme religious differences between India and Pakistan, the unique geographic conditions, and the existence of extremists, and chauvinists give the situation between the two countries a frightening urgency.

An era of peace and security was supposed to be established following the 1998 nuclear tests, but the propaganda and false-flag operations by Indian government in Kashmir escalated and increased tensions in South Asia. The concept of deterrence was well-established and logical, whereas proxy wars and propaganda were not. Both the initiator and the affected are inclined to move toward a sub-conventional warfare in the case of the proxy war, with the initiator seeking to gain an advantage and the affected seeking to escape this odd “no peace-no war” phase.

Pakistan is the nation most affected by the threat of terrorism and has been fighting it for decades. Terrorism is a global problem. No one can doubt Pakistan’s ability to combat terrorism, and holding Pakistan accountable for aiding and abetting terrorism is a nebulous justification.

India’s May 7 attack on Pakistan, based on unproven claims linking Pakistan to the Pahalgam incident and alleged terrorist targets, was reckless and may compel Pakistan to adopt stronger security measures to protect its sovereignty.

India propagated and orchestrated Operation Sindoor, which is threatening regional peace and security. It is the result of war-frenzied, mythologically motivated minds operating in Delhi under a Hindutva regime that seems to be running out of political capital. More than 57 international flights were in danger at the time of the incident because India was so focused on defeating Pakistan that it did not even care about civil aviation protocols.

After unilaterally suspending the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), obstructing the flow of water from the Chenab River into Pakistan, and conducting sorties on Pakistan’s six locations—Sialkot, Bahawalpur, Shakargarh, Muridke, Kotli, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir—this is yet another flagrant breach of international standards.

In addition to destroying infrastructure, including schools and a mosque, the Indian action resulted in 31 civilian deaths and 46 injuries in Pakistan. Furthermore, there are rumors that India is aiming to destroy the Nauseri Dam, which is a component of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower project and could have serious geological repercussions.

Pakistan has reserved the right to respond under Article 51 of the UN Charter, which upholds a member state’s right to self-defense. Pakistan’s military approach was defensive rather than provocative, as it has demonstrated. Similarly, its conventional superiority was unquestionably established as it maintained its composure during India’s humiliating collapse in a matter of hours.

If India hadn’t revealed its devious plans against Pakistan, it would have consented to participate in an “independent” investigation into the Pahalgam tragedy.

In a statement, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry claimed that “Indian leadership has once again exploited the bogey of terrorism to further its false victim narrative, endangering regional peace and security.” Due to India’s careless actions, a major conflict between the two nuclear-armed states is now more likely.

The UN urged the neighbors with nuclear weapons to use the utmost military restraint. In a statement released by his spokesperson, Secretary-General António Guterres stated that “the world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan.”

China regrets the military action taken by India. In a statement, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry expressed concern over the current state of affairs. “Pakistan and India have been and will remain neighbors.” They are also China’s neighbors. China is against terrorism in all its forms. We implore both sides to act in the greater interest of peace and stability, maintain composure, use restraint, and abstain from actions that could make matters more complicated.

While jingoism and chauvinism are present in India, some aspects of India’s media, culture, and politics have been encouraging their nation to engage in conflict. Maybe when they think of war, they think of action movies from Bollywood. Conflict’s true reality is far more sinister. Numerous lives would be lost, and suffering would rise on both sides in even a traditional conflict. The thought of a nuclear conflict is too horrifying to bear. Thus, the march to war must be stopped and common sense must win out. For the situation to de-escalate and return to a more manageable state, the NSAs and the DGMOs must maintain their contacts in addition to international efforts.