Pakistan and the Rise of Artificial Intelligence in South Asian Warfare

World-changing emerging war technologies are the start of the militarization of artificial intelligence (AI). It is leveraged as a strategic asset in the military arsenal around the globe, empowering autonomous weapon systems, enabling cyber warfare, and optimally complementing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). For countries in South Asia, especially Pakistan, the new technology revolution offers a double-edged prospect: opportunity on the one hand, anxiety on the other. As India and China march on in the race to develop and integrate AI across their military arsenals, Pakistan finds itself uniquely exposed. The AI arms race in the region has introduced a new dynamic to the strategic stability that has long prevailed in South Asia; more significantly, it presents an unprecedented challenge to Pakistan’s security. Pakistan has long faced daunting security issues, not least because of its troubled history with India, a regional power with which it has been a military and technological competitor for decades. A new level of competition will have to arise as AI is advancing rapidly in neighboring sectors, Pakistan is enhancing its military technologies and China has ambitious plans for adopting AI in the military.” We have civil and military applications for AI; AI is a new dual-use technology. The most apparent manifestations of AI lie in the military realm with autonomous weapon systems, surveillance systems, cyber capabilities, and integrated command-and-control systems. The technology can make war faster, easier, and more precise. But it also brings new risks that have never been seen before — the loss of human control over the use of lethal force and the speed at which conflict can now escalate.

Pakistan is observing these developments; while its immediate higher priority right now would be military AI, it is outwitting adversaries India and China. There will be heavy investments in AI technologies in India’s military modernization program. The government of India seeks to integrate AI into its military strategy — focusing on autonomous systems, precision warfare, and AI-enhanced cyber capabilities. This announced platform by India raises alarms, as Pakistan is concerned about India’s growing reliance on AI in an effort to firm up its military posture, particularly with respect to offensive capability, which can change the asymmetry of the balance of power in the region. China, too, is marching ahead with AI development and has set its eyes on self-reliance on AI technologies. Artificial intelligence — AI — is central to the Chinese government’s vision of a future military, and they are beginning to weave AI into defense technologies. China has been concerned about its autonomy as well as the destabilizing potential of China’s advances in autonomous weapons powered by artificial intelligence, surveillance systems, and missile defense systems. Considering Pakistan’s historical recourse to traditional deterrence to counter India’s military advantages, the militarization of AI is a new, vexed challenge. Pakistan’s most significant concern is that Defence AI will trigger an arms race in the region that could destabilize the strategic balance of power in the area maintained for decades. Yet even as we create AIs in chummy environments or, at least technologically speaking, unleash them on the world, accountability will feel like an immediate question. Pakistan is an outspoken supporter of the regulation of AI militarization. Islamabad, at the global level, has also been advocating for a complete ban on autonomous weapon systems. Those fears range from the potential emergence of robots weaponized to kill to AI making life-and-death decisions with no human input to the shifting of power and control in the world due to AI progress. So far, South Korea has persistently called for a global response to nuclear weapon proliferation. It believes parallels need to be drawn for similar international efforts when it comes to regulating or banning AI military applications. Pakistan also called for a legally binding global agreement to regulate AI-based weapon systems with respect to their development, testing, production, and deployment. Pakistan has also supported a protocol to the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) that prohibits fully autonomous lethal armaments.

The gradual development of AI military technologies in India and China poses a direct challenge to Pakistan’s deterrence strategy. Pakistan has relied on both conventional military capabilities and nuclear deterrence for more than four decades to maintain competitive security and deter aggression from its neighboring country, India. However, this balance is threatened by AI-powered weapon systems. The use of AI in warfighting may also accelerate combat and overwhelm decision-making processes, meaning less time for diplomacy and less time for the potential of an adequate cool-down between military leaders and politicians that could lead to de-escalation prior to the conflict. The speed and autonomy of AI systems may also trigger new escalation dynamics. It could be, for instance, that systems are powered by AI, capable of launching a rapid, pre-emptive strike, spawning a condition in which one side would feel it had to carry one out as a way to take over on dominance. Such a scenario could sharply shorten the time frame for conventional diplomacy to stop escalation and increase the chances of a misbegotten or unintended war. And because AI-driven systems can respond with breathtaking speed, there may not even be time to relay signals or negotiate for de-escalation to prevent war. Furthermore, the convergence of AI with other disruptive technologies, such as cyber warfare, space-based missile defense, and quantum computing, makes the security challenges even more complex. AI’s role in these domains could radically redefine the character of warfare and jeopardize the stability of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. And AI was being added to the game of cyber warfare. Afghanistan, China, India, the US, and NATO allies face cyber warfare.

Pakistan has repeatedly expressed concern over its militarization, yet when it comes to an international treaty to regulate AI for military use, that appears to be a long, protracted aim. India and China, however divergent in other domains, have staked out positions that are far from Pakistan’s. In addition, it has adopted the measures of AI in its military ways and is not ready to slow down the development of AI-based military technologies. For its part, China has taken a more tempered approach, aiming to study “effective measures” to regulate AI rather than impose outright bans. Despite the many challenges, Pakistan should champion a multilateral approach to AI arms control. The strategic needs of the country depend, in large part, on a mismatch — inflating what the military may require her for in the years ahead. At the same time, she also wants to guard against the potential of a regional arms race in her attention toward the nascent tech radar. Now, what if Pakistan wanted to avoid China pouring billions into AI development, and Pakistan cannot afford to procrastinate in developing the capabilities it needs to deal with the new reality envisioned in the 2030 Plan? Pakistan’s call for framing an international legal construct on AI militarization is only the end of the start, though. The future of arms control in South Asia depends on Pakistan’s ability to balance its security with the risks posed by the rapid growth of AI in the region. Indian diplomacy must once again reach out to find common ground with China and Pakistan in such an uncertain environment where it seeks arms control agreements in a balanced perspective where Indian strategic stability does not suffer due to the destabilization of South Asia and where stability also takes precedence.