Post-Pahalgam Events and Regional Stability

South Asia holds a longstanding history of rivalry between the two nuclear-armed adversaries, India and Pakistan. Many may argue that, though the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides helps maintain peace in the region by preventing large-scale conflicts, the post-Pahalgam events brought Pakistan and India close to a perilous nuclear escalation.

India, on May 7, 2025, under the pretext of terrorism, launched missile strikes targeting the Pakistan-administered Kashmir and some parts of the Punjab province. Five sites were in the Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and the remaining four were in Punjab, namely in Bahawalpur, Muridke, Shakar Garh, and a village near Sialkot.  The Indian Air Force arrayed Rafale fighter jets armed with SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs in this organized strike. These attacks were codenamed “Operation Sindoor”. The operation caused 31 deaths and more than 50 injuries. The Indian claim was that the targeted areas comprised the terrorist groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, which they claim were involved in the Pahalgam incident.  Pakistan declares this operation a violation of its sovereignty and considers this as “an act of war”. On May 7, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to retaliate and declared the act carried out by India “cowardly” and “blatant violations of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

India and Pakistan have lived under a long history of rivalry in the region. The Indian history of aggression against Pakistan is evident from major wars in 1965 and 1971 which led to  the separation of East Pakistan. However, in the post-nuclear era, the conflicts, mainly the 1999 Kargil war and the 2019 Balakot strikes, did not escalate to the level of full-fledged war due to the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.   The operation Sindoor has shifted the dynamics of the region because of the changed Indian military posture, which is evident by targeting the sites of Pakistan and broadcasting its success through the media. This move by India shows its inclination towards unilateral decisions and aggressions strikes against Pakistan.   As a counter-measure,  on May 7, PM Shehbaz Shareef said, “Pakistan has every right to respond forcefully to this act of war imposed by India, and a forceful response is being given. The Pakistani nation and the Pakistan armed forces know very well how to deal with the enemy. We will never let the enemy succeed in its nefarious objectives”.

Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan-e-Maroos on May 10, 2025, which targeted around 26 Indian military sites, using Fateh-1 & II missiles and  drones, across the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K)   and northern parts of India, mainly locations as Pathankot, Udhampur, and a BrahMos missile facility. After the operation, both states agreed to a ceasefire through the involvement of the US as a mediator, on May 10, 2025, which was officially announced by the US President Donald Trump, “I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site. We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.”

The four-day confrontation cleared many things for both states. India has increased its military capabilities through Artificial Intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons systems, drones, robotics, missile systems, and other emerging technologies, which may increase India`s temptation for a first strike and aggressive policies. While Pakistan also possesses military capabilities, which is evident through its excellent military capabilities, which is constantly ranked as the top 10 military powers around the globe. These can lead to persistent instability in the region if any conflict in the future arises between them.

In conclusion, to mitigate the risk of future conflicts, both states must start the process of dialogue, highlighting their differences and finding ways to confront them. Similarly, different conflict resolution measures, such as confidence-building measures (CBMs), should take place for the diplomatic engagement. Moreover, the regional conflict management mechanisms should be strengthened. Though SAARC exists, it is a weak platform and cannot ensure transparency and peaceful dialogue between its members. It thereby needs to be strengthened.