SMDA: Redefining Pakistan’s Strategic Horizon from Defense to Digital

On 17 September 2025, Pakistan upgraded and formalized its security and defence ties with KSA once it inked “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” (SMDA). The strategic timing of the pact is important as it perfectly aligns with fast changing regional security dynamics. This symbolic agreement is drawn on the lines of NATO charter, wherein “any act of aggression against one country will be considered an act against both” remains central to the agreement. The official text of this agreement has not been made public, however its declaration of extended deterrence quickly attracted nuclear proliferation experts in western media, raising proliferation concerns. The signing of the pact came amid fast changing security landscape of Middle East characterized by Gaza war, unilateral airstrikes of Israel on Doha and growing concerns on US security guarantee to GCC states. It is also termed as a strategic move towards greater self-reliance by KSA.

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khwaja Asif clarified that nuclear weapons “were not on the radar” while signing the agreement. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs adopted a more measured tone terming it a broad defense pact without implying formalized extended nuclear deterrence. The SMDA is thus a strategic masterstroke that grants greater role of regional stabilizers to the signatories besides fusing realpolitik of South Asia and the Middle East (SA&ME).

The extended deterrence concept dates back to Cold War era sought through collective security mechanism. NATO alliance, formed to deter the opposing camp, is not comparable to SMDA except peripheral alignment of article V which pledges to act collectively if one confronts aggression. The SMDA offers no foundation for a NATO-style collective security framework or even a credible joint nuclear deterrence architecture. Pakistan’s nuclear policy of Minimum Credible Deterrence vis-a-vis posture has always been India-centric and designed for deterrence by denial. Pakistan has not projected its strategic capability beyond South Asia. Moreover, Pakistan has neither any military base in KSA nor skeleton edifice for establishing a joint nuclear command and control architecture. Its nuclear policy though ambiguous, clearly exhibits Pakistan’s attempt to supplement its conventional arsenal to balance asymmetric equation with eastern neighbour, dispelling the Indian notion that space for war exists under nuclear overhang. Geographical non-contiguity and absence of any logistic sustenance chain between the two states also points towards greater military integration in conventional plane including defence industrial fusion, intelligence sharing, training and exchanges in anti-terrorism initiatives. This bilateral arrangement makes it a unique duo of nuclear-non nuclear agreement by Muslims states of contiguous regions of Asia.

The diplomatic and economic leverages are also offered by this arrangement. Continued economic assistance and sustained vital energy supplies to Pakistan by this comprehensive agreement. While safeguarding its national security against external threats emanating from Israel, Iran, and the Houthis; KSA also pivots to CPEC.

Pakistan has remained a major victim of proliferation-related forfeits in the past. It was subjected to 1989 Pressler Amendment sanctions followed by 1998 post nuclear test restrictions, underlining its continual susceptibility to politico-economic costs inline of its strategic ambitions. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains the mainstay of global nuclear governance with IAEA as UN nuclear watchdog. The first two articles of the NPT prohibit the exchange of nuclear technology and arsenal between the states. Any such arrangement between NPT signatory Saudi Arabia and a designated non-nuclear weapon state Pakistan would provoke international censure. It would then be seen as a violation of Saudi Arabia’s nonproliferation pledges and a blatant disregard to nonproliferation standard practices by Pakistan.

UNSC sanctions as enshrined in Chapter VII of the charter, nonproliferation regulatory measures enacted by international community, kinetic means directed by great power alliances especially recent airstrikes against IAEA-protected nuclear facilities of a nuclear-aspirant nation have all been used as responses when NPT violation is experienced.

Here it is important to highlight that SMDA does not signal any shift in the regional and global nuclear order. Pakistan has remained preoccupied with restoring its reputation as a responsible nuclear state. In order to create a transparent export control regime and a comprehensive nuclear command and control system, it has enacted laws and regulations into place. By unilaterally agreeing to abide by Articles 1, 2, and 3 of the NPT for bolstering its nonproliferation credentials for Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership, it has fervently embraced the worldwide nuclear nonproliferation regime.

After the SMDA, Pakistan has opened its cooperation with Saudi Arabia not only on the defence level but also on the technological and digital one, which is a new step towards self-sufficiency in the new technologies. In that respect, the Pakistani recently opened the INSPIRE Initiative, a five-year national semiconductor training program, worth 4.8 billion rupees in dollars ($17.2 million), that targets the creation of chip-design skills, educating more than 3,000 young professionals, and the creation of high-tech research clusters and laboratories in universities. The partnership between the program and the National Semiconductor Hub in Saudi Arabia that has appointed Pakistan as its first spokes corresponds with the vision of developing indigenous capacity in the area of Semiconductors, Cybersecurity, and AI-enhanced defense technologies.

Dr. Naveed Shirwani the head of the semiconductor task force of Pakistan has stated that you cannot run a hospital or a school unless we have our own Semiconductors and this is how the concept of national security in the present day is dependent on the aspect of technological control. In the same vein, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that those countries that are experts in artificial intelligence and semiconductors will dictate the future of the world. The project aims to be a logical extension of the SMDA vision that combines defense collaboration with digital sovereignty and symbolized the shift of Pakistan towards a multidimensional element of dependence on security to technological independence.