Southern Transitional Council, Somaliland AND Israel Connection

2025 has been the year of conflicts. With the Russia Ukraine War grinding into its 4^th year and Israeli aggression against Palestinians, Lebanon and Syria seeing no end, the world saw two nuclear powers, Pakistan and India fighting it out in a battle of wits with both claiming the upper hand. Trump, the ever glory seeker Hero, ultimately put an end to the claims and counter claims by laying down the figures of the aircraft lost by India. His claims of bringing peace to Palestine and in the case of conflicts such as Azerbaijan – Armenia, Cambodia – Thailand, Egypt – Ethiopia and Serbia – Kosovo all seem to be far-fetched as we see it today in 2026. More so, Yemen has again become a hot bed of activity with the Saudi led Arab Coalition targeting alleged supply of weapons to South Transitional Council by UAE in Port of Mukalla. This has vindicated Pakistan’s previous stance of not committing any forces to Yemen conflict during the last Arab Coalition vs Houthis conflict where Pakistan agreed to limit its role in defending Saudi Arabia but not intervening directly inside Yemen. But where does this leave Pakistan now as UAE and Saudi Arabia are both countries with close brotherly, military and economic relations. Both countries have large number of Pakistani diasporas. But the bigger question is not about UAE and Saudi Arabia, but rather the role of Israel in all of this.

Israel, since the Abraham Accords has established a very close relationship with UAE which has created a lot of discomfort for Saudi Arabia. It has increased pressure on Saudis to sign a similar agreement without resolution of the issue of Palestinian statehood which the Saudis have warded off till now primarily due to their economic strength brought to them by their influence in the global oil trade. Israel, on the other hand has recently recognized Somaliland, a territory that is internationally accepted as part of Somalia, has further raised eyebrows on Israel’s purported intentions. It is pertinent to mention that Ethiopia, a land locked country since the separation of Eritrea in 1993 had signed an MoU in 2024 with Somaliland to lease a 20km piece of coastline for trade and naval purposes while Ethiopia was to consider accepting Somaliland as a state in return. Although Turkish mediation had led it to be a tripartite agreement, with Somalia, Somaliland and Ethiopia trying to deal with the access to Red Sea, Israel’s close relations with Ethiopia and its recent acceptance of Somaliland statehood are bound to change the nature of this relationship in the future. With Egypt already fuming at Ethiopia due to construction of Grand Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile River, the lifeline of Egypt’s agriculture and critical to its water supply, Israel is playing a very shrewd hand at all ends. From UAE to Yemen to Somaliland to Ethiopia, it is surrounding Saudi Arabia from all sides through political and diplomatic influence, mercenaries and proxies. It is already believed the Yemen’s Socotra island is being used by UAE in violation of international agreements and Israel’s involvement would be no surprise considering its willingness to keep an eye on the Houthis, the only group that has targeted Israeli interests with impunity especially in the Red Sea region.

Pakistan’s recent signing of Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia was an attempt to formalize the defence relationship that existed for decades. Israel’s attack on Qatar, only made it easy to give it the final touches. The fact remains that SMDA was never meant for a UAE – Saudi Arabia conflict. It is clear from the Russia-Ukraine conflict that at the end of the day nations go to war and the Ukrainian plight today tells you that despite the economic support from EU and IMF and all the arms supplies from USA and its allies to the Ukrainians, it is the people who have to fight and suffer from the consequences of war. Same applies to any other conflict in the world. Pakistan must not expect anything from its partners in its conflicts with India and Afghanistan and must be ready to fight them out alone. Having said that, participation in Gaza Peace Force in Palestine under American leadership is also a dicey affair. Muslims all over the world are very emotional especially when comes to Palestinians, the devious nature of the Israelis and lack of humility on part of the American leadership trying to bring peace to Palestine. It is advisable is that a UN Peacekeeping force or at least a OIC flagged Peace Force enters Gaza, with a clear mandate to help the Palestinians in the ordeal and bring peace to the region. This should also require a clear American assurance that no Israeli aggression would take place and boundaries of Gaza as of Oct 7, 2023, would be respected. Any miscommunication of the mandate of the force would result in devastating consequences not just for the forces but also politically for the leadership at home of the volunteer forces.

Israel is quietly increasing its footprint in the region. An increasingly close and strong diplomatic, economic and defence relationship with India, Ethiopia and UAE, and acceptance of Somaliland, its footprint in the Western Indian Ocean Region has considerably increased. This does not augur well for the security of the region. It is essential for Pakistan to play a key role in defusing the Saudi Emirati feud over the STC while staying away from the Yemen conflict in itself. It is also important to bring the MENA region on a single page in understanding Israel’s motive in the region and to use the diplomatic channels to discourage Israel from creating further instability in the region. This has to be done without stepping on an individual state’s right to have a diplomatic, economic and defence relationship with Israel.