Strategic Implications of Finland’s Membership in NATO

When Finland officially became 31^st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it marked the end of Helsinki’s era of non-alignment. Article V of the treaty will provide a collective security umbrella to Finland against all foreign threats, primarily from Russia. Being a frontline ally, Finland will play pivotal role in deterring Russia in the Nordic Region. Any offense against Helsinki will be an offense against the entire alliance. Besides Finland, Sweden is also set to join NATO. But so far, the Swedish proposal is awaiting approval mainly due to Turkey’s concerns.

In the recent past, both Sweden and Finland have participated in joint NATO exercises. The BALTOPS, Northern Coasts, and Archipelago Endeavour exercises have demonstrated the military compatibility of both nations with alliance. This suggests that that the integration of these Scandinavian nations in NATO will be a quick and seamless process.

In terms of territory, Finland is one of the largest countries in Europe but has a small population of 5.54 million. Despite this, Finland provides considerable military prowess to the alliance. With a current defense budget of $5.5 billion (roughly 2 percent of the national GDP), Finland is gradually increasing its defense budget to 2.25 percent of the national GDP. This increment in defense spending is directed to support modernization of the Finnish military in order to enhance its combat potential. Finland has 21,000 active personnel and can amass 280,000 wartime troops in case of a military crisis. Its land forces are mechanized and employ a mix of modern and Cold War era systems. Finland has a defensive military posture but it has expertise in cold weather combat and littoral operations on land and sea which will augment NATO’s combat capabilities.

The Finnish Navy is essentially a littoral navy and currently lacks blue water operational capability. However, it is acquiring four next generation multirole Pohjanmaa class corvettes. These ‘blue-water capable’ corvettes will feature advanced anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and anti-surface warfare (ASuW) capabilities in addition to tactical air defense and mine-laying capacity. These corvettes with superior endurance, fire power and sensor support will significantly increase the naval prowess of Finland.

The role of Finnish air power is crucial for defending the entire Nordic region. After the Russian offensive against Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have signalled the creation of the joint Nordic Air Defence command for deterring Russian aggression. The Finnish Air Force operates a sizeable fleet of F/A-18 Hornet aircrafts and is in process of acquiring 64 F-35A Lightening-II stealth aircrafts from the United States. These 5^th generation aircrafts will grant technological superiority over their Russian counterparts. In addition, forward employment of AEWCS and ELINT aircrafts will allow NATO to look deeper into Russia while flying within Finnish airspace.

Finland shares a 1,340 km long border with Russia. Its joining of NATO has doubled the direct land-connectivity between NATO and Russia. Extremely cold climate and challenging terrain, shaped by an abundance of forests and water bodies, provide a natural defense against Russia. Finnish Lapland is in direct connectivity with Russia’s strategically crucial Murmansk oblast; the latter in general and the Kola Peninsula in particular hold pivotal placement in Moscow’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. The Russian Navy’s largest fleet, called the Northern Fleet, is headquartered in Severomorsk in the Murmansk oblast. Similarly, bulk of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is also stationed in Murmansk oblast. The entire Kola Peninsula is connected with rest of Russian mainland via a 700 km long Murmansk Corridor. Running parallel to the Finnish border, this single road-rail corridor is a major strategic vulnerability of Russia. From stand-off weapons to special operations, NATO will have diverse options at its disposal for cutting off the Kola Peninsula’s land connectivity with the Russian mainland.

The strategic placement of Finland in the Baltic Sea will undermine Russian influence in the region. The Baltic Sea is very important for Russia’s commercial maritime activity, and almost one-third of Russia’s maritime trade pass through it. NATO now will be better positioned to monitor and track Russia’s maritime and naval activities. In case of a crisis, NATO will be able to impose a blockade in the Gulf of Finland, essentially cutting off connectivity between Saint Petersburg and Kaliningrad. This will weaken the Russian strategic advantage regarding the Suwalki corridor, a narrow 70 km long gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus, and will thus provide additional security to the Baltic nations.

Finland joining NATO will transform power dynamics in Northern Europe. Russia has lost a significant portion of its conventional military capability in Ukraine. It no longer has the potential to redevelop its military capacity to match the balance of power in the Nordic region. Considering the intensity of strategic vulnerabilities, Moscow will be compelled to rely on non-conventional means to retain deterrence against NATO. By lowering the nuclear threshold, Russia will be forced to forward deploy its non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) to counter the conventional superiority of NATO. As a result, the region will see increased deployments of conventional as well as non-conventional arms which will increase the volatility of the entire region.

Overall, Finland membership in NATO is a significant development. On one axis it will strengthen NATO’s northern flank, and on other axis it will further elevate tensions with Russia. The counter-developments by Moscow, including potential reliance on nuclear weapons, will result in militarization of the entire region. In sum, NATO membership will augment Finland’s territorial security but would yield far-reaching consequences as far as strategic stability is concerned.