The Aftermath: Ramifications of COVID-19

The world is experiencing an unfortunate historical moment as it passes through the Coronavirus pandemic. It is a terrifying time as life has come to a grinding halt for fears over its potential to get much worse, although it is too early to anticipate the full extent. Nevertheless, it has taught the world how fragile it is. So far, the Coronavirus pandemic has impacted the world beyond the proliferation of the disease and the efforts to quarantine it. Also, the World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed its concern for the poorest countries with limited resources to control the spread of the disease, because of their susceptibility. This pandemic is affecting not only human life but will probably alter the entire political and economic spheres around the world. Moreover, with no end in sight and global lockdowns for indeterminate periods the concerns for the economic sector have increased because of the termination of trade between many countries. The shortage of supplies will unquestionably burden the global economy because of the increased demand for materials to fight the pandemic, panic buying and resultant scarcity of food and dearth of pharmaceuticals.

This coronavirus is not something new; rather it is a family of viruses that causes illness in animals. Thus far, seven, including the new virus, have been transferred to humans, but most are not as threatening as the Covid-19. The Covid-19 is closely related to The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which mainly impacted China and some other countries in 2002-03. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is another type of coronavirus, which first surfaced in 2012. Covid-19 is different from SARS and MERS because according to on-going research, many people might be carriers despite not displaying any symptoms, which makes it harder to control. Besides, the disease is highly contagious and the spectrum of disease is broad. Although approximately 80% of cases lead to only a mild infection, the disease is distressing because of its contagiousness. As of this time, around 20% cases of Covid-19 have been categorized as “severe” and the current death rate varies between 0.7 % and 3.4 % depending on the location, most significantly, access to timely and efficient health care. The ‘wet market’ of Wuhan is believed to be the origin of Covid-19, which sells dead as well as live exotic animals. Such markets, typically, heighten the risk of the proliferation of viruses because of the poor hygiene standards. Although the animal source of Covid-19 has yet to be identified, bats are thought to be the original host.

Covid-19 has overwhelmed the whole world as 185 countries and territories have succumbed to the pandemic. Developed countries like the US, UK and other European countries are buckling under the pressure despite having state of the art health care systems. The economies of said countries are also being adversely affected. Experts are dreading an economic recession greater than that of the Great Depression. Aside from that, Covid-19 specifically poses a grave threat to countries with a debt-ridden dilapidated economy, limited resources and deficient health care programs because, undeniably, there could be substantial tragic human loss.

The spread of the virus in vulnerable countries like Pakistan is inevitable because of the aforementioned inadequacies. Moreover, the absence of safety culture in the societal norms, recalcitrant masses, close proximity of the population and the hostility between the political parties and consequent mudslinging aggravates the situation. The country has been under a partial lockdown along with curfew in some cities under the directives of the Prime Minister; according to him, Pakistan cannot afford a complete lockdown as it has neither the resources to bounce back nor has it the economic strength. Around 55 million or 29.5% population of Pakistan is estimated to live below the poverty line and is at risk of starvation if a complete lockdown is imposed. However, if the country wants to tackle the threat of the virus, it needs to work on various strategies that inculcate hygienic practices and social distancing.

Only economically, the initial losses of the country in various sectors have been estimated to be Rs. 1.3 trillion following the Covid-19 outbreak. These losses are going to increase what with the termination of services like airline business and others, obstruction of food supplies, decline in exports and imports, decrease in remittances, withdrawal of foreign investments and other fronts. And this is just the beginning. It is noteworthy that the IMF has already indicated that world is heading towards more severe recession than 2008, and therefore its impact will be very serious on all developed and underdeveloped countries. Millions of jobs would be lost and countries dependent on foreign remittance such as Pakistan will be severely affected. As recession has its impact on exports, economies of world will crumble. The most advanced nations are falling prey to this pandemic, particularly in the health sector with thousands of deaths; vulnerable countries with no resources will not be spared in coming weeks.

This pandemic is a global crisis and can only be beaten if the virus is contained in every country. Nevertheless, even though the coronavirus is a declared global threat, affluent countries have the capacity to bounce back, even after experiencing losses. Au contraire, poor countries in Africa, Asia and South America will not have that chance and millions of people could possibly die. Developing countries or under developed countries will experience a monumental loss because people don’t get basic healthcare and they cannot afford to stay at home. They would die if they stay at home because of starvation. Tragedies like this pandemic that impact the whole world can be a harbinger of hope if humanity prevails as is evident from history.

Hence, it is imperative that the world stays united under the onslaught of this quandary to bail out the poor countries. One such way can be cancelling the debt of the world’s poorest nations as Ethiopia and Pakistan have already urged the world to do so. This is not something new, as in 2005 the world leaders set an example when the G8 countries cancelled the debt of eighteen heavily indebted countries in the amount of $40 billion. Furthermore, during the Ebola outbreak IMF also cancelled a debt of approximately $100 million for the worst hit countries of the world. Consequently, diplomatic efforts should be made by all the states to fight this foe, unanimously. Furthermore, the world ought to persuade G20 leaders, the World Bank and IMF for debt relief as well as financial aid for the healthcare system to help poor people in deprived countries, urgently.