The Erosion of Pakistan’s Strategic Patience in its Relations with Afghanistan

Pakistan and Afghanistan – two countries with shared economic and security interests – have experienced a low trajectory in their relations post US withdrawal from Kabul in August 2021. Under the Taliban regime, Islamabad hoped for a better start in its bilateral relations; however, instead of providing a strategic advantage and contributing to regional security, the ruling Taliban proved to be a worrisome thorn for Islamabad. The Taliban Regime backed out of the security assurances they made in the Doha Agreement, released TTP (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) ranks, and provided safe havens to militant groups like Al-Qaida and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The terror attacks skyrocketed in Pakistan after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. In 2024, terror attacks increased by 73%. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project report, TTP carried out at least 600 attacks on Pakistani Forces in 2024, and as per the Director General of Inter Services Public Relations (DG ISPR’s) press briefing on January 6, 2026, in 2025 alone, 5397 terror incidents were reported nationwide. Relations plunged in October 2025, when deadly fighting killed more than 70 people on both sides. Within two weeks, Qatar and Türkiye brokered the ceasefire agreement, but their efforts could not produce lasting peace. Pakistan ran out of strategic patience when, on 26^th February 2026, Afghanistan carried out an unprovoked offensive against Pakistani military posts near the border, and on 27^th February, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif declared an “Open War” with Afghanistan. Pakistan Military launched operation Ghazab Lil Haq (Wrath for Truth) and carried out coordinated ground and air strikes against Taliban posts in Kabul, Nagarhar, Kandahar, and Paktia.

The deterioration into open confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not a sudden or isolated development. Rather, it emerges from a gradual erosion of what may be termed Pakistan’s ‘strategic patience,’ shaped by a confluence of security, political, and geopolitical factors accumulated over time. The militant groups, especially TTP, have consistently attacked military and civilian installations in Pakistan, which Afghanistan keeps denying. United Nations’ Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, in its latest report published on 8^th December 2025, stated, “The threat from Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan in Afghanistan continues to pose serious threats within Afghanistan, regionally and beyond.” It further stated, “Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan has conducted numerous high-profile attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil. These attacks have led to cross-border military confrontation, causing a number of casualties, as well as disruptions to bilateral trade.” Despite continuous terror attacks from Afghanistan, Pakistan actively engaged with the Taliban regime and demanded action against militant groups operating from Kabul. Since 2021 to 2025, there have been multiple secretarial and Ministerial level visits to Afghanistan; Pakistan’s Foreign Minister visited 4 times to Kabul during this time, Defence Minister and Head of Pakistan’s Intelligence Service (ISI) visited twice, on secretary level there have been 5 visits, Pakistan’s National Security Advisor visited once and there have been 8 meetings of Joint Coordination Committee and 25 Border Flag Meetings. All these visits and meetings focused on a singular agenda of security and demanded swift action from the Taliban Regime against terror attacks being carried out within Pakistan using Afghan soil.

Furthermore, Pakistan strongly believes in the hostile external elements’ exploitation of Afghan territory to destabilize Pakistan. DG ISPR and Pakistan’s Defence Minister have stated multiple times that India is actively involved in supporting and financing these militant groups to conduct sabotage and terrorist activities inside Pakistan. Their statements are backed by multiple pieces of evidence, i.e., the capture of Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav in Baluchistan is one such example. Pakistan authorities have also referred to the case of Ehsaanullah Ehsaan– former spokesperson of TTP, who was captured in Pakistan in 2017. According to official statements, he later confessed that India was actively funding TTP and other militant groups against Pakistan. Additionally, Foreign Affairs Magazine also reported the external involvement in Afghanistan, though without explicitly attributing responsibility to India. From Islamabad’s perspective, such cases collectively reinforce the idea that regional rivalry with India is actively contributing to militancy targeting Pakistan.

The Afghan Taliban have shown reluctance in taking any action against TTP. The hesitation can be understood within broader sociopolitical and ideological linkages. TTP has historically pledged allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, fought alongside them against the US and shares ideological, cultural and family ties with Taliban. Any action against TTP would threaten the Taliban’s internal cohesion and stability. Furthermore, pressurizing TTP too aggressively may push its members towards defection to ISKP, which the Afghan Taliban consider an ideological rival. Hence Taliban would always prioritize internal cohesion over other interests.

As of March 5^th, 2026, the ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan war entered its second week, showing no sign of immediate de-escalation. As per Pakistan’s army, operations have resulted in the elimination of 464 Afghan combatants, the destruction of 188 enemy check posts, the capture of 31 military posts, and the neutralization of 192 tanks and artillery guns. At the same time Afghan Defence Ministry claims to have captured 25 Pakistani Military posts and killed 100 enemy personnel. The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that ongoing confrontation along the Durand Line has resulted in critical infrastructure damage and displaced more than 66,000 people in eastern and south-eastern Afghanistan.

The confrontation between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani military establishment is likely to continue in the absence of a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough. While Islamabad continues to demand concrete assurances that Afghan territory will not be used by militant groups to launch attacks against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban leadership has so far struggled to balance these demands with its own internal political and security considerations. Amid these tensions, several regional actors have indicated a willingness to facilitate dialogue between the two sides. Türkiye has signalled readiness to offer its good offices to help revive negotiations and reduce hostilities, reflecting Ankara’s broader diplomatic engagement in regional conflict mediation. At the same time, China has emphasized the importance of stability in Afghanistan and the wider region. During recent diplomatic interactions, China’s ambassador Zhao Xing reportedly underscored to the Taliban’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the need for dialogue, regional cooperation, and effective counterterrorism measures to prevent further deterioration of security conditions.