The Future of Air Power: Challenges and Options for the PAF

The emergence of new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technologies, cyber, and additive materials, and the integration of some of these technologies with space-based systems is likely to revolutionize the future of air power. Air forces that are quickly transforming themselves into aerospace power and adopting new technologies are likely to gain significant advantage over their adversaries. This however would require a transformation in organizational culture, where data scientists, quantum engineers, software designers, and user-interface designers, would play equally important role in the decision making process to shape the outcome of future air battles.

Air Power and Emerging Technologies

The Gulf War of 1991 that is also known as the ‘first space war’ witnessed the extensive use of satellites to deliver precision weapons through aerial platforms. After six weeks of intense bombing, it became relatively easy for the ground forces to evict the Iraqi troops within 100 days, and with minimal human losses. The success achieved by the coalition forces through the air campaign changed the traditional concept of ‘Joint Operations’. Air Force was no longer seen as a supporting arm but emerged as a critical element that could achieve the desired political objectives independently, without mobilizing the entire military.

Many of the new technologies are being developed by private entities. This may have helped technological advancement at a much faster pace than was expected, but at the same timehas made it difficult to develop global norms for regulating these technologies to prevent their misuse by the non-state actors. Due to the dual-use nature of most technologies, several non-government entities are venturing into developing these technologies for military purposes, which could also lead to the commercialization of wars.

The use of Elon Musk’s Star Link satellite network in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is one such recent example. In the future other private entities could develop similar capabilities that could be outsourced to various conflict areas, in the form of ‘cyber mercenaries’ or ‘drone militaries.’ While many new technologies could shape the future of air power two of these technologies i.e. AI and quantum, once integrated into aerial platforms could significantly transform the way the future battles would be fought between adversaries.  

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Air Power. AI is an enabling technology with the potential to significantly boost the efficiency of any commercial or military application beyond human capability. Its application in the air power could make it easy to ‘aviate‘ and ‘navigate’, but the third important component which consists of ‘mission planning’ involving critical decision-making on the battlefield may take some time before the aerial platforms could be made fully autonomous for all the three segments of air operations.

One of the most recent uses of AI is the development of Collaborative Combat Aircraft(CCA), which would be ‘un-crewed’ and can be used alongside crewed aircraft to increase the numbers. The CCAs could be effectively used against highly defended targets without risking attrition of expensive high-tech aircraft and therefore would be an attractive solution for relatively smaller air forces.

AI-integrated drones are also gaining salience for air operations due to their affordable cost and effectiveness against tactical targets. Given the lessons drawn from the 2019 conflict between India and Pakistan where the PAF was able to inflict significant reputational cost to the Indian air force, there is a likelihood that a future conflict between India and Pakistan may witness the use of drones instead of crewed aircraft.

India has recently acquired 31 MQ-9B armed drones for $3.99 billion from the US, out of which eight would be with the Indian Air Force (IAF) and a similar number with the Indian army, while the remaining ones would be with the Indian Navy to protect its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). Due to their long endurance of over 35 hours the PAF would have to deploy significant resources to counter this loitering threat.    

Quantum Technology and the Future of Air Power. Quantum technologies are still being developed and have the potential to revolutionize air operations, especially navigation, communication and detection. With the use of quantum mechanics, navigation would no longer be reliant on GPS signals and hence would be more secure and accurate. Quantum could also make it difficult for the adversary to intercept communication signals andtherefore would be useful to dominate the ‘spectrum warfare’.

Quantum technology has also helped develop advanced sensors for surveillance that could make the oceans transparent, thus making it easy to detect the submerged platforms, especially the SSBNs, thus rendering the whole edifice of an assured second strike redundant. States that are spending billions of dollars to build their second–strike capabilitymay have to rethink their future investments, as these resources, if spent on new technologies and other military platforms may offer more dividends in the long run.

Opportunities and Challenges.

The fast-paced development and the complexity of emerging technologies bring a challenge of assimilation. For example, when radars and navigational aids were introduced in the early years, it took longer time although the technology shift was minimal. But with the increase in complexity, the time to assimilate these technologies became shorter, and therefore now requires a workforce that can comprehend these technologies faster and develop warfighting skills more efficiently to maintain an edge over the adversary.

The pace with which emerging technologies are being developed makes it difficult for relatively smaller countries like Pakistan, to acquire and integrate many of these new technologies. There is also a possibility that some of the technologies may not be able to deliver as per their perceived potential and may eventually fade away. To prepare itself for future challenges, it may be useful for the PAF to carry out a realistic assessment of the threat spectrum; identify potential gaps; prioritize its requirements; and acquire capabilities that would be critical for the success of its future mission.

Prioritizing of Military Resources at the National Level.     India is spending around $78 billion on its defence and is building military capabilities to emerge as a regional power and a potential global power in the future. Pakistan on the other hand does not have the resources and cannot afford to get entangled in an unending arms race with India.

Due to the presence of a credible deterrence at the strategic level, it is quite likely that a future conflict between the two adversaries would most likely be short and swift and may witness the use of ‘crewed and uncrewed’ aerial platforms. It is therefore imperative that the available resources be re-prioritised to strengthen the air power rather than spending on big-ticket military items that may have little use in a future India–Pakistan conflict.

Acquisition of New Technologies Remains a Challenge. Acquisition of emerging technologies from external sources would remain a major challenge due to political and economic constraints, and Pakistan does not have an indigenous technological base where these technologies could be developed. To narrow the growing technological gap, Pakistan, therefore, will have to mobilize all available resources and build an active partnership between the defence sector, government entities, and the private sector. The establishment of the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) that is working under the PAF could be one of the models, but it is led by the military and therefore it is clear if it would be able to attract major private companies for investments and to lead the research in new technologies.

Space Needs to be Given Priority. ​Without indigenous space-based assets, it would be difficult to conduct future military operations, especially the air operations. Few satellites that Pakistan has been able to launch with Chinese assistance have limited capacity and may not be sufficient to meet future requirements. It is therefore important that Space as a domain be given its due priority with a future vision of transforming the PAF into an aerospace entity.

Acquisition of AI-Assisted Un-crewed Aircraft. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) and drones have emerged as a lucrative option for the air forces to increase their mass(numbers) without having to invest in the next generation of high–tech fighters and training of pilots which takes considerable time and resources.  

Need to Review Training Modules. ​Future air warriors need to be trained for high–skilled multi-domain warfare, where knowledge of new technologies would be necessary to accomplish the assigned task. PAF may need to review the existing modules being offered at the training academy and other prestigious institutions to ensure that the curriculum being taught is as per the future requirements of the Air Force.

Conclusion. ​Air power being one of the important elements of military power can create strategic effects with relatively little effort and in a minimum time. Advancements in technology have allowed it to launch weapons with greater precision by avoiding collateral damage. While there are obvious opportunities with the emergence of new technologies, there are significant challenges for the relatively medium-sized military powers like Pakistan.To overcome these challenges and to remain a viable and effective force in the contemporary threat environment, the PAF will have to be innovative and need to develop solutions that are cost-effective and which could provide an effective deterrent againstadversaries.