The Iran- Israel: Bilateral Conflict or the Brink of World War III?

John Mearsheimer has claimed that Israel has entangled the United States and Iran in a war. On October 1, Iran targeted directly Tel Aviv using 180 ballistic missiles, thus declaring a state of war with Israel. That was not the first attack; back on April 4, 2024, Iran released multiple drones and missiles towards Israel. But none of these threats succeeded in reaching Israeli territory since the country adopted a sophisticated Iron Dome defense system. This time, however, a few rockets were able to hit the biggest city of the country, the city of Tel Aviv.

But it should be understood that Iran’s recent attack was reciprocate in nature rather than being proactive. The strike on April 4 was a reaction to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria by Israel. Lately, Israel’s military and security networks Assassinate Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas operative in Iran, and also Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, who are an Iranian ally.

Now, an intense international debate is unfolding: Is there possible for a conflict in this region to extend to the World War III level?

Background of conflict:

The aggression of Israel is not new; it started in the year 2023 when Israel attacked the Gaza Strip. The violence does not cease from the Israeli forces’ side; more than 42,000 people were killed, thousands of them injured, and millions affected by Israeli actions. Even more wrenching, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has not stopped there; he has now sent troops into Lebanon, using the convenient formula of “de-escalation through escalation” to wage a war with this aim: the destruction of Hezbollah.

The war in Lebanon began over the recent Israeli intelligence forces cyberattack in the country that obliterated communication networks and led to the incapacitation of more than 3,000 individuals. Unfortunately, the USA, the country that labels itself as a liberal democracy and points at itself as a keeper of human rights, has deployed hundreds of soldiers to the Middle East to support Israel. This support from Western states has encouraged the state of Israel to act unprocedurally, thus breaching international law.

In this aggression, Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas, on July 31, 2024, while Hotel in Iran. According to the source, this assassination was planned for two months. A few days ago, the Israeli troops also executed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s commander-in-chief since 1992. Subsequently, Iran received a lot of pressure from both its citizens and international partners because there was likely going to be revenge between the two countries after the deaths of both leaders.

Is it the start of WWIII?

As for me, we can consider that the war is rather between Iran and Israel, and other large countries will not be attracted to this war. More importantly, strong states will not be escalating the conflict through the use of force.

Other than that, several reasons suggest the following and thus show that this is not a world war.

In both the World Wars, escalation was due to the presence of an alliance system. In the first World War, the Triple Alliance partners were Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Italy; on the other hand, the Triple Entente partners were England, France, and Russia. World War II was similar to the Allied powers, which are a group of countries such as the United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States, and China on one side, and the Axis powers, composed of Germany, Italy, and Japan on the other side. This time, however, there is no extended system of alliances to convert a local war into a world war.

The majority of scholars in international relations argue that as much as the U.S. helps Israel, China and Russia may decide to go for Iran in order to spite the U.S. However, it is not the fact that China and Russia are aiming to check the U.S.’s aggression in the Middle East. China has stakes in Iran as a partner for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but it does not want to fall into a conflict that may hinder its plans. More importantly, China has centered interest on this region, which is the Indo-Pacific region that poses many challenges to China. If China were to intervene in this conflict, it would lose some of the goals that it has.

On the other hand, Russia is already fighting a war in Ukraine. It aims to respond to military Western imperialism, especially with regard to NATO, which is very close to its borders. Hence, it is important for Russia not to interfere in the Iran-Israel conflict; it could turn out that Russia will come out of it a loser too.

Besides, Iran does not need this war to escalate any higher since it is already suffering from the economic sanctions imposed by some countries. The Iranian government is fully cognizant that escalation would only worsen Tehran’s economic situation and possibly invite worse sanctions from the Western powers.

As a result, the United Nations Security Council has planned to hold a session on October 2, 2024, to put an end to this escalating conflict. Unfortunately, if things keep going this way, there can be rather serious outcomes. Most of the oil is situated in Middle Eastern countries; if this war continues, the prices for oil will increase, putting economic pressure on a lot of nations around the world. Tens of millions will perish as they lose close ones and their shelter; refugees problems in neighboring countries will further intensify. Thus, the situation in the region could deteriorate that will spark major humanitarian problems; that is, the formation of a peaceful conflict resolution by the international community becomes crucial.