The Missing Agenda at Munich: South Asia’s Strategic Stability and Region’s Nuclear Reality

Each year, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) accumulates the global leaders to debate about various alarming threats to international peace and stability. This year, the 62^nd edition MSC took place and the major issues which were highlighted were Ukraine-Russia War and European strategic autonomy, following this the shift towards cyber warfare and artificial intelligence was discussed. It seems like the conference go for anticipation about crisis before its eruption. However, South Asia being one of the world’s most fragile nuclear region often goes overlooked. The negligence towards such a sensitive region propagates a distressing gap in global security governance.

South Asia being home to two nuclear powers that possess history of wars and unresolved political disputes exhibit a concerning scenario. After nuclearization in 1998, Pakistan has been able to prevent a full scale war with India due to its deterrence posture. But the stability can’t be maintained by efforts of one party all alone. The objective of Pakistan’s security doctrine falling under the credible minimum deterrence was never to impose dominance. The main goal was to be able to deter aggression from its adversary. With the passage of time, change in India’s military doctrine was seen as the initiation of limited war under the nuclear shadow. India’s military modernization encompassing areas like attaining naval expansion, advance airpower among which the recent Rafale deal worth US$35 billion is most prominent. It has also focused on acquiring emerging technologies and advanced missile defense systems. The regional balance has been shaken due to such rapid modernization.

The rapid and uncontrolled modernization of weapons ultimately leads to arms race thus hampering the strategic stability of region. Platforms such as MSC should take the issue in notice and should include it in its core agenda.

For South Asia, strategic stability can’t be elaborated while being isolated from political context. The unresolved dispute between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir continues to be the reason of crisis for decades. Tensions have been rising in South Asia due to unilateral actions taken by India and its denial of dialogues with Pakistan. Military doctrines can’t assure stability all alone, political mistrusts should also be addressed and solved in order to gain durable peace.

Security environment of South Asia is greatly affected by erosion of arms control regimes on international level. The typical structure of nuclear arms is hampered by modernization of nuclear arsenals by major powers and their focus on acquiring emerging technologies like hypersonic missiles and counter-space capabilities.  Ultimately, the developing states would have to rethink about their strategies and further reshape their posture according to global trends.

Crisis management also goes underappreciated on international forums at several instances. Analyzing the last decade of South Asia, it can be noticed that near escalatory episodes were seen that point out how rapidly the situation can be intensified. The main reasons for increase of miscalculation’s risk is media driven nationalism, the misinformation and the technological advancements. Proper communication channels should be introduced but the lack of political will from India always hinders it. Strategic restraint regimes have been proposed by Pakistan in the past.  The Strategic restraint regime proposed since 1998 was aimed at maintaining the conventional balance and to prevent missile race. The SRR has been reoffered at different occasions including the 2004 dialogue process but India has rejected the restraint imperatives claiming that these are not in line with the security perspective of India.

International frameworks such as MSC should not look at South Asia just through the lens of great power competition. The focus should be on implementing risk reduction mechanisms in the region. Emphasis on multi-polarity at MSC presents an opportunity to align South Asia’s case in global debates. The international system is fragmented and interconnectedness between regional rivalries and global competition do affect the local deterrence equations. By realizing this interconnectedness, transparency should be upheld and efforts to build crisis communication channels should be prompted.

Pakistan should move forward with approach of proactive diplomacy while maintaining the calibrated deterrence. The longstanding commitment towards restraint should be upheld while endorsing balanced measures from its neighbour. Strategic stability offers benefits to all the parties involved as it lessens the risk of disastrous miscalculation. The MSC should deliberately handle South Asia’s case as it requires immediate fixation. Political mistrust, pursuit of emerging military technologies and the unresolved disputes exhibit an erratic environment. Avoiding these factors will just delay the mandatory engagement but it will not erode their importance. South Asia’s strategic stability agenda should not be missing in global security dialogue. Establishing communication channels should be prioritized as it is a prominent way to secure durable peace. The regional actors as well as the international platforms should be held responsible. It should be recognized that stability in South Asia is interconnected with stability in the broader global structure. If the stability is not sustained, the outcome can expand far beyond the subcontinent.