The Potential Resurgence of ‘America First’ and Way Forward for Pakistan

With the presidential elections in the United States fast approaching, the potential resurgence of the ‘America First’ policy has become a topical subject with speculations from both Donald Trump supporters and critics. President Joe Biden’s failure to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars despite massive international outcry and huge protests in solidarity with Palestine at home, respectively, has significantly diminished the chances of his re-election. Both this rhetoric and the results of early polls indicate Trump’s return to the White House and with that, the revival of the America First policy.

During his first presidency, Trump advocated for a United States that would be powerful but reclusive, focused on maximisation of its interests with minimum international engagement. While the America First policy is largely perceived and advertised as isolationist, the purporters of this policy call it misconstrual. Published recently in May 2024, the America First Policy Institute in its book An America First Approach to U.S. National Security underlines that “America First is not isolationist… It is, however, characteristically distinct from a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country”.

Geopolitically, the America First policy calls for a transactional approach to diplomacy. Trump’s re-election would mean unwavering support for Israel, the historic, long-standing ally serving American interests of defence and intelligence sharing, technology development, and hegemonic influence in the Middle East. Aligned with Trump’s discriminatory view of Muslims as terrorists, there seems to be no immediate cessation of Israeli hostilities in Gaza.

In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, however, Trump has reiterated his intentions to end the war within 24 hours of assuming office. Having once already lost the shade of the US security umbrella, this statement has raised concerns of transatlantic security in its European allies.

Further adding to their security concerns is Trump’s attempt to pull the US out from NATO in his previous term, a threat that would linger closer in a possible second term.

Having witnessed the role of the US reduced to a passive superpower under the previous Trump administration, which left Asian allies like Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to fend for themselves against China, these allies now find themselves in a similar perplexity as the US election draws in.

China, which Trump considers an immediate peril, would be another focal point of the America First policy. The new Trump administration would be vocal about decoupling from China, restricting access of Chinese companies to the American market, enforcing visa restrictions on Chinese tourists and students, and implementing higher tariffs.

Economically, the America First policy would hinge on tax cuts internally but trade protectionism and export-oriented growth externally. Another US-China trade war might be on the horizon but with greater global fallout this time around. Such an economic approach that considers trade a zero-sum game where one’s gains translate into another’s losses would largely weaken the US presence abroad, raising risks of anarchy and weakening influence of the liberal order.

The potential resurgence of America First has also raised concerns for countries like Pakistan, which have been close to American allies for decades but experienced a tumultuous relationship during Trump’s presidency. However, the bitter experience taught Pakistan valuable lessons of reducing over-reliance and expanding its political, economic, and security relations with other like-minded countries within and beyond the region.

The return of Trump presents another opportunity for Pakistan to balance its relations with the West in the face of its strong strategic partnership with China. Moreover, just as European states are striving for self-sufficiency and Asian states are reducing their dependence on traditional security guarantees, Pakistan must also save itself from the crossfire in this geopolitical contestation.

While Pakistan is already working towards diplomatic outreach and diversifying economic relations with Middle Eastern and East Asian countries, there is a need to accelerate these efforts. The stronger the economic web Pakistan weaves for itself, the easier it will be to navigate external pressures and strengthen internal governance, security, and economic resilience.

Pakistan should also actively support multilateralism as the world is rapidly transitioning from a unipolar towards a multipolar order. This would strengthen Pakistan to assert its role as a potential middle power in the Indo-Pacific as the America First policy is likely to reignite the great power competition in the region more vigorously.

‘War is easy, peace is difficult’ is one of the hard-learned lessons of International Relations. As Biden and Trump vie for political survival, the world must brace for two potential outcomes: an assertive superpower upholding the liberal order with its military might or a passive superpower protecting its interests at all costs. Pakistan, in both scenarios, should seek strategic autonomy, maintain a multidimensional foreign policy posture, and focus on its economic development and political stability.