The South China Sea: A Powder Keg of Global tensions

Beneath the South China Sea’s tranquil waters lies a complex web of competing claims, economic interests and security concerns. As China grows in power, so does the importance of the South China Sea. South China Sea is a waterbody located in Southeast Asia which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. It is one of the maritime route through which passes one-third of the world trade. The Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint, is also situated in the South China Sea. The Malacca dilemma has urged China to look for the alternative routes. South China Sea is home to eight countries: China, self-governing island of Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Singapore. All these countries have their national claims and interests in the South China Sea that collide with each other, sometimes resulting in military conflicts.

The People’s Republic of China has claimed almost the entirety of the South China Sea along with the islands and rocks present within it. China makes its claim on the basis of the nine-dash line. The nine-dash line consists of nine dashes or dots present on historical maps of China outlining its territorial waters. It encompasses the 90% of the South China Sea, overlapping with the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of other countries. One-third of the global trade traverses through these zones. China wants to control the passages and wants other countries to defer to it. Additionally, it has claims over the rocks and islands that lie on the maritime route. South China Sea is also rich in oil and gas reserves. By having a de facto control over the waterway, China could exploit these resources.

China makes it claim over Spratly Islands, Paracel islands and, Scarborough Shoals. Spratly Islands and Paracel Islands are believed to be rich in oil and gas resources. It is an attractive hub for fishing resources. Interestingly, these islands provide ideal location for military installation. China could increase its power projection capabilities. Additionally, China has territorial claim over these islands, which makes it a matter of national prestige. Vietnam has also its claim over these islands. Both countries had military conflicts over Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands in 1974 and 1988 respectively. Now, China effectively controls Paracel Islands, while different countries controlling different parts of the Spratty Islands. China and Philippines also had a military standoff in 2012 over the Scarborough Shoals. China has a de facto control over the shoals with constant coastal guard presence in the region.

With increased assertiveness from China, the US has also sought to counterbalance the state’s rising influence in the region. In 2011, Washington announced its pivot to Asia. The US has a military alliance, National Defense Treaty of 1951, with the Philippines. The alliance commits the US to come to its rescue in the event of an external attack. Though there is no formal military alliance with Vietnam, both countries have increased their defense cooperation in recent years. It is symbolized in the form of joint military exercises and lifting of the US arms embargo in 2016. Moreover, the US conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to protect the sea lanes of communication. In October 2024, the US conducted the exercise “Sama-Sama”. Japan, Canada, Australia and, the Philippines participated in the exercises. The purpose of all this is to act as a counterweight to the increasing Chinese assertiveness in the region, and protect US’s vital interests in the region.

Both the US and China have their interests over the Taiwan dispute. China claims Taiwan as its territory, drawing its claim from “One China Policy”. It does not rule out the use of force to reclaim Taiwan. The US does not have formal relations with Taiwan, but provides defense equipment and technology under Taiwan Relations Act. The US has maintained a policy of Strategic Ambiguity over Taiwan, which gives it a room for maneuver. In the final meeting between China’s President Xi and Outgoing US President Biden, the US has reiterated its respect for the One-China policy, with Beijing as the formal government.

Way Forward:

The maritime importance of the South China Sea is undeniable. Its accessibility to all countries is pivotal for the global trade lanes of communication. But the US and China need to manage the strategic competition being unraveled in the South China Sea. In the nuclear age, both countries need to carefully navigate the spectrum to avoid any escalation. Moreover, China must develop mechanisms of peaceful resolution of its territorial disputes. It can use platforms like ASEAN, Asia-Pacific Forum, to reach an understanding with the disputing parties.