Unrest in New Caledonia: A Potential Threat to Macron’s Indo- Pacific Strategy?

The strategic implications of the New Caledonia uprising are overwhelming both for Paris and its Western-aligned allies in terms of France’s broader Indo-Pacific engagement.  The recent upheaval in New Caledonia underlines France’s enduring colonial legacy in Asia and shatters its self-portrayed image as a legitimate Pacific power. The Indigenous Kanak people have clearly depicted their interest in self-determination and unwavering eagerness to fight for independence. Tensions have increased because of a French parliamentary reform bill allowing European immigrants to cast votes in provincial elections, which is seen as diluting Kanak representation. This is seen by pro-independence activists and indigenous leaders as a direct challenge to their political and cultural identity, which could lead to violent riots and other forms of civil upheaval. The harsh measures taken by France, such as the imposition of curfews and the closure of vital infrastructure, have come under fire and scrutiny from around the world.

A year after becoming president of France, in 2018, Emmanuel Macron traveled to New Caledonia to present a new Indo-Pacific Strategy designed to thwart China’s regional aspirations. “The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of the French project,” Macron said, underscoring New Caledonia’s pivotal position in this strategy. The strategic and economic importance of New Caledonia is intimately linked to France’s ambition to cling onto the island. With an estimated 25% of the world’s nickel reserves, New Caledonia ranks third in the world for nickel production. Both established sectors, like the manufacturing of stainless steel, and cutting-edge technology, like the lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), depend on nickel. Thus, New Caledonia’s stability and authority are essential for the maintenance of supply networks and the facilitation of global energy changes.

Furthermore, the island’s strategic significance is enhanced by its geopolitical positioning within the Indo-Pacific area. The administration of President Emmanuel Macron has placed a strong emphasis on extending French influence in this region, where the United States and China are competing for geopolitical dominance. France secures a strategic foothold  that advances its larger geopolitical goals by holding onto control of New Caledonia. These goals include thwarting Chinese influence and preserving a presence in an area vital to international marine lanes and security.

Despite being one of Europe’s oldest democracies, France is reluctant to grant New Caledonia complete independence due to a complex interplay of historical, political, economic, and geopolitical considerations. Since 1853, France has ruled New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the South Pacific. With a population of around 300,000, the archipelago is inhabited by 41% Melanesian Kanaks and 24% Europeans, mostly of French descent.

Following his recent visit to New Caledonia, French President Emmanuel Macron incited more unrest among the indigenous Kanak population, who are calling for greater autonomy and the redress of long-standing injustices. Proposed electoral reforms have sparked rallies that have seen significant violence, looting, and fighting, with several fatalities and injuries. Kanaks living in the area are upset because outsiders are deciding their destiny. Macron made vows to examine the reforms during his brief visit, which was meant to calm the unrest, but the protestors, who want the measures to be reversed, were not satisfied.

The Kanak voice is being disregarded, and they charge France of exploiting “democracy” as a cover for its failing policies. The economic differences between Kanaks and non-Kanaks are striking, with indigenous Kanaks experiencing much greater rates of poverty and lower levels of educational achievement. Macron’s visit did not significantly reduce tensions, even in spite of his admission of growing inequality and his promise to keep the peace. Pro-independence campaigners criticize the significant presence of French security personnel and emphasize the necessity for a political solution. Kanak activists emphasize their demand for equitable income sharing and respect for their identity as they continue to press for recognition and independence. The protesters’ stance is crystal clear: they see no security or tranquility in New Caledonia in the absence of independence.

It is unclear how committed France is to the global ideals of independence and self-determination based on its actions in New Caledonia. France is a well-known supporter of democracy and human rights, so it seems odd that it would be reluctant to grant New Caledonia complete independence. Critics point out a possible double standard in France’s foreign policy, arguing that this position betrays the democratic values the country purports to support.

The geopolitical rivalry between superpowers adds to the complexity of the issue. China’s bold Pacific expansion via resource and infrastructural investments has increased the geopolitical significance of places like New Caledonia. In order to preserve its own strategic and commercial interests in the area and counterbalance China’s increasing influence, France has maintained its presence on the island.

The nickel industry in New Caledonia is essential to the French economy and to international markets. The two main nickel processing plants on the island make a substantial contribution to the world market for this essential material. Any production halt brought on by political unrest can have far-reaching effects, impacting global sectors and raising costs. This economic dependence highlights France’s unwillingness to cede leadership, since stability in New Caledonia affects the world’s supply of nickel and, consequently, the world economy.

Amidst upheaval in New Caledonia, Macron’s Indo-Pacific strategy is put to the test. After deadly unrest on the island, Macron’s plan is severely tested. He responded by sending out 3,000 security officers, calling the situation “an unprecedented insurrection”. He insisted that the electoral reform has “democratic legitimacy” and backed the outcome of a contentious 2021 referendum in which the majority decided to remain as part of France; thereby weakening aspirations for independence, even if he delayed ratifying the reform in order to reach a settlement. Macron’s resolute position demonstrates his dedication to upholding France’s influence in a strategically important region that China and the US are fighting for. Because of its maritime dominance over these islands, New Caledonia, one of a “string of pearls” of French colonies spanning the Indo-Pacific, strengthens France’s position as a worldwide power and supports its claim to the second-largest exclusive economic zone in the world.

A complex network of historical links, geopolitical rivalry, strategic interests, and economic dependence underlies France’s reluctance to grant independence to New Caledonia. Although the issue calls into question France’s democratic ideals, it also highlights the intricate reality of contemporary statecraft, where national interests frequently collide with and occasionally supersede the universal principles of independence and self-determination.