US withdrawal from Afghanistan: A Dilemma for Pakistan

Afghanistan has plunged further into turmoil as American forces rush to leave. The emerging crisis has an aspect of inevitability about it. The Afghan Taliban has accelerated its military attack as a result of the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of American forces. Afghan government has faced heavy causalities that underline the fierceness of Taliban’s’ assault. Serious skirmishes are going on in 26 out of 30 provinces in Afghanistan. There is little possibility of halting hostility as there is no sign of political settlement by both parties.

Déjà vu may itself repeat the 90s, deteriorating situation may push the Afghanistan again into civil war but with more serious repercussions this time. The worsening situation across border has considerable implications for Pakistan as it struggles midst of geopolitical crisis. Spillover effect of instability in Afghanistan would bring serious foreign policy challenges for Islamabad. Despite the strong security policy measures, Pakistan may not escape this fallout.

Taliban’s military success in Afghanistan is threatening for Pakistan. It would not only exacerbate militancy in Pakistan but would also fuel up the religious extremism across the country. Most perturbing is the report of transnational militant groups trying to settle along Pak-Afghan border. The UN Security Council’s Sanctions and Monitoring Committee cautioned in its most recent report that a large portion of Al Qaeda’s leadership resides in the districts around Pakistan’s border, which have become the major center of militant activity. The increased insecurity in Afghanistan appears to have given numerous transnational extremist groups more room to operate. The escalation of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s actions is particularly concerning. In the region, more than two dozen militant groups are said to be operating, including many Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’s factions. The regional situation is particularly unpredictable due to their competition for territorial control.

The commitment by Afghan Taliban that they would not let any militant group to operate on Afghan soil led to Doha Accord and agreement on withdrawal of the foreign forces. Yet the UN Security Council Committee reported that Taliban still maintain links with few militant groups. The report has raised questions for Taliban whether they would stick to agreement or not? However the report was denied as “based on false data” by Afghan Taliban.

According to reports, consistent violence involving IS militant groups in Afghanistan has raised the questions regarding stability in Kabul post US withdrawal. Most of the victims were innocent civilians, in last month’s attack on a school in Kabul, claimed by IS killing dozens of students.

The most worrying and alarming for Pakistan is that the dispersed TTP factions are reuniting with aid from some transnational militant groups. This reunion has already led to attacks in tribal districts of Pakistan particularly in North Waziristan where Pakistan military control still remains not very strong. The strengthening military control of Afghan Taliban is boosting up their supporters and right wing groups in Pakistan.

Pakistan has remained the safe haven for Taliban during their fight against external forces in Kabul that gave Islamabad leverage in bringing insurgent groups on table with American diplomats. Now this clout too has diminished with US forces’ withdrawal. Furthermore, the refusal of Afghan Taliban to participate in US-proposed Intra-Afghan talks in Istanbul has cast a shadow in already existing tense relations between Kabul and Islamabad, while the Afghan government has accused Pakistan for supporting Taliban’s offensive.

Some comments from high tier diplomats in Afghanistan against Pakistan have crossed the diplomatic norms. This hostile situation with Afghan government has further created complications for Pakistan. The Pakistani foreign minister’s outburst and reaction in response to the Afghan national security chief’s anti-Pakistan remarks should not have happened. The point should have been addressed when a foreign ministry spokesman declared that Pakistan would not contact with the Afghan national security adviser, who is known for employing undiplomatic language.

It’s clear that post US withdrawal, security environment of Afghanistan would be as chaotic as its invasion at the hands of American forces twenty years ago. US invaded Kabul with no clear objective and now leaving without any objective that would create a greater mess while Taliban and Government struggle for domination. Many scholars and analysts see this as revival of 1980s when USSR left Afghanistan. Civil war and the looming situation could have been avoided if US had shown some seriousness in getting political settlement in Afghanistan. But now that’s too late.  

Biden Administration has reportedly thinking to make presence in Afghanistan in shape of intelligence for counter-terrorism action. Report by New York Times revealed that US government is collaborating with Pakistan to build a base for CIA surveillance operations. Pakistan seems to have not denied the negotiations with America, although the high tier Pakistan leaders have categorically rejected the US demand and said no American base would be allowed to build on Pakistan soil. However, there were some apprehensions that Pakistan would eventually agree to provide America access to some facilities, but in a recent interview PM Imran Khan has unambiguously stated that Pakistan will not allow any such facilities or operations against Afghanistan from its soil. This should now clear any remaining doubts.

Pakistan does not want two things in Afghanistan, first the hasty withdrawal of US forces that would likely trigger instability in the region with serious repercussions for Pakistan as predicted by many analysts, and second, Pakistan does not want a hostile government in Afghanistan, which is more friendly to India. Pakistan wants a power-sharing arrangement to emerge in Afghanistan. The government is more likely to be friendly to Pakistan if the Taliban plays significant role. It would be unwise for Pakistan to look for a complete control of Taliban for two reasons. First, Taliban are not unified, and second, Pakistan does not want a complete Islamic Emirate on the patterns of 1990’s Afghanistan on its western borders. This had not worked well for Pakistan and Pakistan had to bear the consequences.

Pakistan must proceed with caution with the prospect of Afghan civil conflict spilling over onto Pakistani borders. It has the potential to have far more catastrophic consequences for Pakistan’s national security than in the past. The horrors of Kabul’s four decades of strife still continue to haunt the entire region.