Weaponizing Water: India’s IWT Suspension and the Climate Security Crisis in South Asia

In an era where climate change is no longer a distant threat but a present-day driver of geopolitical instability, India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the Pahalgam attack marks a dangerous escalation. This unilateral move not only flouts a long-standing bilateral agreement but also spotlights the fragility of South Asia’s climate security framework.

South Asia—home to over a quarter of the world’s population—is among the most climate-vulnerable regions globally. The World Bank’s South Asia Climate Change Roadmap outlines how densely populated coastlines, monsoon-dependent agriculture, and rapid urban expansion heighten the region’s exposure to climate shocks. These structural vulnerabilities create a web of interdependencies, where water is not only a life-sustaining resource—but increasingly, a flashpoint.

The Indus River system, regulated by the IWT since 1960, is central to Pakistan’s agricultural and energy needs. India’s move to “suspend participation,” framed as a reaction to security concerns, disrupts a carefully managed equilibrium and signals a turn toward the strategic use of water as leverage. This action directly threatens Pakistan’s water security and sets a troubling precedent in which transboundary water treaties are treated as dispensable political instruments.

The timing could not be more perilous. The Asian Development Bank warns that inaction on climate could wipe out up to 17% of developing Asia’s GDP by 2070. Weaponizing water in such a high-stakes climate moment only compounds existing insecurities—economic, environmental, and political. It undermines regional trust and cooperative climate governance when they are most needed.

As South Asia confronts the converging threats of a warming planet and geopolitical fracturing, India’s IWT move is a canary in the coal mine. It exposes just how thin the buffer is between climate fragility and political escalation. This is not merely a diplomatic fissure—it’s a strategic rupture in the region’s already tenuous architecture for peace and climate resilience.

It is noteworthy that India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in response to the Pahalgam attack marks a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics, intertwining environmental vulnerabilities with strategic maneuvers. This action not only challenges established international agreements but also exacerbates the already critical climate security concerns in Pakistan and the broader region.​​ Furthermore, this move is perceived by Pakistan as “water warfare,” highlighting the strategic use of water resources as a tool of coercion.

Pakistan has also downgraded diplomatic ties, closed key border crossings, and imposed travel restrictions. These actions heighten the risk of military confrontations between the nuclear-armed neighbors as a result of India’s treaty violation which further exacerbates existing climate security vulnerabilities and adds to the heightened risk of military confrontation.

India’s Weaponization of the IWT and Pakistan’s Climate Security Vulnerability

India’s weaponization of the IWT must be viewed against the backdrop of Pakistan’s deep climate fragility. As one of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change, Pakistan’s national security now rests on an environmental fault line with its susceptibility to climate-induced disasters not confined to environmental degradation alone but extends to political, economic, social, and military spheres.

Political Instability and Governance Challenges

Climate change exacerbates existing political tensions in Pakistan, undermining governance structures and public trust. Frequent natural disasters strain governmental capacities, leading to inadequate responses and fueling public dissatisfaction. This erosion of trust can destabilize political institutions and incite unrest, particularly in regions already grappling with separatist movements or sectarian divisions.

Economic Fragility and Development Setbacks

Pakistan’s economy is deeply climate-sensitive. Agriculture makes up roughly 19% of GDP and employs over 38% of the labor force. Erratic monsoons and shifting glacial melt patterns are already wreaking havoc on crop cycles. The Asian Development Bank has warned that inaction on climate could shave off up to 17% of developing Asia’s GDP by 2070. In Pakistan’s case, economic stress translates directly into state fragility—through inflation, unemployment, and social unrest.

Societal Displacement and Demographic Stress

Climate-induced displacement is already underway. Inhabitants of flood-prone areas and drought-stricken regions are increasingly migrating to urban centers like Karachi and Lahore. These megacities, ill-equipped to handle demographic surges, are becoming hotspots of competition for jobs, housing, and public services. This internal migration stresses infrastructure and frays social cohesion—setting the stage for new patterns of urban violence and class conflict.

Military Readiness

Extreme weather events are also affecting the military domain. Climate volatility impacts logistics, response times, and deployment planning. More critically, the military’s increasing role in disaster relief—though crucial—diverts focus and resources from core defense priorities. Strategic installations near riverbanks or glacial melt zones are at risk, raising national defense concerns that rarely receive enough policy attention.

These multifaceted climate security risks must be considered and seen in conjunction with the debate on the ramification of India’s violation of the IWT.

In this context, it is imperative for Pakistan to strengthen the integration of climate considerations into its national security and foreign policy frameworks. This includes enhancing diplomatic efforts to safeguard transboundary water agreements, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, conducting true climate security threat assessment at a national security level, and fostering regional collaboration to address shared environmental challenges accordingly

By recognizing the interlinkages between environmental vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions, Pakistan can develop comprehensive policies that address the multifaceted nature of contemporary security challenges.

When considering the weaponization of water resources by India amidst a climate crisis, it must be viewed as a dual threat to South Asia’s stability. India’s suspension of the IWT not only undermines a critical framework for peace but also exacerbates the vulnerabilities posed by climate change. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort to integrate climate considerations into national security policies and to uphold international agreements that facilitate cooperation over shared resources.