South Asia remains one of the most volatile regions in the world owing to India’s reckless behaviour, state-sponsored terrorism and repeated unprovoked military aggression against nuclear-armed Pakistan, using false flag operations as the pretext. India’s accelerated military build-up, especially after suffering historic defeat in the May 2025 Four-Day War initiated against Pakistan, has further aggravated an already fragile regional security environment. Notably, the post-May 2025 period has witnessed a steady upward trend in India’s expansive defence acquisitions and military spending. This expansion appears to be part of a broader Hindutva-driven military strategy, which aims to establish Akhand Bharat by achieving regional hegemony through hardcore military power.
According to a Bloomberg report published on 3 July 2025, the Narendra Modi-led BJP government approved additional USD 12.3 billion for defence procurement, raising the total defence allocation for 2025–2026 to over USD 77 billion, which marks an increase of 9.5 percent from the previous 2024-2025 budget.
Contextually, India’s rapid advancements in missile technology is a threat to regional as well as global peace and security. In 2025, India tested multiple nuclear-capable ballistic missile systems, including Prithvi-II (250-350 km range), Agni-I (700-1200 km range), and Agni-V (5000-8000 km range). According to India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)’s chairman, India is ready to test its nuclear capable ICBM, Agni-VI, with ranges estimated up to 12000 kms carrying multiple warheads. With these ranges, India has capability to reach not just China, Middle East and Europe but also the United States and Canada. It is indicative of an ambitious Indian plan for intercontinental power projection rather than the necessity to maintain credible minimum deterrence. This is also evident from India’s nuclear weapons program, which is fastest growing in South Asia, and one of the fastest growing in the world. India had 190 warheads as of January 2026 and has added 8 warheads a year since 2023.
On 24 September 2025, India test-launched the Agni-Prime (Agni-P) missile from a rail-based mobile launcher. It is a canisterised, Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) with a range of 1000 to 2000 km and Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability. According to an analysis by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), India’s rapidly expanding missile program bears clear ramifications for regional strategic stability. The development of systems such as Agni-P, which are designed with ranges tailored for regional targets, pose a clear threat to Pakistan’s security. Its rail-based mobile launch system and MIRV capability complicate detection and interception, thereby undermining regional strategic stability.
Similarly, India’s pursuit of sea-based deterrence has further aggravated regional security concerns. According to the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad Information Brief titled Indian Naval Modernization, New Delhi increased the share of its naval budget from USD 13.3 billion in 2024-2025 to USD 16.8 billion in 2025-2026.
In December 2025, India test-fired K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), having a range of 3500 km, from its nuclear-powered submarine INS Arighaat. Hence, the development of longer-range K-5 and K-6 systems, with 5000 to 8000 km range, would bring all of Asia, Europe, Africa and Americas within striking range of New Delhi. While presented as deterrence, these advancements pose a grave threat to international peace and security and also risk triggering arms race in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and beyond.
Owing to the 2008 India-specific Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver and subsequent membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia group, India has significantly benefitted from Western technological support, including export of dual-use items and nuclear fuel. India has also been given access to sensitive defence technologies including missile systems, precision-guided munitions and intelligence sharing. The growing Indo-Israel nexus also poses a threat to international and regional peace and security. In November 2025, India signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Israel, enabling New Delhi to access sensors, electronic warfare systems and air defence technologies of Israel.
Equally concerning are recurring incidents reflecting weaknesses in India’s handling of advanced technologies. On 12 January 2026, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the PSLV-C62 rocket into space, carrying 16 payloads, including an earth observation satellite, which deviated from its trajectory, resulting in the loss of all 16 satellites on board. It was the second consecutive failure for the PSLV in eight months. Importantly, given the overlap between India’s space and missile programs, similar anomalies could surface in ICBMs, the launch processes of which closely resemble those of space rockets.
Similarly, on 21 November 2025, the Tejas combat aircraft, indigenously built by India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), crashed during an aerial demonstration before a large audience at the airshow held at Dubai World Central, claiming the life of a pilot. The crash publicly exposed the inefficiency of India’s defence manufacturing ecosystem. The possession of highly advanced weapon systems by India, if unchecked and unregulated, might lead to inadvertent escalation at the regional and global levels.
In the past, India has used technological failures as cover for its acts of aggression against nuclear-armed Pakistan. The deliberate launch of the BrahMos missile into Pakistani territory in March 2022 was a manifestation of this strategy. India’s claim that the launch of the missile was “accidental” was rejected by Pakistan. While that incident did not escalate into a broader conflict, mainly due to Pakistan’s strategic restraint, it underscored the risks associated with India’s irresponsible use of sensitive technology and weapon systems. In a region where reaction time is extremely compressed and nuclear deterrence dynamics are fragile, such dangerous actions could lead to catastrophic consequences.
India’s conventional and nuclear modernization, coupled with unbridled access to sensitive dual-use Western technologies for strategic as well as commercial considerations, have intensified threat perception of neighboring states, including Pakistan. India’s rapidly expanding military capabilities, reinforced by assertive strategic doctrines and external support despite irresponsible nuclear behaviour, are undermining deterrence stability and increasing the likelihood of miscalculations in the nuclearized region, threatening global strategic stability.
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