The water as one of the main components of the human life, economic growth and ecological stability has been a long-familiar thing that is taken as a given. However, with the increased demand and an increased uncertainty when it comes to supply, water is quickly becoming a possible source of conflict. Rivers, aquifers and reservoirs are perhaps the next battlefield in the world, supporting life on earth.
A greater number of over 2.2 billion people whose drinking water cannot be safely managed are now left without safe drinking water and at least half the world population face severe water shortages at least one month a year. A combination of physical scarcity and economic/infrastructural scarcity contributes to water stress. The pressure is mounting quickly due to rapid population growth, urbanisation, expansion of agriculture (agriculture alone drives approximately 70 percent of all freshwater withdrawals worldwide) and climate change.
Water stress does not necessarily lead to war but it puts the odds against them. Indicatively, the United Nations cautions that scarcity of water may contribute to tensions and destabilize peace and development. Recent statistics indicate that the number of water-related security events is growing at an alarming rate according to one of the studies, the number of monthly security events associated with water (war, unrest, terrorism, crime) has increased more than twice between January 2019 and May 2024. Control Risks one major hot spot is the transboundary water of the entire world population, an estimated 40-percent reside within shared basins yet very few transboundary aquifers have been formally governed by treaties.
It is particularly susceptible to arid and semi-arid regions. Water stress is very high in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa some studies have shown that 83% of the population there live in the extremely high water-stress areas. Shared rivers and shifting patterns in climate are also a strategic challenge in South Asia as well. As an example, the melting glaciers and alteration of the precipitation in the Indus River basin may become a burden on already strained relations between the neighbour countries. It has recently been shown that Pakistan is acutely vulnerable to water. Elsewhere, the violent conflicts of water rights have been reported on including when Iran and Afghanistan had a border conflict over the flows of the Helmand River. Climate change Less predictable rainfall, shrinking glaciers, increased droughts or floods entail that there is less water supply as well as higher variability.
Increasing demand More people and more farming, more industry and cities need more water, yet most systems are already stretched. This deals with the international system itself, rather than with the political philosophies that represent it.
Government and infrastructural deficiencies in most areas, there are poor water institutions, absence of information, absence of transboundary management and broken infrastructure (particularly in conflict areas) that only worsens the risk. Once water becomes depleted or uneven, there are spill-over effects to the society. Crops are failing, food prices are soaring, migration increases and the weak states become more unstable. According to the UNESCO World Water Development Report 2024, the undermined access to water compromises livelihoods and may contribute to displacement and instability. There may be competition over the decreasing resources, and in war conflicts the water infrastructure is weakened by other damage, so in war, water becomes an object of war and a target.
Violence is not inevitable. Specialists are placing stress on prevention creating resiliency in infrastructure, enhancing the efficiency of water use, enhancing the effectiveness of laws and institutions, and enhancing cross-border cooperation. As an example, water sharing agreements and early-warning systems are significant. Broad cooperation is often based on cooperation on water resources. The Sustainable Development Goal 6 of the UN Water at the international level has an objective of universal access to clean water and sanitation by 2030 but current reviews note that all its objectives are not on track.
The reason it is important to the rest of the world and Pakistan is no exception. In some countries such as Pakistan that are so dependent on river water and are already experiencing variability due to climate change, the water-wars threat is especially stark. In cases where water is used as a strategic tool, be it damming water up, be it the diversion of flows or be it the drying of aquifers, the effects on agriculture, energy, health and migration can flow across a region.
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