The world has seen substantial changes throughout human history, from the industrial, technological revolution to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. AI, the most vital transformation of the 21st century, is increasingly renovating the world, including the defence systems, providing strategic benefits and threats to the states. The powerful states are integrating AI for defence and military purposes. The US, in 2023, spent around $67 billion on AI and emerging technologies in its defence sector. According to the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) in October 2021, the People Liberation Army (PLA) spent about $1.6 to $2.7 billion on AI research. Similarly, India is no exception as it invests in AI research and integration in defence and military purposes by allotting around $50 million to AI expenditures every year. As a result, many developments have taken place, which exert implications for regional security and strategic stability, particularly for Pakistan, because of the historical events and geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.
Developments
India has been achieving substantial success in integrating AI into its defence structure and military sector, which enables the country to increase its warfare capabilities and operational tactics. AI is incorporated into the three major sectors of the Indian defence, namely Mhow (Army), INS Valsura (Navy), and Air Force Station Rajokri (Air Force). Based on the ‘strategic implementation of AI for National security and defence’ in 2019, the Indian Department of Defence established the Defence AI Council (DAIC) and the Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) to provide AI-based transformation within the Indian military and defence system.
Substantially, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the research and development wing of the Ministry of Defence established in 1958, formed the Centre for AI and Robotics (CAIR) to enhance the technological system of Indian defence for better warfare strategies, which actively conducts research to date to leverage Indian defence capabilities. Since 2011, the Indian Army’s Project Army Integrated Decision Support System (AIDSS) has been operational to integrate AI into all levels of defence in the operational as well as administrative affairs from the unit level to headquarters.
In 2018, the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog) declared to transform the defence system of India by adding AI facilities. As a result, around 140 AI-based surveillance systems, mainly cameras, radar feeds, and sensors, have been installed along the Pakistan and China borders. Likewise, the technologies related to atmosphere prediction, imagery analysis, drone-collision avoidance and ship tracking also started in Indian defence. In July 2022, the Indian Ministry of Defence launched 75 AI advanced technologies, including new AI machines for data analysis, logistics, surveillance, and weapons, through the combined efforts of the public and private sectors, research institutions, academia, and newly started start-ups.
Furthermore, India has also pursued autonomous weapons systems in its defence sector, such as drones, unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), and autonomous fast intercept boats (AFIBs). The crucial developments in autonomous weapons include the Drishti-10 medium altitude long endurance (MALE), MQ-9B Reaper Drone, S-400 anti-ballistic Missile defence (BMD) system, and the remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) of up to 120 kilometres range. In 2021, 75 aerial drones with AI capabilities were enabled by the Indian army to enhance Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Consequently, AI plays a major role in cyberwarfare and electronic warfare by providing cyber defence against malicious software and adversary attacks. In June 2018, the Ministry of Defence highlighted the significance of AI usage for military preparedness in aviation, land warfare, cyber defence, as well as against nuclear and biological attack.
Regional implications
The enhanced AI incorporation into India’s defence system possesses several implications for the South Asian region generally and Pakistan particularly, changing the security dynamics and increasing the security dilemma of the region. The conventional warfare and military breach between India and Pakistan is increasing due to the investments of India in AI technologies, autonomous weapons, and precision targeting weapons. Further, it increases India’s situational attentiveness and steering precision in the conflicts, increasing the security dilemma for Pakistan. In addition, the persisting development of autonomous weapons systems and AI-based technologies increases the offensive capabilities of India, leading other states of South Asia to perceive it as a threat to their security and strategic stability, and move towards self-help by increasing their competencies. Likewise, these developments can cause nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan based on Pakistan’s threat to its nuclear deterrence due to the AI-based weapons that can easily target nuclear assets. As a result, it destabilises the security situation and power balance of South Asia, triggering a new arms race in the region.
Additionally, the increased dependency on technologies can fuel the decision-making time as more rapid decisions can result in huge catastrophes and maliciousness, specifically during the conflictual situations between India and Pakistan. Resulting in new and modernised forms of warfare such as drone attacks, autonomous weapons bombardment, or cyberattacks. Cyberwarfare can be a major issue in the region, especially between India and Pakistan, because it can threaten the nuclear command and control systems, escalating the menace of unpremeditated conflict. Simultaneously, the advancement of weapons and AI integration raises humanitarian and ethical concerns, mainly due to the autonomous weapons, which cause immense human casualties and collateral damage. Hence, the increased military and AI advancements of India can exert great instability in South Asia, mainly between India and Pakistan, where mistakes or anger can lead to serious impacts.
Policy Options for Pakistan
Pakistan needs to transform its defence system with a comprehensive policy set for countering India’s changing security dynamics. Firstly, Pakistan should analyse and assess the status of its military and technological policies, compared with India’s AI strategies and their implications. Based on the reviews, Pakistan should bring changes to its military doctrine for integrating AI technologies and taking vital steps to strengthen its deterrence capabilities. Secondly, a detailed national AI plan should be formulated along with an institution under the administrative control of the Ministry of Defence in Pakistan to ensure research in AI in defence and the implementation of the formed doctrines.
Thirdly, to ensure consistency and accuracy in the conducted AI research and proper and timely execution, a strong collaboration should be accelerated between academia, defence industries, and new start-ups, which will enable AI-based weaponry system development. Fourthly, to enhance its AI capabilities, Pakistan should strengthen its relations with countries, such as China, which possess innovative technological proficiencies. It will help Pakistan in working on shared projects and capacity-building training for producing talented and capable individuals who can support the technological sector. Fifthly, for human security and humanitarian concerns, Pakistan should engage actively in international platforms, mainly for the arms control of lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs), encouraging accountable technological advancements.
Conclusion
The AI development in the Indian Defence system has exerted momentous consequences on the regional security conditions, particularly for Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan must take precautions by framing detailed policies for improving its defence sector with modern technologies and equipment to maintain strategic stability. These steps may involve formulating an AI strategy, capacity building, and international cooperation. Hence, through these ways, Pakistan can increase its defence capabilities, ensuring its strategic stability and national security.
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