The recent declaration by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that “it would not be a big deal” if the United States of America declines to extend the NEW START treaty, which is a Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, has echoed like shattering glass in the international arena. For decades the nuclear safety net was functioning under the network of arms control treaties that were made to reset the global order. It restricted humanity’s ability to destroy itself and create any further destruction globally. Now, as the last surviving pillar seems to crumble, the hopes are diminishing, fear is prevailing, and the world stands at the edge of an unregulated nuclear era. Putin’s indifference towards nuclear restraint raises several questions about the future safety of the world, as the new competitors might begin taking up their positions while the border collapses.
The NEW START was established in 2010 with the mutual agreement between the US and Russia to reduce their warheads, and the treaty, still in effect but under strain, was extended till 2026. It capped the deployed warheads of each state at 1,550, along with the confidence-building measure: verification and inspection. These were the key elements that advanced their mutual nuclear restraint and increased respect for safety measures. In 2023, due to the US-Russia tensions in the post-Ukraine war, the inspections were suspended, which sent anxiety to the global arena, and no talks towards the settlements were made. This was the major blow to stability, as the previous treaties, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed in 1987 and the Open Skies Treaty signed in 1992, have already collapsed, which has placed the NEW START treaty with all the remaining hopes to prevent a nuclear race and future destruction. The downfall of earlier treaties demonstrates that arms control architecture is crumbling, leading to several risks to humanity.
Moreover, as the treaty’s collapse appears to occur, it holds a significant position in the world beyond the US and Russia. It owns potent measures to trigger an arms race in the international world: modernisation of weapons, hypersonic missiles, and the inclusion of AI in nuclear systems will all become normalised, and the threats they pose will make the world more perilous than ever. The world is already bristling with over 12,000 nuclear warheads, a dangerous number to live with. Greater mistrust will become a result of treaty withdrawal, and a lack of transparency is what is usually an outcome of such withdrawals. In addition to this, it is seminal to understand here that as the major powers avoid restraint, so will the other powers, and the world will sooner become a playground of battles with each player holding advanced nuclear arsenals. The greater the number of states acquiring weapons, the higher the risks to human values. Another angle makes it evident that the world at large is gazing up at China’s weapons buildup (DF-ZF), Russia’s supplier side and hypersonic glide vehicle (Avangard), North Korea’s defiance, and India-Pakistan modernisation of weapons; these have already come across as spreading the nuclear risks, and they will heighten the tensions further in the transnational sphere. Quoting the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, in 2020 stated that “Humanity is one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.”
Further, through a regional lens, highlighting Pakistan’s security frameworks, as the international nuclear commitments erode, the smaller states might generate security umbrellas, generating insecurity for other states. Pakistan’s long-standing doctrine of “credible minimum deterrence” and emphasis on regional stability and nuclear restraint urge the country to step forward and help restrict what seems to be the blatant and dangerous future on the world stage. A multilateral forum for arms control is necessitated: the UN First Committee and the Conference on Disarmament, to avoid the mishaps that are bound to come with the collapse of the treaty. In the previous times, Pakistan has advocated nuclear-free zones and global non-discriminatory disarmament, and its position on the UN forums stresses its balance between disarmament and security. Its consistent position plays a role in demanding its upcoming nuclear ceiling to stabilise not only South Asia but also the global dynamics moving towards risky scenarios. Additionally, the South Asia region, carrying two of the oldest rivals and nuclear-powered states, Pakistan and India, is already on the verge of destruction due to a frozen relation between the states and intermittent facades. As the Global South is recovering and deepening its foot in the global landscape, it should not restrain from defining the next generation of arms control.
Lastly, the final hope, or the last safety net, is now fraying, and the world is heading back towards the Cold War era, where instability prevailed and the arms race was the focus. Collective responsibility is essential in today’s era as major powers are rising, and the economics of several states have fortified with time. The risk is real, and any tragedy would bring severe, unbridled devastation to counter. It is important to pinpoint that when restraint disappears, so does predictability, and with it, safety.
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