The situation of Pakistan with the Strait of Hormuz is more dangerous than ever. The war between the U.S and Israel and Iran has actually strained the strait endangering a major energy crunch. Reuters also announced that a tanker bound to Pakistan which was the first non-Iranian freighter to pass Hormuz safely meant that Islamabad had negotiated safe passage through the closed route. Pakistan has been in a hurry to find its oil lifelines. The navy undertook an exercise called Operation Muhafiz-ul-Bahr in order to escort tankers and protect important sea lanes. It is worth noting that about 90 percent of trade in the country is done through the sea. This austerity (school closings, reduced travel) was a move by the government to use less fuel, although the government officials claim that its stocks are comfortable until mid-April. Analysts have also sounded an alarm that Asia will soon experience its energy crisis: approximately 80 per cent of the oil flow to the continent goes via Hormuz in which Pakistan currently has approximately 20 days of reserves.
Islamabad is walking on thin ice diplomatically. It is closely affiliated with Tehran and still depends on security relationships with Washington and Riyadh. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi went on record to thank Pakistan by its solidarity. However, Pakistan has chosen a measured pose: it approved of the attack on Iran in the United Nations, but it supported the Gulf demands to calm down. The foreign office has presented Pakistan as a bridge builder who can mediate with everyone. Prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, have met with Iranian, Saudi and others counterparts. Even Islamabad supported a Bahraini UN resolution denouncing Iranian missile attacks, although it indicated it was on board with Russia in its quest to broker negotiations. This balancing is a show of the intentions of Pakistan to ensure that all its trading partners were not frustrated by the tension.
In the porous Afghanistan, the violence has been burning. The exchange of mortar and drone attacks between forces on both ends took place since the end of February and killed soldiers and civilians. According to AP News, Pakistani mortar rounds struck Afghan villages (killing four) as the forces of Kabul retaliated. Islamabad charges the Taliban in Kabul with sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants – a claim refuted by Kabul straight off. The military of Pakistan now refers to the situation as open war following the bombing of Kabul and Kandahar to eliminate the militants. It also alleges that there is irrefutable evidence pointing to Afghan-based fighters in recent bombings in Pakistan (including a suicide bombing of 11 soldiers in Feb. Afghan officials complain that Pakistan is scapegoating them over its lapses in security. The confrontations have broken trade and brought about concerns of a full-scale war, unless it is mediated by China.
China has intervened in order to calm down the crisis. Wang Yi encouraged Islamabad and Kabul to end hostilities at once and resolve differences through dialogue threatening that further use of force would only aggravate the situation. The envoys of Beijing have passed by and through Islamabad and Kabul to facilitate negotiations. According to the foreign office of Pakistan, the country is in a dialogue process with the Chinese concerning Afghanistan, with whom they are in unanimous views with regards to the breaking of the clashes. In the meantime, the war in Iran is transforming the great-power bargaining. U.S. and Chinese economic officials held a meeting in Paris on March 15 over oil security issues: Reuters states that over 45 percent of Chinese oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. These supply issues humped the discussions as well and Washington claims that it is fine, at least temporarily, that some tankers pass through the strait. This highlights the fact that despite the remoteness of the conflict, Pakistan will be likely to be affected by the war on its security calculations.
Lastly, Pakistan is scurrying to hold every option available. Its navy went as far as organizing with Iran over the Hormuz passage, informing Tehran that the tanker was flying a Pakistani flag and required no escort. However, the leaders in Islamabad have their eyes on the threats. The future of Pakistan lies more in diplomacy than in fire; it needs to appease Tehran, assure Kabul and walk the fine line between Beijing and Washington. To date, the government indicates that it will use dialogue and caution hoping to maintain its vessels in motion and its borders silent in these dangerous times. Finally, a small slip-up may be expensive.
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