INDO-PACIFIC: A NEW DAWN

#1 · 22nd May 2024, 9:17 am

Quote from Manahil Jaffer on 22nd May 2024, 9:17 am
"Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia. The ocean is the key to the Seven Seas."
Alfred Thayer Mahan

The Indo Pacific, which stretches from Africa's Eastern Coast to Australia's Western Coast, is home to 33 countries and 2.9 billion people. To comprehend its significance and strategic advantages, consider this region as a single continuous theater that encompasses approximately 20% of the world's ocean surface, 25% of the world's landmass, and three-quarters of global oil reserves, iron, and tin. Approximately 80% of the world's maritime oil and 9.84 billion tons of cargo transit through the Indian Ocean region each year.

The Indo Pacific power dynamics evolved dramatically when India decided to become an all-out pawn for the US, resulting in the term change from "Asia Pacific" to "Indo Pacific". Partnering with the United States boosts India's position in the face of increased regional competition, particularly from China. This has fueled the growth of "minilateralism," in which smaller, more targeted collaborations address specific areas of concern. As a result, the Indian Ocean has evolved from a focus of primarily great power conflict to a hub for diversified strategic collaboration. With the arrival of the "Asian Century" in the twenty-first century, economic, military, and collaborative forces are swiftly redefining themselves to expand outside the framework of great power rivalry in the Indian Ocean.

DRIVERS OF NEW LANDSCAPE
Several critical factors are driving the adoption of these new mini-lateral pivots. For starters, governments are implementing "hedging strategies" to diversify their connections and minimize over-reliance on any single power. Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines all have hedging tendencies. They retain commercial links with China while pursuing security cooperation with the US and other regional nations. India is rapidly losing ground to China and the United States. Second, shared concerns require regional cooperation. Critical concerns such as marine security threats (piracy, illicit fishing, and territorial conflicts) necessitate collaborative action to preserve a stable and secure environment. Regional accords such as the Combined Maritime Task Forces (TF) and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) address piracy in the larger Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the existential issue of climate change forces governments to collaborate on clean energy solutions, disaster risk reduction initiatives, and promoting innovation for a sustainable future.
Furthermore, a developing sense of regional identity promotes collaboration on Indo-Pacific-specific issues. Regional organizations such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC), and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) reflect the Indo-Pacific region's developing sense of identity.

EMERGING PARTNERSHIPS
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, focuses on maritime security cooperation, humanitarian assistance during times of crisis, and technology collaboration in crucial sectors. QUAD was eventually enlarged to QUAD plus (7 members). It represents an emerging regional collaboration in the Indo-Pacific area. Quad members and other countries (e.g., South Korea, New Zealand, Vietnam) discuss common concerns such as maritime security and pandemics. AUKUS is a trilateral cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States that intends to strengthen Indo-Pacific defense capabilities, notably in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence. The I2U2 Partnership (India, Israel, the United States, and the UAE) shows modern collaboration in the Indian Ocean. It aspires to collaborate on projects related to renewable energy, water management, and technology breakthroughs. The India-Japan-Vietnam trilateral focuses on the contested waters in the East and South China Seas, aiming to challenge forceful behavior while upholding the principles of freedom of navigation and international law. Furthermore, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is actively working on economic integration projects such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
These collaborations tackle a number of serious topics critical to the Indo-Pacific's future. Joint patrols in vital waterways, information sharing on emerging threats, and capacity building efforts for regional coast guards and navies are critical to protecting freedom of navigation, combatting transnational crimes such as piracy, and preserving a stable maritime environment. Collaboration on clean energy solutions like as solar and wind power development, energy efficiency initiatives, and catastrophe risk reduction methods are critical to the region's long-term viability. Promoting regional commercial integration through efforts such as the RCEP, encouraging innovation through collaborative research, and developing resilient supply chains that are less vulnerable to external disruptions are all critical to achieving shared economic success for Indo-Pacific states.

CHALLENGE
However, navigating this complicated ecosystem presents its own set of obstacles. Partners in these groups have different goals and approaches to regional challenges. Resolving these differences requires ongoing diplomatic efforts to locate common ground and develop mutually beneficial solutions. Domestic political issues in each country might also influence the extent of commitment to regional cooperation. Changes in leadership or political ideology might have an impact on a country's desire to actively participate in these alliances. Striking a balance between national interests while negotiating the difficulties of major power politics, notably the US-China relationship, necessitates strategic maneuvering.

THE ROAD AHEAD
The road ahead requires a multi-pronged approach. Cooperation must be strengthened through joint military exercises, information sharing systems, and capacity-building projects in important areas such as maritime security and disaster preparedness. Expanding partnerships to include new individuals who share similar interests and concerns promotes a more holistic approach to addressing regional issues. Maritime security requires ongoing coordination on joint patrols, anti-piracy measures, information sharing, and capacity building programs to protect freedom of navigation and battle transnational threats. Promoting global commerce necessitates building regional trade integration through initiatives and encouraging innovation through collaborative R&D activities.

The rise of collaborations beyond the US-China dichotomy portends a bright future for the Indo-Pacific. Countries may usher in a more stable, secure, and prosperous future by developing a network of alliances that address regional interests and issues. This new dynamic needs a move from a bipolar to a multipolar framework, with regional actors playing a larger role in determining the Indo-Pacific's strategic terrain.

"Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia. The ocean is the key to the Seven Seas."

Alfred Thayer Mahan

The Indo Pacific, which stretches from Africa's Eastern Coast to Australia's Western Coast, is home to 33 countries and 2.9 billion people. To comprehend its significance and strategic advantages, consider this region as a single continuous theater that encompasses approximately 20% of the world's ocean surface, 25% of the world's landmass, and three-quarters of global oil reserves, iron, and tin. Approximately 80% of the world's maritime oil and 9.84 billion tons of cargo transit through the Indian Ocean region each year.

The Indo Pacific power dynamics evolved dramatically when India decided to become an all-out pawn for the US, resulting in the term change from "Asia Pacific" to "Indo Pacific". Partnering with the United States boosts India's position in the face of increased regional competition, particularly from China. This has fueled the growth of "minilateralism," in which smaller, more targeted collaborations address specific areas of concern. As a result, the Indian Ocean has evolved from a focus of primarily great power conflict to a hub for diversified strategic collaboration. With the arrival of the "Asian Century" in the twenty-first century, economic, military, and collaborative forces are swiftly redefining themselves to expand outside the framework of great power rivalry in the Indian Ocean.

DRIVERS OF NEW LANDSCAPE

Several critical factors are driving the adoption of these new mini-lateral pivots. For starters, governments are implementing "hedging strategies" to diversify their connections and minimize over-reliance on any single power. Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines all have hedging tendencies. They retain commercial links with China while pursuing security cooperation with the US and other regional nations. India is rapidly losing ground to China and the United States. Second, shared concerns require regional cooperation. Critical concerns such as marine security threats (piracy, illicit fishing, and territorial conflicts) necessitate collaborative action to preserve a stable and secure environment. Regional accords such as the Combined Maritime Task Forces (TF) and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) address piracy in the larger Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the existential issue of climate change forces governments to collaborate on clean energy solutions, disaster risk reduction initiatives, and promoting innovation for a sustainable future.

Furthermore, a developing sense of regional identity promotes collaboration on Indo-Pacific-specific issues. Regional organizations such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC), and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) reflect the Indo-Pacific region's developing sense of identity.

EMERGING PARTNERSHIPS

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, focuses on maritime security cooperation, humanitarian assistance during times of crisis, and technology collaboration in crucial sectors. QUAD was eventually enlarged to QUAD plus (7 members). It represents an emerging regional collaboration in the Indo-Pacific area. Quad members and other countries (e.g., South Korea, New Zealand, Vietnam) discuss common concerns such as maritime security and pandemics. AUKUS is a trilateral cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States that intends to strengthen Indo-Pacific defense capabilities, notably in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence. The I2U2 Partnership (India, Israel, the United States, and the UAE) shows modern collaboration in the Indian Ocean. It aspires to collaborate on projects related to renewable energy, water management, and technology breakthroughs. The India-Japan-Vietnam trilateral focuses on the contested waters in the East and South China Seas, aiming to challenge forceful behavior while upholding the principles of freedom of navigation and international law. Furthermore, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is actively working on economic integration projects such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

These collaborations tackle a number of serious topics critical to the Indo-Pacific's future. Joint patrols in vital waterways, information sharing on emerging threats, and capacity building efforts for regional coast guards and navies are critical to protecting freedom of navigation, combatting transnational crimes such as piracy, and preserving a stable maritime environment. Collaboration on clean energy solutions like as solar and wind power development, energy efficiency initiatives, and catastrophe risk reduction methods are critical to the region's long-term viability. Promoting regional commercial integration through efforts such as the RCEP, encouraging innovation through collaborative research, and developing resilient supply chains that are less vulnerable to external disruptions are all critical to achieving shared economic success for Indo-Pacific states.

CHALLENGE

However, navigating this complicated ecosystem presents its own set of obstacles. Partners in these groups have different goals and approaches to regional challenges. Resolving these differences requires ongoing diplomatic efforts to locate common ground and develop mutually beneficial solutions. Domestic political issues in each country might also influence the extent of commitment to regional cooperation. Changes in leadership or political ideology might have an impact on a country's desire to actively participate in these alliances. Striking a balance between national interests while negotiating the difficulties of major power politics, notably the US-China relationship, necessitates strategic maneuvering.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The road ahead requires a multi-pronged approach. Cooperation must be strengthened through joint military exercises, information sharing systems, and capacity-building projects in important areas such as maritime security and disaster preparedness. Expanding partnerships to include new individuals who share similar interests and concerns promotes a more holistic approach to addressing regional issues. Maritime security requires ongoing coordination on joint patrols, anti-piracy measures, information sharing, and capacity building programs to protect freedom of navigation and battle transnational threats. Promoting global commerce necessitates building regional trade integration through initiatives and encouraging innovation through collaborative R&D activities.

The rise of collaborations beyond the US-China dichotomy portends a bright future for the Indo-Pacific. Countries may usher in a more stable, secure, and prosperous future by developing a network of alliances that address regional interests and issues. This new dynamic needs a move from a bipolar to a multipolar framework, with regional actors playing a larger role in determining the Indo-Pacific's strategic terrain.