The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and the Indian Air Force (IAF) share a common heritage in the Royal Indian Air Force of the British colonial era. Following partition in 1947, both nations inherited portions of this force, beginning a parallel development shaped by their diverging ideological and geopolitical paths. Aerial engagements have played a key role in major conflicts between the two nations – from the 1965 and 1971 wars to the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes.
These historical confrontations have left deep psychological imprints on both air forces. To strengthen their defences, the two sides have consistently invested in acquiring advanced military hardware. The IAF carries the confidence of numerical superiority, both in terms of personnel and combat aircraft. On the contrary, the PAF maintains a defensive mindset forged from fighting a larger adversary, embracing a doctrine of qualitative edge to counterbalance quantitative disadvantage. Due to large asymmetry with India, Pakistan enjoys little room for mistakes – as manifested in Operation Swift Retort of 2019.
Today’s aerial competition is marked by striking asymmetries. India’s air force is substantially larger, operating approximately 1,716 combat aircraft compared to Pakistan’s 1,470. For fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, the Indian government allocated a budget of USD 77.4 bn which marks a 9.5% increase from the previous year, with emphasis on modernising the armed forces and enhancing indigenous defence production. In contrast, last year the government of Pakistan announced a USD 6.6 bn defence budget for FY 2024-25, marking a 17% increase from the previous FY. India’s overall defence budget dwarfs Pakistan’s by twelve times. Yet, Pakistan has consistently managed to maintain a credible deterrent through focused investments and strategic partnerships.
India’s air arsenal features a diverse mix of Russian platforms including Su-30MKIs and MiG-29s, French aircraft such as Mirage 2000s and Rafales, and indigenously developed Tejas aircraft. In 2016, India acquired 36 French Rafale aircraft, equipped with 4.5-generation advanced capabilities. Near a decade ago, in December 2024 India signed another deal with France to procure 26 Rafael M (Marine) aircraft designed for naval operations. Efforts like these represent India’s pursuit to gain technological superiority.
In addition, this year again, President Trump planned to increase military sales to India during his meeting with Prime Minister Modi on February 13, particularly including the F-35A. This supersonic advanced stealth fighter aircraft will give India a significant advantage in air power. Such a diverse fleet would provide IAF flexibility in air operations; however, it creates logistical complexities and maintenance challenges.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has comparably cultivated a more homogeneous force centred on Chinese JF-17 Thunder fighters (jointly produced with China) and American F-16 Fighting Falcons. Despite financial constraints, the indigenous element of the JF-17 program provides Pakistan with an option to modify the aircraft for modern combat. Apart from that the units of Chinese J-10C and French Dassault Miraj aircraft further add to Pakistan’s fighter jets inventory.
Moreover, as aging F-16s and Miraj fighters face maintenance issues, Pakistan has shown intent to replace them with the Chinese Shenyang J-35 variant. In December 2024, the PAF approved the purchase of 40 J-35 aircraft, expected to be delivered within two years. The procurement of the J-35, a fifth-generation aircraft with cutting-edge stealth capability, will serve as a good match for the American F-35 deal with India.
Besides that, Pakistan hopes to build more advanced fighter jets in collaboration with Turkey. In January 2025, officials from Turkey and Pakistan held a meeting in Islamabad to establish a joint factory in Pakistan for the production of the KAAN (TF-X) a newly developed Turkish aircraft. This fifth-generation fighter jet production move signifies a major step in the defence cooperation of both nations and aims to modernize Pakistan’s air force.
The February 2019 aerial engagements following the Balakot airstrikes demonstrated the volatility of the air domain and the powerful role of aircraft. India’s strike using Mirage 2000s against an alleged terrorist training camp represented the first cross-border air attack since 1971. Pakistan’s response led to dogfights resulting in the downing of an Indian MiG-21 Bison and the capture of its pilot. The aerial domain remains especially sensitive because of its speed, visibility, and psychological impact. A single aerial encounter gone wrong could trigger broader conflict with nuclear dimensions.
The struggle for air dominance between these nuclear-armed neighbours remains one of the most consequential security challenges in Asia. For all their historical enmity, both India and Pakistan understand the catastrophic implications of uncontrolled escalation. Confidence-building measures specifically addressing air operations – including advance notification of exercises and shared protocols for inadvertent boundary crossing could reduce risks of miscalculation. Transparency regarding aerial capabilities, while difficult in the security domain, might mitigate dangerous misperceptions about relative strength. Managing this competition requires not just military expertise but diplomatic finesse and strategic restraint from both sides—qualities that have too often been in short supply in this troubled relationship.
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