Pakistan and India went into a War from the early morning of 6th and 7th May till 10th May. The duration may seem to be short; it was intense and grueling between equals which generations have yet to witness in the last 50 years or so and would become central dynamics of War History for decades to come.
Delving into the War may be an interesting exercise for weeks to come, however, focus of this article is to understand the aftermath and how both nations can maneuver themselves into a winning position. As far as the war is considered, both sides have claimed victories, and it is like going deep into a rabbit hole without having a unquestionable outcome. The diplomacy after such conflicts are the real challenges and the ones who are more diplomatically astute are the ones who will turn out to be victorious.
The outcome has been mixed in both nations. Here one must say that Pakistan’s Government, Armed Forces, Media and public are on the same page. They are of the opinion that we have been able to give not only a befitting response to India but they have also been able to assert their supremacy on the battlefield. India, on the other hand, has mixed reactions. While public considers this to be a victory, Media has mixed reactions where some due to diplomatic reasons consider the ceasefire to be a reasonable solution, majority think otherwise and the reason of the onslaught (pehalgam terrorists attack in Indian Kashmir) has been lost in the fog of war. Government of India showcases its supremacy to have destroyed terrorist safe havens, the military of India is largely quite and rightly followed the tow provided by its government. Some quite voices have also argued that India must have exhibited chivalry over its chicanery.
Lets first discuss India. The first and foremost impression which should be unilaterally conveyed to the international audience should be uniform. This is a strategic situation where India has much to lose. One remains cognizant of the fact that India has for last 30 years created a far softer image around the globe than that of Pakistan. While Pakistan has been in the mix of terrorism and political instability, India smartly focused on their economy and diplomatic relations. Thanks to their enormous population and their manpower extensively working in the West and Middle East. Secondly, it has performed exceptionally well in the IT industry which has been one of the corner stones of their global acceptance as technology providers even if they are not considered the leaders. Thirdly have been able to diplomatically and strategically align themselves with the West, while focusing on their economic growth. This two-pronged effect has served them well. Their foreign currency reserves have been soaring ever since. Last but not the least, they have inspired Global acceptance through extremely intangible assets like having an ATP 250 Tennis tournament, Formula Racing Events, Indian Premier League and so on as so forth.
Pakistan during the last 30 years have been largely on the receiving end. While West has maneuvered them into fighting terrorism, her government have also not been instrumental in achieving what most of the third world nations have been able to do so. Pakistan has been accused of harboring terrorism, despite its claim to fight against it. They are financially crippled, diplomatically sidelined and politically fragmented. Pakistan in true sense has been on a nosedive while other developing nations have been on an economic recourse. Pakistan lifeline has remained on continuous dependency on foreign aid, IMF programs, Arab world support and political subservience to US. Their diplomatic track record for the last couple of decades on international playground has also remained abysmal.
Now the true question arises in the aftermath of this War. How both countries will position themselves on the international playing field. The two countries are on two different crossroads of global and regional politics. While India has much to lose, Pakistan can position themselves into global ascendancy.
As far India is concerned, she had already established herself as a major player on global canvas as the 5th largest economy of the world. Economic alliances and memberships like BRICS & G20 have served them well. Up until now US had also aligned with India against China for their strategic motives. India considered itself to be a regional power and had diplomatically steered themselves into an unquestionable regional Might playing extensive roles on international politics.
India should now try to preserve their outlook rather looking for ways to justify its onslaught. The more this debate continues on the global front, the more they will be caught up in the whirlpool of their actions. Until India’s government provides something compelling to the international audience, it is unlikely that the global academia will be moved by unsubstantiated theories.
Media plays an integral role in India’s domestic politics. It is definitely dangerous to ignore the Media but equally dangerous to be guided by them. Pakistan will continue to suck them into debates on long standing issues. India’s refusal will only tarnish their reputation, their acceptance will ignite their own public, so they are in the mix of a situation where careful decisions need to be taken. India’s narrative of Pakistan harboring terrorism will not fly at the moment. Request for Independent commission on Pehalgam will be the first line of defence for Pakistan. For the public, the India Government should continue to tap dance on the music of victory. They should allow the dust of this War settle and continue on their progress which they have been doing for the last couple of decades with great effect.
As for Pakistan, it can be a springboard for them to achieve greater heights and emerge from their diplomatic starvation. Pursuing a policy of benign neglect and total subservience on diplomatic and strategic global dialogue has not borne fruits for them, now there must be a seismic shift in global policy backed by strategic and diplomatic engagement. First lets evaluate how Pakistan can turn this War into their favour. First and foremost is the simmering issues of decades long conflict between India and Pakistan on Kashmir. This can be the first time when any voices will be heard by International players seriously. Trump’s statement for a dialogue between both these nuclear states on a neutral venue is one of a kind especially keeping in view the circumstances which inspired this debate. Indus Water Treaty will also come under this bilateral dialogue. Pakistan has to take each step very carefully and exceptional diplomatic intelligence will be required. It will be prudent for them to engage various think tanks within Pakistan before going into these negotiations. All issues must be discussed including de-escalation, bilateral trade, regional cooperation, peace and stability in the region and Kashmir. Pakistan’s foreign office and government should know that in any negotiation, there are two languages being spoken, the language of the requests being made and what’s been actually said underneath. Pakistan need to carefully plan and strategize.
The second is how they position themselves with the Middle Eastern countries. Pakistan’s defence strategy had long been considered of deterrence, however, now there is a shift in it and Pakistan can play a very important role on engaging with Middle East and other countries especially Islamic World on Military training, guidance and strategy. Middle East despite their benign attitude towards Israel-Palestine War are aware that when it comes to conflict between them and Israel whose side West will take. Pakistan must be able to convince that they should also align themselves in changing world dynamics having one foot in each boat.
Bilateral relations with other countries can be pivotal at this stage. Pakistan has a small window of opportunity to resize its image as a partner and not subservient especially to the West. Russia can also be a bilateral trade partner. Its long lasting, as China said, Iron clad relationship can be further enhanced with China.
In the fog of global debate, few opinions have begun to emerge. First, India’s prowess has been over estimated. Mistakes of the past cannot be repeated. India has to again ascertain its position in the Global arena as the international audience is now viewing India with different set of spectacles. Second Pakistan must play sensibly by first improving its perception on the global front. Erasing its impression of terrorist harboring state by redefining its role on global stage.
The life that nations live must constitute ingredients of wisdom learned from the past cobbled with the realities of the present. Seizing opportunities liberates nations from inner anxieties, global desertion and deprivation and fortifies to move in the direction of global acceptance, this is the only way forward for Pakistan.
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