Scholars believe future conflict between Pakistan and India could revolve around water disputes. The situation is very alarming because both countries are nuclear states. Pakistan has faced water crises and distribution challenges with its adversary since independence. The dispute was settled in 1960 through the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), negotiated by the World Bank (WB). However, today both the states have concerns regarding the terms of the agreement.
Pakistan is an agrarian economy. It uses the water of the mighty Indus Rivers for agriculture, providing 65% of employment in the sector. The IWT divides the Indus Rivers between the two rival countries. India gets 53% of the water, while Pakistan receives 47%. The eastern rivers: Beas, Sutlej, and Ravi, are Indian-controlled. Whereas, Pakistan controls the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India primarily controls and manipulates the water flow of the western rivers.
The IWT allows India to build small-size projects on these rivers. However, they should not exceed 1 million cubic meters (m³) or alter the river courses. In case of any dispute, the treaty allows WB to arbitrate or water experts will hear the case if both states consent. India has always violated the treaty agreements. Pakistan tried several times to stop India. However, India continues to build mega projects against the treaty agreement. Pakistan is concerned that India’s planned hydropower dams will cut flows on the river, which feeds 80% of its irrigated agriculture
To illustrate, the Kishanganga hydroelectric project has an installed capacity of 330 megawatts (MW), in the Jhelum River basin, in illegally Indian-occupied Kashmir. The dam gives India control over a river that flows into Indian-held Kashmir and back into Pakistan. It will transfer the water from the Gurez Valley back into occupied Kashmir, instead of allowing it to flow into Pakistan. In 2007, Pakistan objected, but WB refused to mediate. India did not give consent to the water experts to solve the dispute. In 2013, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCOA) ordered India to change the design. In 2017, India proceeded with the project, making minor design modifications and incorporating underground water storage tunnels into the system. Pakistan repeatedly approached the PCOA, but India refused to comply.
Similarly, the Baglihar Dam is located on the Chenab River, in the Indian-occupied Kashmir. It is a 900 MW project and the pond size was 32 million m³ in 1999. A series of dialogues continued from 1999-2004 but were a failure. Experts suggested reducing the pond size up to 13.9%. However, it’s still more than the agreed-upon 1million m³ size. This suggestion was rejected by Pakistan while India accepted it. Since 2010, Pakistan has made no official statements regarding the project.
The IWT is a flashpoint in the fragile relations between the two rivals. Both states believe that the treaty is outdated. It does not regard the recent challenges which intensify the tension. Indian media reports say that on September 18, India sent a formal notice to Pakistan, citing various concerns, and asking for a reassessment of the treaty. Meanwhile, Pakistan too has concerns over the implementation of the treaty in recent years.
India falsely claims that Pakistan receives a larger share of the water. According to Anuttama Banerji, a political analyst in India, the current terms of the treaty go against them. The rivers Pakistan is entitled to use, have much more water than rivers India control. In effect, India has access to 20% of the total water covered by the treaty, while Pakistan has access to the remaining 80%. However, his claims overlook India’s mega projects, which violate the treaty and reduce or divert water flow to Pakistan.”.
Banerji believes that the treaty does not take into account the newer threats of climate change and population growth, therefore, demanding renegotiation. However, this is a planned strategy that seeks terms to make it easier to develop hydropower and other infrastructure on the western rivers whose water Pakistan is entitled to use. Braham Chellaney in his book “Water, peace and War: Confronting Water Crisis”, states that the water crisis is a significant source of tension between the two. He predicts that the crisis further increases over time, exacerbating political tension between the two, and making water security a critical issue in the geopolitical context.
Renegotiating the IWT is a topic of debate due to growing water security concerns and rising tensions.
The treaty no longer reflects today’s realities and has failed to prevent India’s control and manipulation. However, it could also destabilize the fragile peace between the two nuclear states. Such renegotiation would require careful diplomacy. Regardless of the situation, renegotiation is a better option for India and Pakistan. Pakistan faces an acute water shortage. Pakistan needs to plan a careful counter-strategy address India’s water control as well as the terms and define terms for renegotiation.
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