In the past years, the BJP-led interventionist policies in the disputed territory have considerably altered the electoral and demographic dynamics of IOJK, further putting the legitimacy of the polls to question. By virtue of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Order, the disputed region has undergone demographic manipulation, whereby domicile provisions have been diluted, and controversial ‘land reforms’ introduced. Furthermore, the assembly and parliamentary constituencies within the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir have been redrawn under the aegis of a Delimitation commission, which was constituted by New Delhi in March 2020. The final report of the commission, submitted in May 2022 laid down the framework of new electoral jurisdictions in Jammu and Kashmir. The commission report gave six additional assembly seats to the Jammu region, whereas one additional seat to Kashmir region, thereby introducing a political asymmetry between the two regions. The BJP hopes to leverage this asymmetry to produce electoral dividends for itself. Most recently, in February 2024, the Indian Lower House Lok Sabha passed the Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill 2023, granting the status of scheduled tribes to Paharis, and other communities in IOJK. It also passed the Scheduled Castes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2023 which includes the Valmiki community in the scheduled caste list of IOJK. Such legislative interventions aim to increase the representation of the Hindu-dominated Jammu region in the IOJK state assembly , and pave way for gerrymandering political constituencies in the favour of BJP-led central regime, by skewing the electoral arithmetic in favour of the Hindus in an otherwise Muslim majority region.
Hence, followed after BJP’s extremely unpopular and relentless drive to bring Jammu and Kashmir under its ambit, the BJP views the assembly polls as a litmus test for the acceptance and popularity of its policies in the disputed region. While it hopes to bag seats from the predominantly Hindu-populated Jammu region, the BJP has also been reaching out to scheduled tribes, scheduled castes and other backward classes. On ground however, it remains unpopular even in the Jammu region, owing its unmet development promises, and legislations that have been perceived as unfavorable. The conventional mainstream parties like the Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, and Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference are vying for keeping the BJP out of the region, however, their past alliances with New Delhi offer little credibility to them, whilst the people of the disputed territory tend to resent the mainstream parties for their past collaborations with the Indian government. Amid the estimations of a multi-cornered result, Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), which has been fielding new political faces, and was known for tacitly supporting armed resistance against the Indian forces, is expected to complicate the situation further. During the 2024 general elections, Engineer Rashid had trumped the NC stalwart Omar Abdullah in the Baramulla constituency, which has traditionally been NC’s stronghold. While Engineer Rashid’s softer approach towards armed resistance has encouraged the traditional regional parties into acquiring a pro-resistance approach, however, his recent interim bail has, on the other hand, has raised speculations over the AIP being a BJP’s proxy. Despite, its growing popularity, the formation of AIP-BJP alliance, would only further increase resentment among the people of the disputed region. A fractured mandate, on the other hand, could result into further strengthening of Indian direct control in IOJK.
It is also pertinent to note that as long as the IOJK’s statehood remains revoked, the legislative assembly formed as a result of the polls will possess negligible legislative powers. The legislative powers will continue to remain vested within the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, whereas the newly elected chief minister, who will function as the region’s highest official alongside a council of ministers, would lack any substantive executive authority. The chief minister shall predominantly have an advisory role in critical matters, whereas, the Lt. Governor shall not be bound to oblige. This has led the NC, PDP, and People’s Conference into rallying for the restoration of Article 370. The Indian National Congress, which has entered into an alliance with the NC, has been walking a tightrope, vouching for the restoration IOJK’s statehood, however avoiding any references to Article 370. It remains to be seen whether this mantra of restoring Article 370 is merely an electoral sloganeering or would experience any practical materialization ahead of the polls. The BJP has however, out-rightly rejected any prospects of Article 370’s revocation on the pretext, claiming that there is no space for ‘separatist agenda’.
The BJP could be expected to make further arrangements to secure a mandate. Already, in the past one month, a large number of administrative and police officials have been transferred, an act criticized by Kashmiri political leadership for being politically motivated. Most prominent among such transfers is the removal of DG Police RR Swain from the post of J&K’s intelligence chief. Attempts by the New Delhi to further its control, or to repress or manipulate people’s mandate may also lead to an intensification of the armed struggle against Indian occupation. In any case, a cursory look at the electoral complexities suggests that the electoral elections may be well-poised to rather further jeopardize people’s right to autonomy and self-determination, by creating a smokescreen of political activity. Whereas, the legitimacy of the elections would continue to remain questionable, due to IOJ&K being a disputed territory, as well as the conditions under which the polls are being conducted.
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