As the United States braces for another presidential election, a significant undercurrent is influencing the future of American governance. Project 2025, spearheaded by The Heritage Foundation, is an in-depth conservative blueprint focused on increasing presidential authority, overhauling government agencies, and advancing far-right policy objectives in the US and with $22 million dedicated to its execution. Abridged into a 922-page document, Project 2025 sets forth an ambitious agenda for the next Republican government – one that it likens to a “second American Revolution”. As Project 2025 gains traction with Donald Trump’s potential return to power, critical questions arise about its impact on American political institutions, governance, democracy, and the society at large.
Essentially, the project seeks to restructure the federal bureaucracy and calls for a significant reduction in the size and influence of government agencies. It advocates the abolition of the so-called “deep state” by shrinking major federal agencies, reforming civil service protection, and increasing presidential control over what has conventionally been a nonpartisan federal workforce.
With respect to specific departmental changes, Project 2025 proposes the dismantling of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), with its operations redistributed to other federal departments. Duties related to immigration would be consolidated into a new, standalone Cabinet-level agency. Likewise, the plan recommends the elimination of the Department of Education. Instead, it proposes to return the control of educational policy to the states and promote school choice programmes that channel public funds into private and religious schools. Moreover, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) would also face substantial reduction, with a shift in focus away from climate change initiatives in favour of fossil fuels.
On social issues, the project outlines a conservative agenda aimed at reversing progressive advances in gender and family rights. It supports traditional family structures and proposes rolling back of federal policies related to gender-affirming care. The plan also advocates for stricter abortion regulations, including the enforcement of the Comstock Act to prohibit the mailing of abortion-related drugs and the establishment of a “pro-life task force” to replace the Reproductive Healthcare Access Task Force. Furthermore, immigration reforms are a central pillar of Project 2025, anticipating mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, the completion of the US-Mexico border wall, and the tightening of asylum policies.
While Trump has publically distanced himself from it, labelling some of its ideas as “ridiculous”, his campaign’s alignment with many of its proposals suggests a complex relationship. Trump’s disavowal contrasts with the significant involvement of his former officials, such as Roger Severino and Chris Miller, in the project’s development, indicating a potential divergence between his personal stance and the project’s broader agenda.
This disjunction has become a focal point in political debates, with democrats, legal experts, and political commentators, using Project 2025 as a symbol of a potential shift towards authoritarianism. The proposal is also criticised for potentially reviving a spoils system, and undermining the merit-based federal employment system established by the Pendleton Act. On the other hand, Republicans, including figures like Senator JD Vance, defend it as a necessary corrective to perceived bureaucratic overreach.
As a global superpower, the US foreign policy decisions invariably impact smaller and middle powers, and Pakistan is no exception. Therefore, Project 2025, envisioning a second Trump term, could significantly impact Pakistan through intensified diplomatic, economic, and security challenges due to his “America First” policies and his administration’s previous strained relationship with the country. A key concern for Pakistan would be the potential continuation and escalation of the US administration’s tough stance on its counterterrorism efforts, which could lead to reduced aid or sanctions, impacting its economic stability.
Geopolitically, a second Trump term could likely see the US strengthening ties with India to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific, creating a regional imbalance that could push Pakistan into a more defensive stance. This growing US-India partnership may further isolate Pakistan, complicating its strategic position in South Asia and tilting the power dynamics in India’s favour.
In a potential second Trump term, stringent immigration policies could initially increase remittances as Pakistani immigrants, facing renewed discrimination and deportation threats, send more money home. However, in the longer term, such policies may deter future migration and lead to a decline in remittances.
Climate change, an often overlooked factor, would also bear considerable consequences under a second Trump term. If Trump resumes his previous approach of withdrawing from climate agreements and dismantling regulations, Pakistan, highly vulnerable to climate change, would suffer. This could exacerbate rising sea levels, droughts, and extreme weather, destabilising agriculture and displacing millions.
All in all, Project 2025 represents a bold and far-reaching vision for the next Republican administration, deeply rooted in conservative ideology and aimed at reshaping key aspects of American governance. With its potential global impact, including significant implications for Pakistan, there is a critical need for ongoing scrutiny of such initiatives. However, Pakistan has avenues to deal these challenges effectively by leveraging its strategic location and deepening partnerships with countries like China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Moreover, strengthening alliances with emerging economies can also help mitigate the fallout from strained US relations, positioning Pakistan as a more influential player in regional geopolitics.
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