The intensifying confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has rapidly evolved into one of the most consequential geopolitical crises of the contemporary era. What began as a long-standing pattern of indirect rivalry has now transitioned into a direct and expansive military confrontation, reshaping regional dynamics and sending shockwaves across the global economy. While the conflict is widely framed in terms of nuclear non-proliferation, a closer examination suggests that a deeper strategic objective ‘regime change’ in Iran may be shaping the trajectory of the war.
February 28th marked the launch of Operation Epic Fury, during which the United States, in coordination with Israel, carried out large-scale strikes across Iran. The campaign deployed a wide array of military capabilities across air, land, and sea, targeting Iranian air defence systems, missile infrastructure, naval assets, and command-and-control facilities. According to the US military assessments, thousands of targets have been struck, including key ballistic missile launch sites and strategic installations. The breadth and depth of these operations raise an important question: if the objective were limited to preventing nuclear proliferation, would such a wide-ranging military campaign be necessary?
Tehran’s response has been equally expansive. Iran has launched widespread missile and drone attacks targeting the US military facilities across the region, including Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Al-Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and Prince Sultan Airbase in KSA. Iranian strikes have also extended toward Israel and other regional actors, marking one of the largest escalations in decades. Reports indicate that Iran has launched over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since the start of the conflict, underscoring both its retaliatory capacity and its determination to resist external pressure.
This rapid escalation reflects a deeper transformation in the nature of the rivalry. For decades, tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel were largely managed through indirect means. Iran relied on allied non-state actors to project influence, while its adversaries’ employed sanctions, intelligence operations and limited military strikes. However, the gradual erosion of the boundary between proxy warfare and direct confrontation has introduced a far more volatile and unpredictable strategic environment.
The scale and pattern of the US military operations indicate a shift toward a more ambitious strategic objective. The systematic targeting of command structures, internal security networks, and military leadership goes beyond degrading Iran’s external capabilities. Instead, it points toward an effort to weaken the institutional foundations of the Iranian state itself. This aligns with a long-standing, though often unstated, strategic logic in the US foreign policy: that lasting regional stability can only be achieved through political transformation within adversarial states.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has effectively become epicentre of the latest middle east conflict. Iran has signalled its willingness to disrupt shipping traffic, effectively turning the strait into a tool of economic leverage. The resulting decline in maritime transit has triggered volatility in global energy markets, pushing oil prices upward and raising fears of a broader economic crisis.
The US response has included efforts to mobilize an international naval coalition to secure the strait. However, key allies including France, Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom have shown reluctance to commit warships to such a high-risk environment. It reflects not only concerns about escalation but also scepticism regarding the true objectives of the campaign. If the mission were strictly about safeguarding maritime routes or preventing nuclear proliferation, broader international alignment might be expected. Instead, the cautious response suggests unease about being drawn into a conflict that could ultimately aim at regime change.
Statements from the US leadership further highlight these tensions. President Donald Trump has publicly pressured allies to contribute naval forces, even linking their response to the future of alliances such as NATO. Such pressure underscores the geopolitical stakes involved, while also revealing the difficulty Washington faces in building consensus around its strategy.
Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated notable resilience. Rather than collapsing under military pressure, its political and security institutions appear to be consolidating. Tehran has firmly rejected key Western demands, including the complete dismantling of its nuclear program, restrictions on its missile capabilities, and the abandonment of its regional alliances. From Iran’s perspective, these capabilities are essential for deterrence and survival particularly in the face of what it perceives as an existential threat.
The broader implications of the conflict extend far beyond the Middle East. The disruption of energy flows through the Gulf has direct consequences for global markets, especially for energy-dependent regions such as South Asia. Countries like Pakistan and India face significant economic risks in the event of prolonged instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
At a structural level, the crisis reflects the ongoing transition from a unipolar to a multipolar international system. As global power becomes more diffuse, conflicts such as this one are increasingly shaped by overlapping interests and competing strategic visions. The involvement or strategic restraint of major powers beyond the immediate conflict zone will play a critical role in determining its trajectory.
As of mid-March 2026, there is no clear path to de-escalation. Israeli airstrikes continue across Iranian territory, while Iran maintains its retaliatory campaigns across multiple domains. The conflict has expanded geographically and operationally, increasing the risk of a prolonged and potentially uncontrollable regional war.
Ultimately, the central question remains unresolved: is this war truly about preventing nuclear proliferation, or is it part of a broader effort to reshape Iran’s political system? The available evidence increasingly points toward the latter. If regime change is indeed an underlying objective, it represents a high-risk strategy with uncertain outcomes. History suggests that such efforts rarely produce stability and often generate long-term consequences that extend far beyond their original scope.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is therefore more than a regional security challenge—it is a reflection of the evolving nature of global power and the enduring complexities of interventionist strategies. How this conflict unfolds will not only determine the future of the Middle East but will also shape the contours of the emerging international order.
The United States now faces mounting pressure as Iran demonstrates a level of resilience that has exceeded initial expectations. Efforts to contain or weaken Tehran have instead revealed the limits of military intervention against a deeply entrenched state. Hence it proves that Washington’s strategy is once again seen as a miscalculation rather than a decisive success.
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