Space emerged as a contested domain with the launch of Sputnik-1. This satellite was launched into space by the Soviet Union, marking the beginning of the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the superpowers prioritized their space programs, and this period witnessed immense developments in their respective civilian and military space capabilities. From 1957 through 1990, the United States and the Soviet Union were responsible for 93 percent of all satellites launched into space, and 70 percent of those satellites were military satellites, linking their space programs to military power. In their pursuit of developing a space program, the United States conducted a successful Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test in 1959, followed by the Soviet Union in 1963. Soon after the end of the Cold War, many other countries showed their interest in becoming spacefaring nations. Similarly, China conducted its successful ASAT weapon test, followed by India’s in 2019. Presently, only four countries have this capability.
Space has become a crucial and contested domain, with powerful countries investing heavily in developing their space-related technologies and capabilities to secure their national interests. Military satellites are crucial as they are essential for guiding a missile accurately, detecting incoming missile launches, and early warning of potential attacks. Therefore, military satellites are vulnerable to potential attacks, compromising these features and providing strategic leverage to an adversary in a potential conflict. Thus, to protect their space-based assets, countries developed space forces. Some of them such as the United States, China, and Russia have robust space forces while others such as India are developing their space force – the Indian Air and Space Force.
Due to the anarchic nature and the power imbalance with India, Pakistan has always sought to strike a balance. Pakistan will balance the asymmetry with India; however, it is unclear what strategy Pakistan might adopt. In comparison to India’s space-related technologies, Pakistan is far from it. Although Pakistan has approved the National Space Program 2047, expressing its commitment to accelerating space activities. However, developing a robust space force and acquiring cutting-edge technologies demand a strong economy. While there is a potential for an arms race in space between India and Pakistan, this might have consequences for South Asian strategic stability.
India’s advancement in space capabilities, especially the improvement of military capabilities in outer space, is likely to lead to the emergence of an arms race in space with Pakistan, which would worsen instability in South Asia. Most of these concerns stem from India’s advancement and progress in space technology, highlighted by India’s successful ASAT weapon test. Forming a space force indicates that India intends to strengthen its military position in space. Furthermore, India and Pakistan’s historic and enduring rivalry makes their interactions more prone to competition in space. Any advancements made by India in space would lead Pakistan to respond by maintaining a strategic balance with it. India significantly leads Pakistan in space capabilities. Despite the economic strain, this would compel Pakistan to spend heavily in acquiring similar capabilities.
The impact of a potential arms race in space between India and Pakistan would be significant. This would worsen existing tensions, heighten distrust and suspicions, and increase the chances of mistakes and misunderstandings between them. Moreover, investing in developing their respective space military technologies could hinder socio-economic development in both countries. This would also impact and go against those international agreements aimed at preventing an arms race in space, thereby affecting global safety and governance and the peaceful exploration of space. An increased utilization of the space domain for military purposes might also precipitate the risk of misunderstandings or technical errors, leading to conflicts.
It is essential to reduce the risks associated with a potential space arms race. Therefore, various strategies are required. Foremost is promoting openness and Confidence-building Measures between India and Pakistan through data sharing, embarking on joint space projects, and communication. Also, improving the already existing international agreements that are aimed at banning the formation of space-based weapon systems would help in avoiding a possible space weapons race. Furthermore, promoting the peaceful utilization of space for purposes such as disaster management, climate observation, and research may encourage cooperation, confidence, and shared gains. International treaties prohibit indulging in an arms race in space. However, skepticism surrounds the credibility of these treaties, as states are driven by the need to protect and secure themselves from potential threats. States are still developing their space-based capabilities for military reasons, such as the United States intending to put ballistic missile defense systems in space, hence weaponizing space.
The shadow of a wider arms race in space looms over South Asia, primarily between India and Pakistan, given their shared history of conflicts and rivalry. The emergence of a space force presents a considerable challenge to regional stability. Driven by the significance of space security and the harsh realities of geopolitical competition, India’s space program has experienced a paradigm shift. Peaceful space exploration has remained an important aspect, but the strategic imperatives and national security concerns dominate the program’s trajectory. India’s national security concerns undeniably stand as the primary motivator behind the pursuit of its Space Force. Vital strategic drivers such as border security, information warfare, missile defense, and monitoring of the space domain shape India’s ambitions.
While the trajectory towards a full-fledged arms race in space could be avoided, its potential consequences are profound, encompassing heightened regional tensions and the diversion of resources away from critical domestic development imperatives. In addition, the potential outcome of targeting capabilities and enhanced space surveillance, encompassing false alarms, misinterpretations, and unintentional escalation, represent significant challenges that demand attention. It also raises concerns about potential future violations of international norms and treaties against the weaponization of space, permeating global space governance and prompting its spillover effects echoing across different regions. It is crucial to address and mitigate the associated risks and ensure a more stable and secure future for space exploration and utilization.
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