The Evolving Missile Threat in the Middle East

June 2025 witnessed an ominous power play in Middle Eastern politics as a sudden flurry of hostilities broke out between Iran and Israel. Shadowy threats materialized as missiles, drones, and precision airstrikes shattered borders and red lines. Although over 1,000 kilometers separate Israel and Iran Still, it starkly demonstrated how even vast geographic buffers are becoming obsolete. In an age dominated by hypersonic and long-range missile warfare. The first waves of attacks saw Iran fire 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at many of the country’s population centers, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Ashkelon. The Israeli defense systems scored a 90% interception record, though 24 Israelis were killed and more than 100 were wounded. This marked one of the most extensive coordinated missile barrages in the region’s recent history. Most rockets were fired from western Iran, the nearest area to Israel, and the country’s eastern regions were relatively unscathed and spared from direct reprisal. In retaliation, Israel carried out a series of surgical airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities. The rockets struck high-value targets in Tehran, including the national police headquarters and intelligence facilities that they believed were used to monitor domestic and foreign opponents. Iran announced 430 killed and more than 3,500 injured, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and at least half a dozen senior officers. The only high-ranking official who was not injured was said to be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Israel’s primary objective centered on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The Fordow and Arak nuclear facilities were among the most prominent sites to be assaulted. The Fordow enrichment site is embedded within a mountain and under reinforced concrete some 80-90 meters, and the plant was hit with 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs. The MOP, one of the world’s few weapons with the ability to penetrate so far down, is meant to cripple underground uranium enrichment facilities. While visuals are yet to be confirmed, reports claim three MOPs were used. The result is inconclusive. No visible surface damage has been confirmed to validate a successful strike.

Meanwhile, the Bushehr nuclear reactor, Iran’s singular operational reactor, was left untouched, though almost certainly because of the fear of radioactive fallout affecting neighboring Gulf states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which rely heavily on desalination plants for the drinking water of tens of millions. The confrontation served as a real-world testbed for advanced missile technology. Iran used a combination of conventional and hypersonic rocketry in the form of Fateh-1 and Fateh-2 missiles, with speeds exceeding Mach 5. These missiles are not only lethal but also maneuverable, which means that they are hard to intercept with conventional air defense systems. These advanced missiles, which penetrated Israel’s defense systems, were responsible for most of the confirmed casualties, a demonstration of how hypersonics are revolutionizing modern conflict. Despite common perception, the Iron Dome,  Israel’s celebrated short-range missile defense system,  played a relatively minor role in the latest conflict. It is most potent against short-range rockets typically launched by non-state actors like Hamas, not more advanced threats like ballistic or hypersonic missiles. Instead, Israel deployed its sophisticated, multi-tiered air defense system to shield the country from damage. Sitting atop the defense architecture, Arrow-3 is designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere. At home, Arrow-2 and David’s Sling served as the second line of defense, targeting mid-range rockets before they passed into Israeli airspace. Terminal phase intercepts were carried out in the final moments before impact by THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot systems, several of which were joint with U.S. forces.

Because Israel is so small, just 300 kilometers wide, many of these interceptions took place outside its borders, especially over Jordan, underlining the regional coordination and layered defense strategy that are necessary to fight off a large missile attack. When Iran and Israel traded missile fire in June 2025, The focus shifted from political symbolism to technological relevance. Not merely a political act but a milestone in military-technical evolution. It highlighted the increasing importance of missile velocity, precision intelligence, and multi-pronged defense. It also exposed the vulnerabilities of deeply burrowed nuclear sites and the threats of escalation in what was already a highly volatile region. As they both lick their wounds and Reassess their strategic strengths and vulnerabilities, one lesson is already evident: The next war in the Middle East may be fought not by soldiers on the ground, especially as drone warfare redefines the battlefield fought not by soldiers, but by fast, swarming, and deadlier machines in the sky.

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About Muhammad Danial Ilhsan 2 Articles
The writer has completed his graduation in Strategic Studies from the National Defence University and currently associate with government Think-Tank in Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected].

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