Recently, the United States and India signed a 10-year defense framework, which redefines the Indo-US partnership. The two sides have been signing several defense agreements over the last two decades to deepen cooperation in advanced military technologies, intelligence sharing, and joint defense production. This renewed defense pact is viewed through different lenses. For Washington, it is a keystone of its Indo-Pacific strategy for countering China. While, for India, it is considered an essential tool to modernize its defense capabilities. This pact has implications for the South Asian region by destabilizing the region, initiating a renewed arms race, and undermining prospects for peace efforts in the region.
The history of the defense partnership between India and the US dates back to the early twenty-first century. In January 2002, an agreement named the General Security of Military Information Agreement was signed between them to ensure the protection of shared classified information. In July 2005, both states signed the Civil Nuclear Deal as part of their commitment to their bilateral military relationship. This agreement served as a strategic thaw between both states and increasing nuclear cooperation with India. Furthermore, a series of foundational agreements took place, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, signed in August 2016, which provided them access to the military bases of each other for logistics purposes. Similarly, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, signed in 2018, led both states to enable secure communication and technology sharing. In 2020, for the facilitation of real-time geospatial intelligence sharing to India by the US, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement was signed. All these agreements laid the foundation for this new Defense Pact between them, which extends beyond previous areas of cooperation.
The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, called this pact “a cornerstone for regional stability and deterrence” and showed the mutual agreement to enhance coordination, information sharing, and technological cooperation. Many factors can explain the reason behind Washington and New Delhi’s move to strengthen their defense ties over this time span. Firstly, the hostile relations of India and China, which India justifies for its military modernization, for instance, the Galwan Valley clashes of 2020, motivated India to increase its military capabilities. Secondly, India follows Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-reliant India), which means to modernize the Indian defense system. Therefore, the Delhi Policy Group declares that collaboration with the US provides India with a faster path to self-reliant technological development. Thirdly, in the ongoing situation of the Russian-Ukrainian War, India is diversifying its military suppliers, as around 60-70% of India’s weapons are equipped with Russian Origin. Lastly, for the US, the pact shows the US geopolitical interest in the region and a counter to China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The pact has several implications for the security condition of South Asia. The pact will further shift the conventional power balance in the region by expanding India’s strategic reach with advanced US defense technologies, specifically in terms of surveillance, precision targeting, and command systems. It could further widen the regional disequilibrium between India and Pakistan. This pact could blur the lines between the conventional arena and the nuclear one. For instance, India’s improved early warning and target acquisition systems can raise escalation risks. Additionally, it can exert pressure on Pakistan to strengthen its deterrence capabilities by producing effective countermeasures. Similarly, China could enhance its military footprint by expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region to counter the emerging threats it may face from the India-US growing strategic partnership.
Certain steps are required for strategic stabilization and regional balance. India must ensure that its partnership with the US does not undermine strategic stability of South Asia. It must prioritize the regional stability over its interests, particularly in regards to Pakistan and China, as three states hold nuclear capabilities. Therefore, any uncalculated step might cause a major escalation in the region. India must invest in confidence-building measures to prevent misperceptions and maintain regional peace and balance. Consequently, Pakistan must utilize the multilateral and diplomatic forums for raising stability concerns, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Further, Pakistan must engage economically and diplomatically with the states to increase its economic capability. Pakistan should invest in and modernize its defense system so that it can exert similar pressure on India and maintain its position in the region. Simultaneously, the US must support the South Asian development and act as a stabilizing rather than militarizing the region. It is cleared that South Asia needs a multilateral effort for its development rather than such defense pacts. Through such forums dialogues can take place for the arms control, cyber security, crisis management, and economic development of the region.
To conclude, the new defense pact between India and the US could have exert multiple implications for the region, which can affect the regional stability by destabilizing the region. It brings several challenges for South Asian stability. It can start a new wave of arms race between the potential rivals, by leading Pakistan to strengthen its defense partnership with China, and by triggering China to expand its military capabilities. Lastly, this pact could be “a pathway for regional instability.”
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