Pakistan’s threat perception focused primarily on India has significant impact on Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and missile programme. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine underscores deterrence capability aimed at countering potential threats from India; and therefore as per need, Pakistan has been advancing to strengthen its defence capabilities factually in reaction to the conventional military superiority that India has against Pakistan. The strategic balance in South Asia necessitates Pakistan to develop long-range capabilities
Pakistan’s threat perception in developing its long range missiles is primarily driven by India alone. It is augmented by India’s development of the sea-based nuclear capabilities, having potentially destabilizing consequences for South Asian deterrence stability, and intensifying arms race in the region. Additionally, India’s growing fissile material and development of the dual-use missiles with battlefield capabilities, such as the Brahmos, create real threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty. Therefore, to uphold deterrence stability against India’s nuclear as well as conventional capabilities, Pakistan has to have a strategically diversified nuclear arsenal.
Pakistan’s missile program has always been perceived in a regional context and does not pose direct threat to any extra-regional state. While Pakistan’s military capabilities do not threaten the US or any other extra-regional actor, they do balance India’s military advancements, which are supported or assisted by the US. The U.S. has been imposing limitations on Pakistan’s defense while supporting India’s nuclear capabilities, which is why Pakistan is being dragged into an arms race to at least manage the asymmetry with India. Validly to escape the arms race, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, which does not have the no first policy, becomes a legitimate response to India’s provocations as well as the US’ destabilizing pressure against Pakistan. The U.S.-India alignment, despite being anti-China, does undermine Pakistan’s legitimate concerns regarding its sovereignty.
However, what might be the purpose of Pakistan developing long-range missiles seems to be wrongly assessed by the American sanctions regime. Pakistan’s development of long-range missiles is driven by its desire to uphold a credible nuclear deterrent against India. Pakistan’s strategy of “full spectrum deterrence,” encompasses short-range missiles to counter India’s limited conventional operations to longer-range missiles for the purpose of counter-value and counterforce targeting. For instance, Pakistan’s short-range missiles can fit into the response to India’s ever-evolving war-fighting doctrines, like the Cold Start. Therefore, the increase and advancement of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal need not to be taken as proliferation attempts, instead as a vital security interest to keep effective deterrent against India’s expanding nuclear and conventional capabilities and strategic positioning in Pakistan’s neighborhood.
Four Pakistani entities have been recently subjected to sanctions by the US because of their alleged involvement in the country’s long-range ballistic missile program. Motivated by concerns over nuclear weapons proliferation and the strategic stability of the region, the imposed sanctions freeze the US assets owned by the companies under concern and bar American companies from engaging in business with them. At the same time, US Deputy National Security Advisor, Jon Finer, warned of Pakistan’s development of long-range missiles “will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States” and that is an “emerging threat to the United States”. Pakistan’s Foreign Office, while criticizing the sanctions, stated that the sanctions contradict Pakistan’s efforts to peace and security by further deteriorating the military asymmetries in South Asia, and having dangerous implications for region’s strategic stability. Pakistan called it as ‘US’ discriminatory behaviour in the nonproliferation norms, highlighting discriminatory licensing of the advanced military technology relaxed for selected nations.
Notably, the India – U.S. nuclear deal does challenge the international nonproliferation norms, primarily the Non-Proliferation Treaty, since it grants India exception to the nuclear supply guidelines, which means the US aims to integrate India into the group of the “responsible” nuclear states. It does strengthen the India – US partnership in the ‘Indo-Pacific’, however, it violates the established international non-proliferation norms, and also indicates a shift in the US non-proliferation policy which is now driven by American interests rather than International Law.
Such selected waivers highlight weakening international non-proliferation regime. The US has consistently shown increasing support towards India’s proliferation of long-range ballistic missile capabilities, notably its Agni IRBM test, as well as of its missile defenses. The United States export controls on technology have encouraged India to acquire self-sufficiency in its missiles and the space-launch vehicles. The US has transferred the dual-use technologies, including advanced satellites, aero-engines and booster rocket technology to India. Though this exceptionalism of the US towards India is prompted by the US’ urge to integrate India in its integrated deterrence framework to counterbalance China in the Asia Pacific and at the same time knowing that India’s military readiness is insufficient to perform the duty, the US is violating the non-proliferation norms when it comes to technological transfers to India and on the other hand, imposing sanctions on Pakistan’s missile program despite the fact that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine clearly outlines Pakistan’s India centric threat perception.
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