Illicit Sale of Fissile Material in India: Its Potential Impacts on the Region

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A famous proverb says, “A thief is not the one who steals, but the one that gets caught”. This proverb is generally directed at thieves who get caught, and that one who does not get caught on stealing might not be known to anyone. Here it is referred to the ‘radioactive thieves’ in India that were caught and arrested on Friday, 9^th of August in Kuchaikote village of Gopalganj district of the Indian state of Bihar. However, this is part of the picture that is only evident to the public eye. There is surely more to it. Ever since this incident, media outlets all over the region seem to be in a panic after the news went on air by the Times of India. This is because this arrest was not an ordinary theft arrest, it was carried out after a raid was conducted on the area mentioned in a tip-off given to the police. The raid resulted in a seizure of some 50 grams of Californium which is worth $100 million. These thieves were reportedly trying to smuggle this quantity of the element. Californium, as we all know is a synthetic highly radioactive element used in nuclear power plants, metal detectors, and to detect metal fatigue and stress in airplanes. The point here is that this is not the first time that such a highly toxic and radioactive substance has been stolen in India. Three such incidents have already occurred in India back in 2021 and more in the past as well. Also, as of last month, a radioactive device was reported to have been stolen from India’s very well-known Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). All of these events are directed towards something way bigger than they seem as of now and are of grave concern to all stakeholders.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office has shown its concern over the illicit sale of nuclear and radioactive material in India and has asked India to investigate the issue and prevent its recurrence. The Foreign Office also demanded a disclosure as to how a Sealed Radioactive Source (SRS) material, like Californium, was in the possession of the arrested individuals. These developments underscore India’s ability to adequately safeguard its nuclear facilities. It shows India’s irresponsible nature as a nuclear state and its failure to protect its arsenal will put the whole region in jeopardy.

The Foreign Office spokesperson of Pakistan has shown its concern over the prospect of the existence of a nuclear black market that facilitates the sale of such material. Because the sale and purchase of such materials are banned in India, it can be assumed that such material is likely used for smuggling if caught in such amount. Also, there is the prospect of the presence of SRS material in bulk to store this radioactive material which makes these involved individuals prone to develop nuclear weapons. This frequency of repetitive theft incidents in India mainly suggests firstly that there is a gap in the material handling and control system in India. Second, there is an involvement of insiders, and third, there is a serious issue with the nuclear security culture in India. Because, as mentioned above, this is not the first time India has been accused of nuclear theft. Similar thefts have been carried out in India at various times in the past. An account of these thefts is given in the table below.

Impacts on Nuclear Safety and Security

As the region’s inaugural nuclear power, such reckless conduct from India is intolerable and bears consequences not only for itself but the whole region. First and foremost, this material is enough to be used as an explosive material and can be used in a ‘dirty bomb’ which is not safe for India itself let alone neighbors and the whole region. In case the weapons developed out of this material are used anywhere in South Asia, among all other consequences it will lead to significant loss of life, displacement, and long-term environmental damage. It will bring into question South Asia’s explosive material management as a whole and give rise to a new security dilemma in an already present pool of other dilemmas.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, given the history between the two countries, any mishap will result in serious consequences.  This can also be exploited by non-state actors who benefit from India and Pakistan’s antagonism. The radioactive materials can be used as a tool by these non-state actors on the bordering lines making Pakistan especially vulnerable. If anything happens, India will most probably deny it because it will have no one to blame, and Pakistan will righteously protest in return and defend itself. Any miscalculation or misinterpretation could in such cases lead to war between the two.

Strategies to Mitigate Nuclear Theft Risks in India

Being a responsible and meticulous nuclear power state, the prevention of the recurrence of this situation is of serious concern for Pakistan. In this very serious perilous situation, the concerns of the Pakistani Foreign Office should not be neglected. As it is not the concern of an enemy here, it is the concern of a neighboring nuclear power state and it is for the good of the whole region that the recurrence of such events is prevented at all costs. In this regard, the Western proliferators need to consider this and raise eyebrows at India just like they do at Iran and other countries at the slightest inconvenience when it comes to nuclear. India needs to be questioned about this negligence and held responsible for this. Also, it needs to protect its nuclear and radioactive materials from falling into the wrong hands and being misused in the future. In this regard, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should intervene to oversee India’s management and safeguarding of its nuclear facilities, ensuring stringent adherence to international safety protocols ensuring the prevention of catastrophic consequences of any mishandling over the whole region of South Asia. Furthermore, India needs to take serious precautionary measures to ensure the prevention of such incidents from occurring. For that, India needs to investigate these incidents from the grassroots level, hold the apprehended individuals accountable in the international court, and have them punished as per law. Also, it needs to cast out all such internal networks that are involved in the sale and purchase of fissile material. For that, a system of giving cash rewards in return for a tip-off regarding such thefts be ensured. In all of this process, India needs to take into confidence the region and across to ensure the world that it has taken precautionary measures.

To sum it up, given the complexities of the situation, it is imperative to not only acknowledge the potential risks but to actively pursue required measures that can pave the way for a more secure and stable future not only for India or its neighbors but the whole region.