Since the start of Russia-Ukraine war, the drone warfare has seen a dramatic shift where drones are used in attritional operations. One can argue that Ukraine, despite its financial and operational problems, has utilized drones far better than Russia. Just recently, Ukraine reportedly attacked a Russian submarine present at the naval base at Novorossiysk using Sub Sea Baby drone on 15th December. While the Russian Ministry of Defence on Telegram claims the attack failed with no damage to its docked vessels, footage released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) appears to show an underwater drone striking an Improved Kilo-class submarine. If it is a direct hit as claimed by the SBU, it is an approximately $400 million dollar loss of Russian military equipment and the first instance of a submarine being hit by Ukrainian drone. Even if not destroyed, partial damage might still be greater than the total cost of the submerged drone used by Ukraine.
Sub Sea Baby is an Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) drone developed by Ukraine capable of remaining submerged during an attack run and is most likely developed from the Ukrainian Sea Baby Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV). The UUV probably worked like an autonomous torpedo as the footage released shows many other ships present on port, and the drone may have to take several twists and turns to hit the docked submarine. In the past also, Ukraine has been attacking Russia’s “shadow fleet” of vessels using multitude of drones and previously the attacks have been acknowledged by Russian President Vladamir Putin who wanted to restrict Ukraine’s access to Black Sea in retaliation for attacks on Russian ships. The Ukrainian drone strike on Russian Submarine represents an unprecedent attack on Russian underwater assets and has probably intensified a maritime side of the conflict.
While significant, this drone attack does not set a new precedent drone attacks on Russian assets are not new. Earlier in June, Ukraine pulled off its most technologically advanced operation since the start of the war. Ukraine’s SBU deployed 117 First Person View (FPV) drones in a coordinated, sweeping strike targeting five major Russian airbases. According to one report, 41 aircraft of Russian Airforce were either partially or destroyed, which included strategic bombers and surveillance planes with an estimated $7 billion loss. The drones were modified for long-distance navigation and smuggled covertly inside Russia and launched from “kit homes” loaded on trucks.
These drone strikes represent the sophistication of attacks at a relatively low financial cost. Few million-dollar drones were able to destroy billions of dollars of Russian strategic assets and similarly, a probably cheaper Ukrainian Sea Baby was able to destroy a multi-million-dollar Russian submarine. The low cost has enabled the protraction of the conflict where a smaller adversary can face a much larger and resourceful opponent.
For instance, Ukraine no longer needs to utilize its air force for offensive operations against Russia, as it would risk an expensive aircraft being shot down and the pilot being either killed or captured. Instead, low-cost drones may be used, not just as a force multiplier but as an air force in its own right to strike deep inside Russian territory without risking the loss of a multi-million-dollar fighter jet or a human life.
Drones represent a pivotal shift in sustenance and protraction of warfare at a lower cost and at operational and strategic effectiveness. Due to democratization of drones, militarily weaker states like Ukraine have found useful and cost-effective way to overcome a larger and resourceful adversary. While outdated doctrinal problems of Russia as written by Bob Woodward in his book “War” does play a role, however role of low-cost drones can no longer be ignored. In a conflict where air superiority will be contested, drones will continue to play a pivotal role.
The May conflict between Pakistan and India also saw a similar principle, where Pakistan shot down a number of Indian fighter jets, both states then shifted to sending drones and missiles into each other territories with India using Brahmos and Israeli-made Harop drones and Pakistan using Fatah-I and Fatah-II rocket artillery systems and hunter killer drones. It won’t be surprising if in their next conflicts, both sides utilize more of their unmanned assets, rather than their Airforce.
Ultimately, the shift towards drone-centric warfare, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine war proves that the democratization of drones has fundamentally altered the calculus of modern attrition. By swapping multi-million-dollar platforms like fighter jets for low-cost, expendable unmanned systems, smaller nations can now bypass traditional barriers of air superiority to inflict catastrophic strategic losses on much larger adversaries. This transition from drones as mere “force multipliers” to primary offensive assets not only preserves human life and expensive hardware but also ensures that future conflicts, whether in Europe or South Asia, will increasingly be defined by remote, cost-effective precision rather than conventional doctrinal dominance.
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